Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everybody and welcome back to our Monday Positioning Watch! We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.</li><li>Last week, we left off with the possibility of an impending bear market rally.</li><li>If that indeed plays out, it’s the positions with the heaviest shorts that are most at risk and we expect the bleeding is not done.</li></ul>

Hello everybody and welcome back to our Monday Positioning Watch! We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.Last week, we left off with the possibility of an impending bear market rally.If that indeed plays out, it’s the positions with the heaviest shorts that are most at risk and we expect the bleeding is not done.

Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>FX Market Update—Markets are generally calmer ahead of this morning’s data points.</li><li>Stocks are positive in Europe, but gains are modest, while US equity futures are very narrowly mixed after disappointing AAPL results last night.</li><li>Major bond markets are mostly weaker on the day but yields are showing minimal gains. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—Markets are generally calmer ahead of this morning’s data points.Stocks are positive in Europe, but gains are modest, while US equity futures are very narrowly mixed after disappointing AAPL results last night.Major bond markets are mostly weaker on the day but yields are showing minimal gains. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>This week’s CFTC data show virtually no overall change in market positioning in the week through Tuesday, with investors likely sidelined ahead of the FOMC decision the following day.</li><li>Aggregated positioning across the major currencies we follow here shows NonCommercial (speculative) traders cutting net USD longs by a bare USD24mn, leaving the aggregate position at a little over USD9bn.</li><li>Positioning trends across most major currencies are veering towards neutral. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

This week’s CFTC data show virtually no overall change in market positioning in the week through Tuesday, with investors likely sidelined ahead of the FOMC decision the following day.Aggregated positioning across the major currencies we follow here shows NonCommercial (speculative) traders cutting net USD longs by a bare USD24mn, leaving the aggregate position at a little over USD9bn.Positioning trends across most major currencies are veering towards neutral. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Little Change in USD Positioning

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! What a week.</li><li>The BoJ no longer has a firm guidance towards higher 10yr bond yields, the Fed accepted higher long bond yields as an excuse to pause and economic data has been abysmal.</li><li>That cocktail has so far allowed the everything rally to thrive in a way we haven’t seen in quarters, but the feedback loop introduced by the big central banks may limit the scope of the bear market rally.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! What a week.The BoJ no longer has a firm guidance towards higher 10yr bond yields, the Fed accepted higher long bond yields as an excuse to pause and economic data has been abysmal.That cocktail has so far allowed the everything rally to thrive in a way we haven’t seen in quarters, but the feedback loop introduced by the big central banks may limit the scope of the bear market rally.

Steno Signals #72 – When a Recession Meets a Melt-Up in Equities and Bonds

<ul><li>At this point in the policy path, our Central Bank Sentiment trackers are showing some meaningful signs of life – not of all it totally anticipated.</li><li>Here we highlight some key observations made over the last month around what Central Bank language is actually telling us from a quantitative point of view.</li><li>We regularly track and update our measure of positivity/negativity of Bank language contained in statements, outlooks and speeches on a scale of -1 to +1.</li></ul>

At this point in the policy path, our Central Bank Sentiment trackers are showing some meaningful signs of life – not of all it totally anticipated.Here we highlight some key observations made over the last month around what Central Bank language is actually telling us from a quantitative point of view.We regularly track and update our measure of positivity/negativity of Bank language contained in statements, outlooks and speeches on a scale of -1 to +1.

Sentiment Nugget: What are Central Banks Actually Telling Us?

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?

We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Remains Soft into NFP

Stocks are positive in Europe, but gains are modest, while US equity futures are very narrowly mixed after disappointing AAPL results last night.

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Little Change in USD Positioning

This week’s CFTC data show virtually no overall change in market positioning in the week through Tuesday, with investors likely sidelined ahead of...

Scotiabank

Steno Signals #72 – When a Recession Meets a Melt-Up in Equities and Bonds

The BoJ no longer has a firm guidance towards higher 10yr bond yields, the Fed accepted higher long bond yields as an excuse to pause and economic...

Steno Research

Sentiment Nugget: What are Central Banks Actually Telling Us?

Looking back over the past 10 years, ECB sentiment into and over October has been more negative than at any other point.

Steno Research

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