Multi-asset Macro/Emerging Markets Strategist

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.<ul class=""><li>This week in trade ideas: Short NKY and USD-JPY. Still short US tech vs SPX. Contrarian long Russia equities vs EM. Stay long Saudi equities post-FTSE Russell index decision. No longer positioned for RMB basket-depreciation near-term. Take profit on short Philippine and Indian equities, long Malaysia. Close AUD-NZD.</li><li>Monday: New Zealand trade, Fed Mester, EU-UK discuss Irish border, Egypt elections (Mon-Wed)</li><li>Tuesday: Sweden economic tendency, $35bn 5yr UST auction, Hungary MNB, Argentina BCRA, Fed Bostic</li><li>Wednesday: Germany consumer confidence, $29bn 7yr UST auction, Thailand BOT, South Africa SARB, FTSE Russell index decision for Saudi Arabia</li><li>Thursday: Japan retail sales, Germany CPI, Canada GDP, US personal income/spending, Turkey GDP, Czech CNB, Egypt CBE</li><li>Friday: Japan jobs/Tokyo CPI/IP, Turkey trade, Holidays (US, Singapore, HK, EU, UK, among others)</li><li>Saturday: China NBS PMI</li><li>Corporate earnings: Agribank, Sinopec, China Vanke, China Evergrand (Mon), ICBC, CCB, Kweichow Moutai, Lululemon (Tue), Walgreens Boots, Monsanto, Citic, China Everbright (Wed), Bank of China, Bank of Communications, SAIC Motor, CNOOC, BOC HK (Thu)</li><li>Market holidays: US, Singapore, HK, Australia, NZ, EU, UK, Canada, Mexico, Brazil (Good Friday)</li></ul>

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.This week in trade ideas: Short NKY and USD-JPY. Still short US tech vs SPX. Contrarian long Russia equities vs EM. Stay long Saudi equities post-FTSE Russell index decision. No longer positioned for RMB basket-depreciation near-term. Take profit on short Philippine and Indian equities, long Malaysia. Close AUD-NZD.Monday: New Zealand trade, Fed Mester, EU-UK discuss Irish border, Egypt elections (Mon-Wed)Tuesday: Sweden economic tendency, $35bn 5yr UST auction, Hungary MNB, Argentina BCRA, Fed BosticWednesday: Germany consumer confidence, $29bn 7yr UST auction, Thailand BOT, South Africa SARB, FTSE Russell index decision for Saudi ArabiaThursday: Japan retail sales, Germany CPI, Canada GDP, US personal income/spending, Turkey GDP, Czech CNB, Egypt CBEFriday: Japan jobs/Tokyo CPI/IP, Turkey trade, Holidays (US, Singapore, HK, EU, UK, among others)Saturday: China NBS PMICorporate earnings: Agribank, Sinopec, China Vanke, China Evergrand (Mon), ICBC, CCB, Kweichow Moutai, Lululemon (Tue), Walgreens Boots, Monsanto, Citic, China Everbright (Wed), Bank of China, Bank of Communications, SAIC Motor, CNOOC, BOC HK (Thu)Market holidays: US, Singapore, HK, Australia, NZ, EU, UK, Canada, Mexico, Brazil (Good Friday)

Week Ahead in Global Macro: US Tech and Trade Risks, China PMI, FTSE on Saudi, SARB, Good Friday

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

Technical Analysis

US Dollar, Euro, Sterling, Yen crosses - summary of conclusions: <ul><li>The Dollar Index has achieved almost all we expected of it on the downside, but there is still conflict in the signals. It has produced the minimum pattern needed to end the 5-wave decline from the 2017 high, and its initial rally off the recent low was a 5-waver. However, that is not automatically bullish, and there was almost no bullish divergence in the daily indicators at the low, although the medium-term indicators have…</li></ul>

US Dollar, Euro, Sterling, Yen crosses - summary of conclusions: The Dollar Index has achieved almost all we expected of it on the downside, but there is still conflict in the signals. It has produced the minimum pattern needed to end the 5-wave decline from the 2017 high, and its initial rally off the recent low was a 5-waver. However, that is not automatically bullish, and there was almost no bullish divergence in the daily indicators at the low, although the medium-term indicators have…

Japan Economist, Japan Macro Advisors

Takuji Okubo

Japan Economist

Concise and Insightful Analysis on Japan Economy

Japan Macro Advisors

Our mission is to provide a concise and timely analysis on the Japanese economy for the benefit of global audiences. Communication, especially in foreign languages, has always been a weakness for the Japanese, which was fine when Japan's economic might attracted foreign media and various other institutions to study and report on Japan - such days are long gone. In the last two decades, we saw foreign institutions reallocating their resources from Japan to other more exciting parts of the world. As a result, when we read reporting on Japan in foreign media, we sense a subtle but noticeable decline in the depth of understanding what is actually happening in Japan.

