External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD ended 2023 on a soft note, but a little off the low made on December 28th which was the lowest the DXY traded at since July.</li><li>Overall, the DXY registered a down year in 2023, losing around 4% overall after two years of solid gains.</li><li>The holiday period has been relatively quiet. The JPY and CHF have tended to outperform since the 24th while sterling and the EUR are relative underperformers among the majors—but are effectively little changed since just before the holiday break. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD ended 2023 on a soft note, but a little off the low made on December 28th which was the lowest the DXY traded at since July.Overall, the DXY registered a down year in 2023, losing around 4% overall after two years of solid gains.The holiday period has been relatively quiet. The JPY and CHF have tended to outperform since the 24th while sterling and the EUR are relative underperformers among the majors—but are effectively little changed since just before the holiday break. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Not quite the night before Christmas and some things are still stirring across markets ahead of the holidays.</li><li>The USD is broadly weaker versus the major currencies as markets position ahead of this morning’s data round. Month-end flows may also be weighing on the USD.</li><li>The EUR has risen through recent peaks to trade at its best level since August. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Not quite the night before Christmas and some things are still stirring across markets ahead of the holidays.The USD is broadly weaker versus the major currencies as markets position ahead of this morning’s data round. Month-end flows may also be weighing on the USD.The EUR has risen through recent peaks to trade at its best level since August. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>After the latest data, our earnings bellwether is back to zero, suggesting company earnings may be off the hook for big declines. That would be different this time.</li>
<li>Our Fair Value estimate of the 10-year US Treasury is dropping like a stone, yet the gap with the actual yield remains strikingly large. ‘term premium aficionados’ are likely wrong.</li>
<li>We look at a bunch of US housing and consumer data and must conclude that the odds of an imminent recession are shrinking.</li>
</ul>


After the latest data, our earnings bellwether is back to zero, suggesting company earnings may be off the hook for big declines. That would be different this time.
Our Fair Value estimate of the 10-year US Treasury is dropping like a stone, yet the gap with the actual yield remains strikingly large. ‘term premium aficionados’ are likely wrong.
We look at a bunch of US housing and consumer data and must conclude that the odds of an imminent recession are shrinking.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Bye-Bye OPEC, Hello Liquidity, and Welcome Back Earnings!

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch following the surprisingly dovish FOMC meeting last Wednesday, which smells of a slight policy mistake given what we have been writing about forward-looking price and wage indicators over the past weeks now starting to tick upwards again.</li><li>Despite a couple of Fed members trying to retrace after the meeting, pushing back on rate-cut expectations, market positioning has turned VERY bullish over the past week, and oh boy has equity markets positioned themselves for a binary outcome.</li><li>The USDs parked at money-market funds have taken the spotlight since the FOMC meeting, as inflows in MMFs have continued despite 3-month T-bill yields reaching what looks to be a top after Powell’s remarks Wednesday.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch following the surprisingly dovish FOMC meeting last Wednesday, which smells of a slight policy mistake given what we have been writing about forward-looking price and wage indicators over the past weeks now starting to tick upwards again.Despite a couple of Fed members trying to retrace after the meeting, pushing back on rate-cut expectations, market positioning has turned VERY bullish over the past week, and oh boy has equity markets positioned themselves for a binary outcome.The USDs parked at money-market funds have taken the spotlight since the FOMC meeting, as inflows in MMFs have continued despite 3-month T-bill yields reaching what looks to be a top after Powell’s remarks Wednesday.

Positioning Watch – Buy everything seems to be consensus

<ul><li>Powell invited for a yuuuge risk asset party this week by allowing the market to continue to chase the narrative of material rate cuts in 2024.</li><li>This is (again) reminiscent of the 2006-2007 pause when the Fed allowed financial conditions to ease materially in the run-up to the recession.</li><li>During a hiking cycle, loads and loads of USDs are parked in cash-like setups due to a sudden better relative yield premium in almost risk-free structures.</li></ul>

Powell invited for a yuuuge risk asset party this week by allowing the market to continue to chase the narrative of material rate cuts in 2024.This is (again) reminiscent of the 2006-2007 pause when the Fed allowed financial conditions to ease materially in the run-up to the recession.During a hiking cycle, loads and loads of USDs are parked in cash-like setups due to a sudden better relative yield premium in almost risk-free structures.

Steno Signals #78 – Santa Powell Handing Out Gifts Even to the Naughty!

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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JPY (USDJPY CURNCY)

FX Daily - Oversold USD Rebounds

The USD ended 2023 on a soft note, but a little off the low made on December 28th which was the lowest the DXY traded at since July.

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Slides Ahead of Data

The USD is broadly weaker versus the major currencies as markets position ahead of this morning’s data round. Month-end flows may also be weighing...

Scotiabank

The Weekly Market Monitor – Bye-Bye OPEC, Hello Liquidity, and Welcome Back Earnings!

Welcome to the Weekly Market Monitor, keeping you updated on the week’s most important charts and developments in financial markets.

Jeroen Blokland

Positioning Watch – Buy everything seems to be consensus

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch following the surprisingly dovish FOMC meeting last Wednesday, which smells of a...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #78 – Santa Powell Handing Out Gifts Even to the Naughty!

Powell invited for a yuuuge risk asset party this week by allowing the market to continue to chase the narrative of material rate cuts in 2024.

Steno Research

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