Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>We see clear downside risks to the consensus forecasts for November inflation in Europe due to small seasonal expectations for price cuts in various seasonally dependent cost categories.</li><li>In our preview, we will assess the scope for surprises in the core countries and on the aggregate Euro area level.</li><li>Especially German inflation looks seasonally high in the consensus forecast.</li></ul>

We see clear downside risks to the consensus forecasts for November inflation in Europe due to small seasonal expectations for price cuts in various seasonally dependent cost categories.In our preview, we will assess the scope for surprises in the core countries and on the aggregate Euro area level.Especially German inflation looks seasonally high in the consensus forecast.

EUR Inflation Watch: Another Dovish Surprise Due to Black Week/Month?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD ended last week on the defensive but a little off the early week low.</li><li>Still, the DXY closed out the week at its lowest since mid-August and below the 50– and 100-week MA as well as the 50% retracement support of the July/October rally.</li><li>The USD retains a weak undertone to start the new week and continued USD softness looks the main risk for markets in the near-term at least as investors adjust to the USD’s reduced growth and yield advantages. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The USD ended last week on the defensive but a little off the early week low.Still, the DXY closed out the week at its lowest since mid-August and below the 50– and 100-week MA as well as the 50% retracement support of the July/October rally.The USD retains a weak undertone to start the new week and continued USD softness looks the main risk for markets in the near-term at least as investors adjust to the USD’s reduced growth and yield advantages. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Our apologies for the slightly delayed Energy Cable.</li><li>IWhat a week for OPEC! Sources in OPEC+ leaked that Russia and Saudi Arabia were in agreement to delay the meeting due to issues around some other producers (which made us laugh hard given Russia’s own export numbers compared to their quotas).</li><li>We have had a look at OPEC production and export numbers and it seems like production is much more price-bullish than actual net exports (meaning a draw on local OPEC inventories).</li></ul>

Our apologies for the slightly delayed Energy Cable.IWhat a week for OPEC! Sources in OPEC+ leaked that Russia and Saudi Arabia were in agreement to delay the meeting due to issues around some other producers (which made us laugh hard given Russia’s own export numbers compared to their quotas).We have had a look at OPEC production and export numbers and it seems like production is much more price-bullish than actual net exports (meaning a draw on local OPEC inventories).

Energy Cable: The Review that Became a Preview!

<ul><li>Before we get going we have to stretch that this month’s number comes with a yuuuge caveat, namely that of the German Constitutional Court’s decision from 1 and a half weeks ago.</li><li>The court decided to block the funds intended by the German government to subsidize electricity prices for both households and companies and since the decision was taken on the 15th of this month we strongly suspect that some submissions were sent before the ruling.</li><li>That would of course mean that the companies would have had a lot more bullish outlooks before the 15th.</li></ul>

Before we get going we have to stretch that this month’s number comes with a yuuuge caveat, namely that of the German Constitutional Court’s decision from 1 and a half weeks ago.The court decided to block the funds intended by the German government to subsidize electricity prices for both households and companies and since the decision was taken on the 15th of this month we strongly suspect that some submissions were sent before the ruling.That would of course mean that the companies would have had a lot more bullish outlooks before the 15th.

Ifo Nugget: Should We Believe the Numbers?

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we as always try to dig down into the latest positioning data and give you an overview of what’s moving narrative currently.</li><li>Sentiment and positioning are still skewed towards hopes of a soft landing, with bets being placed on lower yields, a weaker dollar, booming equities and almost non-existent credit spreads – ironically a prime condition for an upcoming recession (which is still our base case for H1 2024).</li><li>General media and story counts are also all about the soft landing vs recession, with the mentionings of “recession” back at pre-COVID levels, while soft landing counts are on the rise, although pulling a bit back from recent highs.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we as always try to dig down into the latest positioning data and give you an overview of what’s moving narrative currently.Sentiment and positioning are still skewed towards hopes of a soft landing, with bets being placed on lower yields, a weaker dollar, booming equities and almost non-existent credit spreads – ironically a prime condition for an upcoming recession (which is still our base case for H1 2024).General media and story counts are also all about the soft landing vs recession, with the mentionings of “recession” back at pre-COVID levels, while soft landing counts are on the rise, although pulling a bit back from recent highs.

Positioning Watch – All About the Soft Landing Narrative

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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EUR Inflation Watch: Another Dovish Surprise Due to Black Week/Month?

We see clear downside risks to the consensus forecasts for November inflation in Europe due to small seasonal expectations for price cuts in...

Steno Research

FX Daily - Soft USD Trend Set to Extend

The USD retains a weak undertone to start the new week and continued USD softness looks the main risk for markets in the near-term at least as...

Scotiabank

Energy Cable: The Review that Became a Preview!

Our apologies for the slightly delayed Energy Cable. I got caught up in the hospital with my son late yesterday, but everything is fine now! What...

Steno Research

Ifo Nugget: Should We Believe the Numbers?

Before we get going we have to stretch that this month’s number comes with a yuuuge caveat, namely that of the German Constitutional Court’s...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – All About the Soft Landing Narrative

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we as always try to dig down into the latest positioning data and give you...

Steno Research

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