Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The extreme volatility in the USD curve continues and Jay Powell gave a green light to further curve steepening by hinting that term premias could drive up the curve allowing the Fed to tighten a little less in the front.</li><li>In this piece, we are going to take a deep dive into central balance sheet structures in the US and in Europe, which reveals that the ECB is much more determined in its attempts to bring liquidity down relative to the Fed.</li><li>This is another reason to expect EUR-flation to drop faster than USD-flation.</li></ul>

The extreme volatility in the USD curve continues and Jay Powell gave a green light to further curve steepening by hinting that term premias could drive up the curve allowing the Fed to tighten a little less in the front.In this piece, we are going to take a deep dive into central balance sheet structures in the US and in Europe, which reveals that the ECB is much more determined in its attempts to bring liquidity down relative to the Fed.This is another reason to expect EUR-flation to drop faster than USD-flation.

Central Bank Watch: The Fed has gone from QE to QT to QB

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Credit

<ul><li>Last night, Huarong announced the 5th round of offshore bond repurchases. In this round, the repurchased amount was USD201.12mn in principal.</li><li>All of these were conducted between 12-19 Oct’23. The focuses remain to be on longerdated and lower cash price bonds.</li><li>HRINTHs are our top picks of the Chinese AMC sector given the better risk-return profiles and our expectation of further repurchases. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Last night, Huarong announced the 5th round of offshore bond repurchases. In this round, the repurchased amount was USD201.12mn in principal.All of these were conducted between 12-19 Oct’23. The focuses remain to be on longerdated and lower cash price bonds.HRINTHs are our top picks of the Chinese AMC sector given the better risk-return profiles and our expectation of further repurchases. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD is stronger overall, supported by rising US yields (10s touched 4.98% earlier) and weaker global stocks following a tumble (2%+) in Chinese equities earlier.</li><li>The EUR, CHF and the JPY are all holding very minor gains on the session, with high beta FX underperforming, however.</li><li>The JPY’s stability looks a little curious considering its sensitivity to US yields recently but broader USD (DXY) gains are looking a bit stretched relative to fair value based on short-term spreads alone, suggesting the primary driver of USD appreciation is coming from geo-political/market risk influences. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is stronger overall, supported by rising US yields (10s touched 4.98% earlier) and weaker global stocks following a tumble (2%+) in Chinese equities earlier.The EUR, CHF and the JPY are all holding very minor gains on the session, with high beta FX underperforming, however.The JPY’s stability looks a little curious considering its sensitivity to US yields recently but broader USD (DXY) gains are looking a bit stretched relative to fair value based on short-term spreads alone, suggesting the primary driver of USD appreciation is coming from geo-political/market risk influences. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Firmer on Yields, Risk Aversion

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>After the ECB signalled at the September meeting that rates have likely peaked, while recent inflation data have actually surprised to the downside, the decision to leave rates unchanged at the 26 October meeting looks straightforward.</li><li>While several Governing Council members have kept the door open for an additional hike, the next probable timing for debating the need to hike rates further will be the December meeting, with updated forecasts, not next week’s meeting.</li><li>The recent increase in longer yields should further limit the pressure for the ECB to do more.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

After the ECB signalled at the September meeting that rates have likely peaked, while recent inflation data have actually surprised to the downside, the decision to leave rates unchanged at the 26 October meeting looks straightforward.While several Governing Council members have kept the door open for an additional hike, the next probable timing for debating the need to hike rates further will be the December meeting, with updated forecasts, not next week’s meeting.The recent increase in longer yields should further limit the pressure for the ECB to do more.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ECB Watch: Limited need for new decisions

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD is trading mixed to a little firmer in broad terms but FX movement is limited among the core currencies as investors grapple with uncertainty across a number of fronts.</li><li>The USD’s failures to advance on the back of stronger than expected data and higher yields yesterday supports the impression that choppy—but essentially flat—trading in the DXY since late September reflects “late cycle” activity as investors consider the peak of the Fed tightening cycle and the peak in the US economy.</li><li>The lid on the DXY rally in the low 107 area is looking a little more solid.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD is trading mixed to a little firmer in broad terms but FX movement is limited among the core currencies as investors grapple with uncertainty across a number of fronts.The USD’s failures to advance on the back of stronger than expected data and higher yields yesterday supports the impression that choppy—but essentially flat—trading in the DXY since late September reflects “late cycle” activity as investors consider the peak of the Fed tightening cycle and the peak in the US economy.The lid on the DXY rally in the low 107 area is looking a little more solid.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

EURO/US DOLLAR (EURUSD CURNCY)

Central Bank Watch: The Fed has gone from QE to QT to QB

The extreme volatility in the USD curve continues and Jay Powell gave a green light to further curve steepening by hinting that term premias could...

Steno Research

HRINTH: Room for further repurchases?

Last night, Huarong announced the 5th round of offshore bond repurchases. In this round, the repurchased amount was USD201.12mn in principal.

CMB International

FX Daily - USD Firmer on Yields, Risk Aversion

The USD is stronger overall, supported by rising US yields (10s touched 4.98% earlier) and weaker global stocks following a tumble (2%+) in Chinese...

Scotiabank

ECB Watch: Limited need for new decisions

The focus will likely be on what to do about the Eurosystem bond portfolio and reserve requirements, while rates will be debated again in December.

Nordea

FX Daily - USD Mixed Amid Uncertainty

FX Market Update—The USD is trading mixed to a little firmer in broad terms but FX movement is limited among the core currencies as investors...

Scotiabank

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)