Agri | Weather | Energy Transition, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Agri | Weather | Energy Transition

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Yen clocked its biggest one-day move since 12/Jan. It soared to 141.601 to the USD breaching past its 200d DMA before settling at 144.092.</li>
<li>Overnight-Indexed swaps show a 45% (up from 3.5% chance just 2-days back) chance that the BOJ would end its negative interest rates policy at this month’s meeting.</li>
<li>Leveraged funds have ramped up their net-short positioning in the yen, the most since April 2022, according to CFTC data. Liquidations might have triggered sharp moves.</li>
</ul>


The Yen clocked its biggest one-day move since 12/Jan. It soared to 141.601 to the USD breaching past its 200d DMA before settling at 144.092.
Overnight-Indexed swaps show a 45% (up from 3.5% chance just 2-days back) chance that the BOJ would end its negative interest rates policy at this month’s meeting.
Leveraged funds have ramped up their net-short positioning in the yen, the most since April 2022, according to CFTC data. Liquidations might have triggered sharp moves.


Yen Soars past 200d DMA Clocking a Record Daily Move on BoJ Governor Remarks

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD is trading positively on the session but movement is fairly limited and the DXY is holding within yesterday’s range which took the index just above the 200-day MA.</li><li>The DXY is holding right around that marker this morning, with movement across the core major currencies relatively limited.</li><li>The JPY and GBP are posting modest gains on the USD at writing while the AUD is underperforming after the RBA left policy unchanged but repeated its willingness to hike again if needed. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is trading positively on the session but movement is fairly limited and the DXY is holding within yesterday’s range which took the index just above the 200-day MA.The DXY is holding right around that marker this morning, with movement across the core major currencies relatively limited.The JPY and GBP are posting modest gains on the USD at writing while the AUD is underperforming after the RBA left policy unchanged but repeated its willingness to hike again if needed. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Holds Firm, Focus on JOLTS Data

<ul><li>Traders moved to cut overall USD longs further still in the past week’s CFTC data.</li><li>The prior week’s report showed aggregate, speculative USD longs were effectively halved ahead of Thanksgiving.</li><li>This week’s data shows another, sizeable reduction in net USD longs of USD3.3bn, taking the aggregate USD long held by Non-Commercial (speculative) accounts to just USD1.8bn. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Traders moved to cut overall USD longs further still in the past week’s CFTC data.The prior week’s report showed aggregate, speculative USD longs were effectively halved ahead of Thanksgiving.This week’s data shows another, sizeable reduction in net USD longs of USD3.3bn, taking the aggregate USD long held by Non-Commercial (speculative) accounts to just USD1.8bn. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative USD Longs Reduced Further

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from frosty Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial! The underlying demand trends are not strong.</li><li>Running credit card data has been weak in October/November, the credit impulse is worsening and there are signs of actual labour market softening around the otherwise sticky service sectors in the West, yet markets are partying like there is no tomorrow.</li><li>What is causing this disconnect and could it continue into the year-end?</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from frosty Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial! The underlying demand trends are not strong.Running credit card data has been weak in October/November, the credit impulse is worsening and there are signs of actual labour market softening around the otherwise sticky service sectors in the West, yet markets are partying like there is no tomorrow.What is causing this disconnect and could it continue into the year-end?

Steno Signals #76: The Fed Has Lost Control of Liquidity Trends

<ul><li>The USD is ending the week and starting the month somewhat on the defensive versus most major currencies although the DXY itself is little changed on the day.</li><li>FX is consolidating yesterday’s broad dollar gains which stalled right on the DXY’s 200-day MA (103.59). US Treasury yields are flat on the day while stocks are trading positively.</li><li>Despite yesterday’s recovery in the USD, headwinds—lower yields specifically but seasonal trends in December and broadly bearish technicals—all suggest more USD softness ahead in the next few weeks and perhaps beyond. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is ending the week and starting the month somewhat on the defensive versus most major currencies although the DXY itself is little changed on the day.FX is consolidating yesterday’s broad dollar gains which stalled right on the DXY’s 200-day MA (103.59). US Treasury yields are flat on the day while stocks are trading positively.Despite yesterday’s recovery in the USD, headwinds—lower yields specifically but seasonal trends in December and broadly bearish technicals—all suggest more USD softness ahead in the next few weeks and perhaps beyond. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Steadies Ahead of Fed Comments

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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JPY (USDJPY CURNCY)

Yen Soars past 200d DMA Clocking a Record Daily Move on BoJ Governor Remarks

Central Bank Governors are trained to speak sparsely. And there is a good reason for that. For when they speak, markets gyrate furiously. Short...

Mint Finance

FX Daily - USD Holds Firm, Focus on JOLTS Data

The USD is trading positively on the session but movement is fairly limited and the DXY is holding within yesterday’s range which took the index...

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative USD Longs Reduced Further

Traders moved to cut overall USD longs further still in the past week’s CFTC data. The prior week’s report showed aggregate, speculative USD longs...

Scotiabank

Steno Signals #76: The Fed Has Lost Control of Liquidity Trends

It seems like the narrative lags the actual price action. 2024 estimates/outlooks are turning upbeat, while positioning is one way traffic towards...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Steadies Ahead of Fed Comments

The USD is ending the week and starting the month somewhat on the defensive versus most major currencies although the DXY itself is little changed...

Scotiabank

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