Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! What a week.</li><li>The BoJ no longer has a firm guidance towards higher 10yr bond yields, the Fed accepted higher long bond yields as an excuse to pause and economic data has been abysmal.</li><li>That cocktail has so far allowed the everything rally to thrive in a way we haven’t seen in quarters, but the feedback loop introduced by the big central banks may limit the scope of the bear market rally.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! What a week.The BoJ no longer has a firm guidance towards higher 10yr bond yields, the Fed accepted higher long bond yields as an excuse to pause and economic data has been abysmal.That cocktail has so far allowed the everything rally to thrive in a way we haven’t seen in quarters, but the feedback loop introduced by the big central banks may limit the scope of the bear market rally.

Steno Signals #72 – When a Recession Meets a Melt-Up in Equities and Bonds

<ul><li>At this point in the policy path, our Central Bank Sentiment trackers are showing some meaningful signs of life – not of all it totally anticipated.</li><li>Here we highlight some key observations made over the last month around what Central Bank language is actually telling us from a quantitative point of view.</li><li>We regularly track and update our measure of positivity/negativity of Bank language contained in statements, outlooks and speeches on a scale of -1 to +1.</li></ul>

At this point in the policy path, our Central Bank Sentiment trackers are showing some meaningful signs of life – not of all it totally anticipated.Here we highlight some key observations made over the last month around what Central Bank language is actually telling us from a quantitative point of view.We regularly track and update our measure of positivity/negativity of Bank language contained in statements, outlooks and speeches on a scale of -1 to +1.

Sentiment Nugget: What are Central Banks Actually Telling Us?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD is mixed to weaker as equity markets push higher and US yields tumble.</li><li>The glaring exception is the JPY which is down more than 1% on the day following the BoJ policy decision earlier.</li><li>Markets are disappointed that the BoJ made only a modest change to its policy stance, announcing that it would take a more flexible approach to its YCC objective and would treat the 1% level for 10Y yields as a “reference point ” from now on.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is mixed to weaker as equity markets push higher and US yields tumble.The glaring exception is the JPY which is down more than 1% on the day following the BoJ policy decision earlier.Markets are disappointed that the BoJ made only a modest change to its policy stance, announcing that it would take a more flexible approach to its YCC objective and would treat the 1% level for 10Y yields as a “reference point ” from now on.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - Untangling USD Drivers into Year-End

<ul>
<li>The USD is firm against most of the majors as investor attention turns to the Fed.</li>
<li>The FOMC decision is expected to be a straightforward one —no change in policy and a statement (14ET) that largely reflects recent comments from senior Fed officials that they are in position to “proceed carefully ” on monetary policy for now.</li>
<li>That effectively means an extended hold, with more tightening not ruled out. Chairman Powell’s press conference starts around 14.30ET.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


The USD is firm against most of the majors as investor attention turns to the Fed.
The FOMC decision is expected to be a straightforward one —no change in policy and a statement (14ET) that largely reflects recent comments from senior Fed officials that they are in position to “proceed carefully ” on monetary policy for now.
That effectively means an extended hold, with more tightening not ruled out. Chairman Powell’s press conference starts around 14.30ET.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Firm Ahead of the FOMC, JPY Outperforms

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Global macro never sleeps, and this week is no exception with ongoing turmoil at the BOJ amidst their decision to change the YCC policy.</li><li>As always, we have collected 5 of the things we find to be the most important to watch in the current landscape.</li><li>YCC flexibility from the BOJ and more JPY weakness to come?</li></ul>

Global macro never sleeps, and this week is no exception with ongoing turmoil at the BOJ amidst their decision to change the YCC policy.As always, we have collected 5 of the things we find to be the most important to watch in the current landscape.YCC flexibility from the BOJ and more JPY weakness to come?

5 Things We Watch – BOJ, JPY, Treasury, Equities & Portfolio

Japan

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Steno Signals #72 – When a Recession Meets a Melt-Up in Equities and Bonds

The BoJ no longer has a firm guidance towards higher 10yr bond yields, the Fed accepted higher long bond yields as an excuse to pause and economic...

Steno Research

Sentiment Nugget: What are Central Banks Actually Telling Us?

Looking back over the past 10 years, ECB sentiment into and over October has been more negative than at any other point.

Steno Research

FX Snapshot - Untangling USD Drivers into Year-End

The USD is mixed to weaker as equity markets push higher and US yields tumble. The glaring exception is the JPY which is down more than 1% on the...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Firm Ahead of the FOMC, JPY Outperforms

The USD is firm against most of the majors as investor attention turns to the Fed. The FOMC decision is expected to be a straightforward one —no...

Scotiabank

5 Things We Watch – BOJ, JPY, Treasury, Equities & Portfolio

Global macro never sleeps, and this week is no exception with ongoing turmoil at the BOJ amidst their decision to change the YCC policy. As...

Steno Research

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