External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD is ending the week on the defensive, losing ground versus all its major currency peers.</li><li>Stocks are trading higher in Europe, after some hefty losses in Asian markets, while US equity futures are trading with modest gains.</li><li>Bonds are broadly higher, however. US Treasurys are underperforming mildly, with 10Y yields down 3bps. Gilts are outperforming (10Y yields down 7-8bps) behind weak UK data. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is ending the week on the defensive, losing ground versus all its major currency peers.Stocks are trading higher in Europe, after some hefty losses in Asian markets, while US equity futures are trading with modest gains.Bonds are broadly higher, however. US Treasurys are underperforming mildly, with 10Y yields down 3bps. Gilts are outperforming (10Y yields down 7-8bps) behind weak UK data. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Softer as US Yields Decline

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The sharp move in USDJPY and other USD pairs towards the end of last week has caught our attention and it arrives on the back of Powell letting go of the steering wheel on USD real rates.</li><li>The weekly credit data from the US economy keeps weakening and we are en route for a credit contraction in the US during Q1/Q2 next year.</li><li>Powell is probably right to let go of the tightness in USD real rates, but the question is whether he could be tempted to take back control in December in a final policy error?</li></ul>

The sharp move in USDJPY and other USD pairs towards the end of last week has caught our attention and it arrives on the back of Powell letting go of the steering wheel on USD real rates.The weekly credit data from the US economy keeps weakening and we are en route for a credit contraction in the US during Q1/Q2 next year.Powell is probably right to let go of the tightness in USD real rates, but the question is whether he could be tempted to take back control in December in a final policy error?

Steno Signals #74 – Did King USD Just Break?

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The Fed was ‘navigating by the stars under cloudy skies’, but now markets have implicitly been allowed a go.</li><li>The provisional result? Rally in bonds and a subsequent rally in equities.</li><li>In this week’s Portfolio Watch, we’ll have a closer look at the reasoning behind the move lower in yields and whether they are a sign of misalignment between hopes and expectations versus still lingering suboptimal fundamentals. We also try to gauge whether the recent weakness in the USD will continue, and its link to the manufacturing cycle. </li></ul>

The Fed was ‘navigating by the stars under cloudy skies’, but now markets have implicitly been allowed a go.The provisional result? Rally in bonds and a subsequent rally in equities.In this week’s Portfolio Watch, we’ll have a closer look at the reasoning behind the move lower in yields and whether they are a sign of misalignment between hopes and expectations versus still lingering suboptimal fundamentals. We also try to gauge whether the recent weakness in the USD will continue, and its link to the manufacturing cycle. 

Portfolio Watch: Celebration for the right or wrong reasons?

<ul><li>The USD’s consolidation is extending a little further after its early week decline, leaving it mixed versus the majors.</li><li>Asian regional FX is outperforming, perhaps reflecting relief that the Biden/Xi meeting ended without any hitch and with promises of improved relations.</li><li>Stocks are somewhat softer overall, however, while bonds are firmer (with Gilts outperforming slightly). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD’s consolidation is extending a little further after its early week decline, leaving it mixed versus the majors.Asian regional FX is outperforming, perhaps reflecting relief that the Biden/Xi meeting ended without any hitch and with promises of improved relations.Stocks are somewhat softer overall, however, while bonds are firmer (with Gilts outperforming slightly). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Mixed, Consolidation Extends

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>After a prolonged saga of stimulus negotiations and the expenditure of countless man-hours in preparation, it is evident that the Chinese stimulus can, at best, provide temporary relief to an ongoing structural issue that is not going away anytime soon.</li><li>While we received some positive numbers this week, with industrial production and consumer spending exceeding expectations, the housing market figures remain dismal and are unlikely to improve unless the CCP alters its course.</li><li>Apart from causing concern in the financial sector, the direct impact on the labor market is an often overlooked yet plainly evident consequence of the current crackdown on real estate</li></ul>

After a prolonged saga of stimulus negotiations and the expenditure of countless man-hours in preparation, it is evident that the Chinese stimulus can, at best, provide temporary relief to an ongoing structural issue that is not going away anytime soon.While we received some positive numbers this week, with industrial production and consumer spending exceeding expectations, the housing market figures remain dismal and are unlikely to improve unless the CCP alters its course.Apart from causing concern in the financial sector, the direct impact on the labor market is an often overlooked yet plainly evident consequence of the current crackdown on real estate

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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FX Daily - USD Softer as US Yields Decline

The USD is ending the week on the defensive, losing ground versus all its major currency peers. Stocks are trading higher in Europe, after some...

Scotiabank

Steno Signals #74 – Did King USD Just Break?

The sharp move in USDJPY and other USD pairs towards the end of last week has caught our attention and it arrives on the back of Powell letting go...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Celebration for the right or wrong reasons?

The Fed was ‘navigating by the stars under cloudy skies’, but now markets have implicitly been allowed a go. The provisional result? Rally in...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Mixed, Consolidation Extends

Asian regional FX is outperforming, perhaps reflecting relief that the Biden/Xi meeting ended without any hitch and with promises of improved...

Scotiabank

EM by EM #30 Pick-up from King Carry?

After a prolonged saga of stimulus negotiations and the expenditure of countless man-hours in preparation, it is evident that the Chinese stimulus...

Steno Research

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