External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD’s consolidation is extending a little further after its early week decline, leaving it mixed versus the majors.</li><li>Asian regional FX is outperforming, perhaps reflecting relief that the Biden/Xi meeting ended without any hitch and with promises of improved relations.</li><li>Stocks are somewhat softer overall, however, while bonds are firmer (with Gilts outperforming slightly). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD’s consolidation is extending a little further after its early week decline, leaving it mixed versus the majors.Asian regional FX is outperforming, perhaps reflecting relief that the Biden/Xi meeting ended without any hitch and with promises of improved relations.Stocks are somewhat softer overall, however, while bonds are firmer (with Gilts outperforming slightly). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Mixed, Consolidation Extends

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>After a prolonged saga of stimulus negotiations and the expenditure of countless man-hours in preparation, it is evident that the Chinese stimulus can, at best, provide temporary relief to an ongoing structural issue that is not going away anytime soon.</li><li>While we received some positive numbers this week, with industrial production and consumer spending exceeding expectations, the housing market figures remain dismal and are unlikely to improve unless the CCP alters its course.</li><li>Apart from causing concern in the financial sector, the direct impact on the labor market is an often overlooked yet plainly evident consequence of the current crackdown on real estate</li></ul>

After a prolonged saga of stimulus negotiations and the expenditure of countless man-hours in preparation, it is evident that the Chinese stimulus can, at best, provide temporary relief to an ongoing structural issue that is not going away anytime soon.While we received some positive numbers this week, with industrial production and consumer spending exceeding expectations, the housing market figures remain dismal and are unlikely to improve unless the CCP alters its course.Apart from causing concern in the financial sector, the direct impact on the labor market is an often overlooked yet plainly evident consequence of the current crackdown on real estate

<ul><li>The USD retains a soft undertone but the DXY is essentially consolidating near yesterday’s closing low for the index as investors await developments.</li><li>Lower US CPI data has done a solid for EM FX while high beta FX is generally firmer on the session, reflecting a sea of green on the equity screens.</li><li>Asian markets rose strongly on the added impetus of a significant liquidity add by the PBoC through its medium-term lending facility. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD retains a soft undertone but the DXY is essentially consolidating near yesterday’s closing low for the index as investors await developments.Lower US CPI data has done a solid for EM FX while high beta FX is generally firmer on the session, reflecting a sea of green on the equity screens.Asian markets rose strongly on the added impetus of a significant liquidity add by the PBoC through its medium-term lending facility. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Steadies Ahead of Retail Sales

<ul><li>Last week’s broad rise in the USD is showing some signs of rolling over as markets position for the key economic releases due from the US in the next couple of days.</li><li>Today’s October CPI is expected to show a 0.1% rise in headline prices and a deceleration in the year-on-year rate to 3.3%, down from 3.7% in September.</li><li>Core prices are expected to rise 0.3% for a 4.1% gain in the October year—unchanged from September’s read. Retail Sales tomorrow are expected to reflect soft headline consumer activity in October (-0.3% m/m). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Last week’s broad rise in the USD is showing some signs of rolling over as markets position for the key economic releases due from the US in the next couple of days.Today’s October CPI is expected to show a 0.1% rise in headline prices and a deceleration in the year-on-year rate to 3.3%, down from 3.7% in September.Core prices are expected to rise 0.3% for a 4.1% gain in the October year—unchanged from September’s read. Retail Sales tomorrow are expected to reflect soft headline consumer activity in October (-0.3% m/m). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul>
<li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, which due to delays in the CFTC data has been postponed to today (data was available yesterday evening).</li>
<li>Almost as usual, markets find themselves in an odd position, as they await the next big event to move price action after Powell’s latest shocker a couple of weeks ago coupled with a severe sell-off in bonds in recent weeks.</li>
<li>Today’s CPI report will likely not change a whole lot, but equity markets may continue their run upward if we are right in our prediction from yesterday (more on that here).</li>
</ul>


Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, which due to delays in the CFTC data has been postponed to today (data was available yesterday evening).
Almost as usual, markets find themselves in an odd position, as they await the next big event to move price action after Powell’s latest shocker a couple of weeks ago coupled with a severe sell-off in bonds in recent weeks.
Today’s CPI report will likely not change a whole lot, but equity markets may continue their run upward if we are right in our prediction from yesterday (more on that here).


Positioning Watch – The Cocktail of Heavy Logs in Both Equities and Bonds

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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FX Daily - USD Mixed, Consolidation Extends

Asian regional FX is outperforming, perhaps reflecting relief that the Biden/Xi meeting ended without any hitch and with promises of improved...

Scotiabank

EM by EM #30 Pick-up from King Carry?

After a prolonged saga of stimulus negotiations and the expenditure of countless man-hours in preparation, it is evident that the Chinese stimulus...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Steadies Ahead of Retail Sales

The USD retains a soft undertone but the DXY is essentially consolidating near yesterday’s closing low for the index as investors await developments.

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Mixed Ahead of CPI

Last week’s broad rise in the USD is showing some signs of rolling over as markets position for the key economic releases due from the US in the...

Scotiabank

Positioning Watch – The Cocktail of Heavy Logs in Both Equities and Bonds

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, which due to delays in the CFTC data has been postponed to today (data was...

Steno Research

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