Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Remember the abysmal numbers seen in the US economy around the year-turn of 2022/2023 and the sharp rebound in numbers into February/March (December and January data respectively)?</li><li>Well, for those of you who have been clients of Steno Research since January, it is no surprise that these trends were driven by extreme adjustment activities in spreadsheets.</li><li>The seasonal factors in ISM Manufacturing reached record negative territory in January, but adjustments penciled in for Dec this year are clearly less extreme.</li></ul>

Remember the abysmal numbers seen in the US economy around the year-turn of 2022/2023 and the sharp rebound in numbers into February/March (December and January data respectively)?Well, for those of you who have been clients of Steno Research since January, it is no surprise that these trends were driven by extreme adjustment activities in spreadsheets.The seasonal factors in ISM Manufacturing reached record negative territory in January, but adjustments penciled in for Dec this year are clearly less extreme.

Seasonality Watch: Why a Dec hike remains in play

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>We have revised our forecasts for the major currencies.</li><li>The weakness in the US dollar (USD) that we expected to develop over the second half of the year has not materialized.</li><li>Instead, a grind higher in the USD from the middle of the year was fueled by positive economic data and rising long-term yields amid simmering expectations that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) tightening cycle could extend further. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We have revised our forecasts for the major currencies.The weakness in the US dollar (USD) that we expected to develop over the second half of the year has not materialized.Instead, a grind higher in the USD from the middle of the year was fueled by positive economic data and rising long-term yields amid simmering expectations that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) tightening cycle could extend further. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Here at Steno Research, our primary concern has been growth rather than inflation since around the end of H1.</li><li>While this divergence is gradually gaining mainstream recognition, emerging markets have been well ahead of the curve.</li><li>Consequently, disinflationary surprises continue to be prevalent.</li></ul>

Here at Steno Research, our primary concern has been growth rather than inflation since around the end of H1.While this divergence is gradually gaining mainstream recognition, emerging markets have been well ahead of the curve.Consequently, disinflationary surprises continue to be prevalent.

EM by EM #29: Biden’s Party, EM’s Hangover & Scholz’s Nightmare

<ul><li>We typically release our weekly EIA Watch on Thursdays but given this press release from the EIA, we will not be able to update the demand side data this week.</li><li>Instead, we will have a look at some of the most important indicators in the Energy space as oil markets have left blood on the streets lately, leading Saudi Arabia to once again “call out” short sellers.</li><li>Is there a fundamental downturn in demand or is this recent trend in oil once again driven by the positioning of paper markets?</li></ul>

We typically release our weekly EIA Watch on Thursdays but given this press release from the EIA, we will not be able to update the demand side data this week.Instead, we will have a look at some of the most important indicators in the Energy space as oil markets have left blood on the streets lately, leading Saudi Arabia to once again “call out” short sellers.Is there a fundamental downturn in demand or is this recent trend in oil once again driven by the positioning of paper markets?

Energy Watch: The perfect bull-signal delivered by Olaf Scholz?

<ul><li>Main takeaways: The recent bond-relief onset by the QRA needs risk-off sentiment to be sustained. If not we may well see further pain coming into 2024</li><li>CBO’s &amp; OMB’s forecasts are all over the place and based on a soft landing and no additional spending for 2024 (good luck)</li><li>Treasury Borrowing Advisory Council’s funding recommendations that outline the issuance plans are based on the forecasts above and will likely surprise markets substantially unless we see a fiscal consolidation</li></ul>

Main takeaways: The recent bond-relief onset by the QRA needs risk-off sentiment to be sustained. If not we may well see further pain coming into 2024CBO’s &amp; OMB’s forecasts are all over the place and based on a soft landing and no additional spending for 2024 (good luck)Treasury Borrowing Advisory Council’s funding recommendations that outline the issuance plans are based on the forecasts above and will likely surprise markets substantially unless we see a fiscal consolidation

Out of the Box #23: Why the Treasury undershoots actual issuance needs

United States

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Seasonality Watch: Why a Dec hike remains in play

Remember the abysmal numbers seen in the US economy around the year-turn of 2022/2023 and the sharp rebound in numbers into February/March...

Steno Research

Foreign Exchange Outlook - November 2023

We have revised our forecasts for the major currencies. The weakness in the US dollar (USD) that we expected to develop over the second half of the...

Scotiabank

EM by EM #29: Biden’s Party, EM’s Hangover & Scholz’s Nightmare

Here at Steno Research, our primary concern has been growth rather than inflation since around the end of H1. While this divergence is gradually...

Steno Research

Energy Watch: The perfect bull-signal delivered by Olaf Scholz?

We typically release our weekly EIA Watch on Thursdays but given this press release from the EIA, we will not be able to update the demand side...

Steno Research

Out of the Box #23: Why the Treasury undershoots actual issuance needs

Main takeaways:The recent bond-relief onset by the QRA needs risk-off sentiment to be sustained. If not we may well see further pain coming into...

Steno Research

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