Macroeconomics

Poll results reported by various media this weekend showed that the approval rate for Prime Minister Abe is falling to new lows, raising a possibility that his government will not last for long. In three out of four media polls reported on Sunday, Asahi, Mainichi, Nippon TV and Kyodo, the approval rate hit the lowest rate since the current Abe government started in late 2012.  <a href="http://www.ntv.co.jp/yoron/201803/soku-index.html" target="_blank">Nippon TV's poll</a> put the approval rate at 30.3% and the disapproval rate at 53.0%. Among media polls we have been…

Poll results reported by various media this weekend showed that the approval rate for Prime Minister Abe is falling to new lows, raising a possibility that his government will not last for long. In three out of four media polls reported on Sunday, Asahi, Mainichi, Nippon TV and Kyodo, the approval rate hit the lowest rate since the current Abe government started in late 2012.  Nippon TV's poll put the approval rate at 30.3% and the disapproval rate at 53.0%. Among media polls we have been…

Abe Government Unlikely to Last Beyond This Summer

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

USD downside momentum and conviction has tapered off with the prospect of higher yields down the road but recent weakness has been more about USD outflows. Our cycle work is leaning to a final bout of USD weakness into our DXY 87 turn target zone that would act as a key turning point for the dollar.We have a key line in the sand for the 10yr yield at 3% above which would start to lend support for a USD bottom. The current yield posture implies we waffle within a correction falling wedge pattern…

USD downside momentum and conviction has tapered off with the prospect of higher yields down the road but recent weakness has been more about USD outflows. Our cycle work is leaning to a final bout of USD weakness into our DXY 87 turn target zone that would act as a key turning point for the dollar.We have a key line in the sand for the 10yr yield at 3% above which would start to lend support for a USD bottom. The current yield posture implies we waffle within a correction falling wedge pattern…

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.<ul class=""><li>This week in trade ideas: Strategic short US Treasury 10s on a medium-term upward drift in inflation. Long Korean equities on prospective reduction in geopolitical risk premium. We keep relative value long positioning in: US banks vs SPX, NOK vs SEK, Japanese steel vs US steel and Saudi equities vs EM. We add short Russia RUB to our watchlist.</li><li>Monday: Japan machine tool orders, 3/10yr UST auction, India CPI/IP, Italy PD meeting, Spain Catalonia parliament selects regional president</li><li>Tuesday: US CPI, 30yr UST auction, Australia home loans, Malaysia/Mexico IP, Argentina BCRA, US special election in Pennsylvania</li><li>Wednesday: BOJ minutes, China activity (retails/IP/FAI), Japan core machine orders, Sweden CPI, Argentina CPI, Germany Merkel inauguration</li><li>Thursday: NZ GDP, SNB/Norges Bank MPC, TIC flows, Indonesia/India trade, Philippines remittances, EU27 approves Brexit text</li><li>Friday: Japan IP, US housing starts, US UMich sentiment, Singapore NODX</li><li>Corporate earnings:  Bharti Airtel, Ayala Corp (PH) (Mon), Sberbank, Antofagasta (Tue), Inditex, Prudential, Lukoil, Adidas (Wed), Broadcom, Adobe, Petrobras, Audi, Dollar General, Tenaga, DP World (Thu), CK Hutchison, Tiffany (Fri)</li></ul>

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.This week in trade ideas: Strategic short US Treasury 10s on a medium-term upward drift in inflation. Long Korean equities on prospective reduction in geopolitical risk premium. We keep relative value long positioning in: US banks vs SPX, NOK vs SEK, Japanese steel vs US steel and Saudi equities vs EM. We add short Russia RUB to our watchlist.Monday: Japan machine tool orders, 3/10yr UST auction, India CPI/IP, Italy PD meeting, Spain Catalonia parliament selects regional presidentTuesday: US CPI, 30yr UST auction, Australia home loans, Malaysia/Mexico IP, Argentina BCRA, US special election in PennsylvaniaWednesday: BOJ minutes, China activity (retails/IP/FAI), Japan core machine orders, Sweden CPI, Argentina CPI, Germany Merkel inaugurationThursday: NZ GDP, SNB/Norges Bank MPC, TIC flows, Indonesia/India trade, Philippines remittances, EU27 approves Brexit textFriday: Japan IP, US housing starts, US UMich sentiment, Singapore NODXCorporate earnings:  Bharti Airtel, Ayala Corp (PH) (Mon), Sberbank, Antofagasta (Tue), Inditex, Prudential, Lukoil, Adidas (Wed), Broadcom, Adobe, Petrobras, Audi, Dollar General, Tenaga, DP World (Thu), CK Hutchison, Tiffany (Fri)

Week Ahead in Global Macro: US CPI, UST Auctions, China Activity, Norges Bank, NZ GDP

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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Week Ahead in Global Macro: US Tech and Trade Risks, China PMI, FTSE on Saudi, SARB, Good Friday

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas: Short NKY and USD-JPY. Still short US tech...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

US Dollar: Monthly Currency Focus

US Dollar, Euro, Sterling, Yen crosses - summary of conclusions: The Dollar Index has achieved almost all we expected of it on the downside, but...

Peter Beuttell

Abe Government Unlikely to Last Beyond This Summer

Poll results reported by various media this weekend showed that the approval rate for Prime Minister Abe is falling to new lows, raising a...

Takuji Okubo

USD Major Cycle Low in Sight

USD downside momentum and conviction has tapered off with the prospect of higher yields down the road but recent weakness has been more about USD...

Thomas Schroeder

Week Ahead in Global Macro: US CPI, UST Auctions, China Activity, Norges Bank, NZ GDP

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas: Strategic short US Treasury 10s on a...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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