Japan Economist, Japan Macro Advisors

Takuji Okubo

Japan Economist

Concise and Insightful Analysis on Japan Economy

Japan Macro Advisors

Our mission is to provide a concise and timely analysis on the Japanese economy for the benefit of global audiences. Communication, especially in foreign languages, has always been a weakness for the Japanese, which was fine when Japan's economic might attracted foreign media and various other institutions to study and report on Japan - such days are long gone. In the last two decades, we saw foreign institutions reallocating their resources from Japan to other more exciting parts of the world. As a result, when we read reporting on Japan in foreign media, we sense a subtle but noticeable decline in the depth of understanding what is actually happening in Japan.

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight"><p>Judging by the weak industrial output and retail sales for January, there is a good chance that the January-March quarter may show negative growth for Japan, ending the now-8-quarters-long positive growth streak. The poor economic activity in January is due to transitory factors and there is yet no reason to turn pessimistic on Japan's growth outlook though. Seeing a termination of the growth streak may also be a good wake up call for Japanese policymakers who have become complacent about…</p></div>

Judging by the weak industrial output and retail sales for January, there is a good chance that the January-March quarter may show negative growth for Japan, ending the now-8-quarters-long positive growth streak. The poor economic activity in January is due to transitory factors and there is yet no reason to turn pessimistic on Japan's growth outlook though. Seeing a termination of the growth streak may also be a good wake up call for Japanese policymakers who have become complacent about…

<p>Core inflation remained low in Japan. The overall consumer price index did rise by 1.4% year on year (YoY) in January 2018, but the rises are due to the inflation in fresh food prices and in energy prices, both external and transitory factors for the Japanese economy. Excluding fresh food and energy, the rise in the National CPI was mere 0.4% YoY in January.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/045/342/original/jma_chart_png_undefined_0%20%2853%29.png?1519357931" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="45342"></figure><p>One could still argue that there has been a rise in inflation in the past 6 months. The inflation in the CPI excluding fresh food and energy…</p>

Core inflation remained low in Japan. The overall consumer price index did rise by 1.4% year on year (YoY) in January 2018, but the rises are due to the inflation in fresh food prices and in energy prices, both external and transitory factors for the Japanese economy. Excluding fresh food and energy, the rise in the National CPI was mere 0.4% YoY in January.One could still argue that there has been a rise in inflation in the past 6 months. The inflation in the CPI excluding fresh food and energy…

Slow Inflation to Prompt BoJ to Turn More Dovish

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>There is a significant degree of USD weakness that has been unrelated to the relative improvement in its yield advantage, whether that be short or long term yields, real or nominal.  This has made it hard to predict USD exchange rates, generating uncertainty and a pervasive bearishness towards the USD that is hard to shake.  However, we may have got to a point where the USD has become so significantly stretched from yield spreads that it is resisting further depreciation.  Furthermore, US economic activity and inflation risks have accelerated compared to most other countries.</em></p>

There is a significant degree of USD weakness that has been unrelated to the relative improvement in its yield advantage, whether that be short or long term yields, real or nominal.  This has made it hard to predict USD exchange rates, generating uncertainty and a pervasive bearishness towards the USD that is hard to shake.  However, we may have got to a point where the USD has become so significantly stretched from yield spreads that it is resisting further depreciation.  Furthermore, US economic activity and inflation risks have accelerated compared to most other countries.

Amareos

Ryan Shea

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Introduction</h2><p><em>One of the numerous criticisms directed towards President Trump is that he tends to view everything as a zero-sum game. Almost certainly informed by his years as a corporate deal-maker, every gain made comes at someone else’s expense. Such thinking seems to be behind the administration’s recent greenlighting of tariffs on US steel and aluminium imports. The recently issued reports<sup>1</sup> by Commerce Secretary Ross cited “national security concerns” for supporting the imposition of tariffs.</em>…</p>

IntroductionOne of the numerous criticisms directed towards President Trump is that he tends to view everything as a zero-sum game. Almost certainly informed by his years as a corporate deal-maker, every gain made comes at someone else’s expense. Such thinking seems to be behind the administration’s recent greenlighting of tariffs on US steel and aluminium imports. The recently issued reports1 by Commerce Secretary Ross cited “national security concerns” for supporting the imposition of tariffs.…

The Market Sentimentalist - Zero-Sum (Thoughts on G3 Currencies)

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<p>For Elliott wave reasons, the area around Topix 1,680 has become critical.  Whilst that broadly holds, the odds favour a final fun to new highs along with the US, assuming the action in the Dollar/Yen does not hinder that bullish influence.  However, of the 11 indicators we follow which give directional signals, only one (13-week ADX) is signalling that a new high is likely.  The others all contain divergence warnings to some degree.</p>

For Elliott wave reasons, the area around Topix 1,680 has become critical.  Whilst that broadly holds, the odds favour a final fun to new highs along with the US, assuming the action in the Dollar/Yen does not hinder that bullish influence.  However, of the 11 indicators we follow which give directional signals, only one (13-week ADX) is signalling that a new high is likely.  The others all contain divergence warnings to some degree.

Topix: Why 1,680 Is Critical to the 20-Month Uptrend

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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JPY (USDJPY CURNCY)

The Growth Streak For Japan May End Soon

Judging by the weak industrial output and retail sales for January, there is a good chance that the January-March quarter may show negative growth...

Takuji Okubo

Slow Inflation to Prompt BoJ to Turn More Dovish

Core inflation remained low in Japan. The overall consumer price index did rise by 1.4% year on year (YoY) in January 2018, but the rises are due...

Takuji Okubo

Time for the USD to Fight-Back

There is a significant degree of USD weakness that has been unrelated to the relative improvement in its yield advantage, whether that be short or...

Greg Gibbs

The Market Sentimentalist - Zero-Sum (Thoughts on G3 Currencies)

IntroductionOne of the numerous criticisms directed towards President Trump is that he tends to view everything as a zero-sum game. Almost...

Amareos

Topix: Why 1,680 Is Critical to the 20-Month Uptrend

For Elliott wave reasons, the area around Topix 1,680 has become critical. Whilst that broadly holds, the odds favour a final fun to new highs...

Peter Beuttell

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