Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist, Emvest Partners

Guillaume Coutant

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist

Cross-Asset Emerging Markets Technical Research

Emvest Partners

Emvest Partners is the leading independent French financial analyst specializing in Emerging Markets for  Asset Managers, Hedge Funds and Family Offices. The studies provided by Emvest Partners are based on a top-down, cross-asset and relative-value approach of the financial markets. The articulation of macroeconomic analysis and technical analysis improves the consistency of the recommendations, the mitigation of risks of error and a significant improvement in performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong>SYNTHESIS</strong></p><h2>1.    Bullish flattening expected on the THB swap curve:</h2><ul>
<li>THB swaps should be received by 73bps to 94bps.</li>
<li>The 1-5y THB swap curve is expected to flatten by 26bps to 41bps.</li>
</ul><h2>2.    THB appreciation and outperformance expected:</h2><ul>
<li>USDTHB bearish trend still valid.</li>
<li>THB outperformance against HKD and JPY. More potential against HKD, a higher carry against JPY.</li>
</ul><h2>3.    Bullish Thailand equities :</h2><ul><li>SET index expected to rise by 20/22%.</li></ul><p> </p><p><strong>RECOMMENDATION</strong></p><p>TIME HORIZON: 6-9 months                      CONVICTION:  excellent</p><p> </p><ul>
<li> Receiver TBSWNI5 below 2.30/2.49% towards 1.5850/1.37%.</li>
<li>Short USDTHB below 33.00/33.60.</li>
<li>Long THBHKD and THBJPY.</li>
</ul>

SYNTHESIS1.    Bullish flattening expected on the THB swap curve:
THB swaps should be received by 73bps to 94bps.
The 1-5y THB swap curve is expected to flatten by 26bps to 41bps.
2.    THB appreciation and outperformance expected:
USDTHB bearish trend still valid.
THB outperformance against HKD and JPY. More potential against HKD, a higher carry against JPY.
3.    Bullish Thailand equities :SET index expected to rise by 20/22%. RECOMMENDATIONTIME HORIZON: 6-9 months                      CONVICTION:  excellent 
 Receiver TBSWNI5 below 2.30/2.49% towards 1.5850/1.37%.
Short USDTHB below 33.00/33.60.
Long THBHKD and THBJPY.


Thailand: Receiver Swaps, Appreciation of the THB