Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

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Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The surprisingly dovish tone of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and ECB President Lagarde suggests the end of the tightening cycle is in, boding well for Equities and Treasuries.</li>
<li>After quarters of declining or negative earnings and revenue growth, Big Tech companies are finally showing improvement. </li>
<li>After being in Frenzy for three weeks, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has slipped back to Neutral. </li>
</ul>


The surprisingly dovish tone of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and ECB President Lagarde suggests the end of the tightening cycle is in, boding well for Equities and Treasuries.
After quarters of declining or negative earnings and revenue growth, Big Tech companies are finally showing improvement. 
After being in Frenzy for three weeks, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has slipped back to Neutral. 


The Weekly Market Monitor (30) – Behold the Dovish Shift!

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>FX Market Update —The FOMC decision largely delivered on expectations —a 1/4 point hike and Chairman Powell stressing data dependency on future policy moves.</li><li>September is a “live” meeting by inference but market pricing reflects still low expectations (20% probability) of a hike at the next meeting with a bit less than 50% probability of a move before year end.</li><li>That’s a bit lower than pre -FOMC levels. The shift is hardly decisive but markets are essentially marginally more inclined to feel that the Fed is done with tightening here.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update —The FOMC decision largely delivered on expectations —a 1/4 point hike and Chairman Powell stressing data dependency on future policy moves.September is a “live” meeting by inference but market pricing reflects still low expectations (20% probability) of a hike at the next meeting with a bit less than 50% probability of a move before year end.That’s a bit lower than pre -FOMC levels. The shift is hardly decisive but markets are essentially marginally more inclined to feel that the Fed is done with tightening here.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Softer Ahead of ECB and US GDP, PCE

<ul>
<li>This week’s Fed and ECB policy decisions resulted in as expected rate hikes in both cases.</li>
<li>The USD wobbled Wednesday even as the Fed tightened and left the door open to another move in September.</li>
<li>That raised the rather confusing (unlikely?) prospect of the Fed tightening at consecutive meetings again when inflationary pressures appear to be abating.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


This week’s Fed and ECB policy decisions resulted in as expected rate hikes in both cases.
The USD wobbled Wednesday even as the Fed tightened and left the door open to another move in September.
That raised the rather confusing (unlikely?) prospect of the Fed tightening at consecutive meetings again when inflationary pressures appear to be abating.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - USD Squeeze May Extend in the Short Run

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The headline ESI declined to 87.5 in July from 89.9 the previous month.</li>
<li>Today’s reading marks the 12th consecutive month below the neutral level 100. The index was mainly weighed down by sharp declines in the manufacturing and construction sectors.</li>
<li>Manufacturing confidencefell by 4.8 index points to 97.1, thus taking the index to contractionary territory for the first time since August 2020.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


The headline ESI declined to 87.5 in July from 89.9 the previous month.
Today’s reading marks the 12th consecutive month below the neutral level 100. The index was mainly weighed down by sharp declines in the manufacturing and construction sectors.
Manufacturing confidencefell by 4.8 index points to 97.1, thus taking the index to contractionary territory for the first time since August 2020.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Swedish Tendency Survey: Lower Price Plans and Signs of a Cooling Labour Market

<ul>
<li>The ECB hiked rates by a further 25bp, bringing the deposit rate to 3.75%.</li>
<li>The wording change in the statement explicitly left open the possibility of not raising rates further, and Lagarde confirmed this change was significant.</li>
<li>We think the ECB is done hiking rates, though future data releases will eventually determine, whether the data-dependent ECB hikes rates further.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


The ECB hiked rates by a further 25bp, bringing the deposit rate to 3.75%.
The wording change in the statement explicitly left open the possibility of not raising rates further, and Lagarde confirmed this change was significant.
We think the ECB is done hiking rates, though future data releases will eventually determine, whether the data-dependent ECB hikes rates further.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ECB Watch: The Peak Is Here or at Least Near

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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The Weekly Market Monitor (30) – Behold the Dovish Shift!

A surprisingly hawkish tone of central bankers suggests the end of the tightening cycle is near, with positive implications for Equities and...

Jeroen Blokland

FX Daily - USD Softer Ahead of ECB and US GDP, PCE

FX Market Update —The FOMC decision largely delivered on expectations —a 1/4 point hike and Chairman Powell stressing data dependency on future...

Scotiabank

FX Snapshot - USD Squeeze May Extend in the Short Run

This week’s Fed and ECB policy decisions resulted in as expected rate hikes in both cases. The USD wobbled Wednesday even as the Fed tightened and...

Scotiabank

Swedish Tendency Survey: Lower Price Plans and Signs of a Cooling Labour Market

The headline ESI declined to 87.5 in July from 89.9 the previous month. Today’s reading marks the 12th consecutive month below the neutral level...

Nordea

ECB Watch: The Peak Is Here or at Least Near

The ECB hiked rates by a further 25bp, bringing the deposit rate to 3.75%.The wording change in the statement explicitly left open the possibility...

Nordea

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)