External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Comments from Fed hawk Waller that he was encouraged by what policymakers had learned recently pressured US yields and the USD yesterday.</li><li>Additional comments on how quickly—hypothetically—rates could fall saw front-end yields rally.</li><li>Waller’s colleague Bowman was a bit more measured in her remarks but markets sense that the Fed cycle is done and focus is shifting to the timing of rate cuts. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Comments from Fed hawk Waller that he was encouraged by what policymakers had learned recently pressured US yields and the USD yesterday.Additional comments on how quickly—hypothetically—rates could fall saw front-end yields rally.Waller’s colleague Bowman was a bit more measured in her remarks but markets sense that the Fed cycle is done and focus is shifting to the timing of rate cuts. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Edges Off Low but Headwinds Remain

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Rates continue lower. More and earlier rate cuts are priced in as inflation loses momentum and downside risks to the economy increase.</li><li>Part of the drop in longer rates may reflect revisited structural views.</li><li>One year ago today, markets expected the ECB to hike its key policy rate to just below 3% and then cut rates again to around 2.30% (green line). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Rates continue lower. More and earlier rate cuts are priced in as inflation loses momentum and downside risks to the economy increase.Part of the drop in longer rates may reflect revisited structural views.One year ago today, markets expected the ECB to hike its key policy rate to just below 3% and then cut rates again to around 2.30% (green line). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The holiday-delayed CFTC data were worth the wait. The overall change in positioning reflected in this week’s data was significant.</li><li>Aggregate USD longs held by NonCommercial (speculative) traders were slashed in half ahead of the Thanksgiving break; overall speculative USD longs dropped USD5.4bn in the week to USD5.1bn.</li><li>In addition, data showed Real Money (institutional accounts) boosting net USD shorts by around USD7bn while Leveraged (hedge) Funds raised their aggregate USD longs by around USD500mn.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The holiday-delayed CFTC data were worth the wait. The overall change in positioning reflected in this week’s data was significant.Aggregate USD longs held by NonCommercial (speculative) traders were slashed in half ahead of the Thanksgiving break; overall speculative USD longs dropped USD5.4bn in the week to USD5.1bn.In addition, data showed Real Money (institutional accounts) boosting net USD shorts by around USD7bn while Leveraged (hedge) Funds raised their aggregate USD longs by around USD500mn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report – Traders Slash USD Longs

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the reactions of CBs.</li><li>This is followed by talking about EURflation and the upcoming OPEC meeting and we then move on to talking about the Ifo numbers released last week while lastly finishing off with Dutch politics.</li><li>The Fed is the most plausible “pauser”.</li></ul>

We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the reactions of CBs.This is followed by talking about EURflation and the upcoming OPEC meeting and we then move on to talking about the Ifo numbers released last week while lastly finishing off with Dutch politics.The Fed is the most plausible “pauser”.

5 Things We Watch: CBs, Eurflation, OPEC, Ifo, Dutch Politics

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>We have used the 2007 = 2023 analogy a few times already this year and we continue to find coincidental evidence that looks a lot like the emerging pressures built up in the quarters preceding the financial crisis.</li><li>The outcome of 2024 is still up in the air, but credit indicators do not look pretty ahead of next year when we combine the impulse in China, the US and the Euro area in an aggregate model and judging from the central bank behavior, we see a lot of similarities to 2007 across the BoJ, the Fed and the ECB.</li><li>Let’s briefly explain why in this central bank watch piece! </li></ul>

We have used the 2007 = 2023 analogy a few times already this year and we continue to find coincidental evidence that looks a lot like the emerging pressures built up in the quarters preceding the financial crisis.The outcome of 2024 is still up in the air, but credit indicators do not look pretty ahead of next year when we combine the impulse in China, the US and the Euro area in an aggregate model and judging from the central bank behavior, we see a lot of similarities to 2007 across the BoJ, the Fed and the ECB.Let’s briefly explain why in this central bank watch piece! 

G3 Central Bank Watch: More Fuel to the 2007 = 2023 Analogy

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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FX Daily - USD Edges Off Low but Headwinds Remain

Comments from Fed hawk Waller that he was encouraged by what policymakers had learned recently pressured US yields and the USD yesterday.

Scotiabank

EUR Rates: There and Back Again

Rates continue lower. More and earlier rate cuts are priced in as inflation loses momentum and downside risks to the economy increase.

Nordea

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report – Traders Slash USD Longs

The holiday-delayed CFTC data were worth the wait. The overall change in positioning reflected in this week’s data was significant.

Scotiabank

5 Things We Watch: CBs, Eurflation, OPEC, Ifo, Dutch Politics

We talk about EURflation and the upcoming OPEC meeting and we then move on to talking about the Ifo numbers released last week while lastly...

Steno Research

G3 Central Bank Watch: More Fuel to the 2007 = 2023 Analogy

The outcome of 2024 is still up in the air, but credit indicators do not look pretty ahead of next year when we combine the impulse in China, the...

Steno Research

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