Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Loads of moves to address but we’ve condensed our scope for you to catch up on the handful we dedicate marked attention</li><li>BoJ inflation forecast and presumed policy-change. Mounting pressure on the CNY (and CNY).</li><li>Monetary trends in USD and EUR. The continued selloff in US Treasuries. Biden’s trip to Israel.</li></ul>

Loads of moves to address but we’ve condensed our scope for you to catch up on the handful we dedicate marked attentionBoJ inflation forecast and presumed policy-change. Mounting pressure on the CNY (and CNY).Monetary trends in USD and EUR. The continued selloff in US Treasuries. Biden’s trip to Israel.

5 Things We Watch: BoJ, JPY & CNY, Monetary trends, UST selloff & Biden’s visit in Israel

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The headline changes in USD positioning is the latest week’s Commitments of Traders Report are relatively limited.</li><li>Aggregate Non-Commercial (speculative) net USD longs are little changed after the prior week’s significant advance, falling USD291mn in the week to USD8.48bn.</li><li>This is still close to the most bullish positioning on the USD in a little under a year. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The headline changes in USD positioning is the latest week’s Commitments of Traders Report are relatively limited.Aggregate Non-Commercial (speculative) net USD longs are little changed after the prior week’s significant advance, falling USD291mn in the week to USD8.48bn.This is still close to the most bullish positioning on the USD in a little under a year. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Bullish Sentiment Consolidates

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD is trading firmer overall but the “market-weighted” DXY is trading off its earlier highs ahead of the North American session and effectively continues to consolidate within the October trading range.</li><li>Risk appetite has softened somewhat as investors focus on developments in Israel/Gaza. President Biden plans to visit Israel tomorrow.</li><li>European stocks and US equity futures are steady to lower but bonds have weakened. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD is trading firmer overall but the “market-weighted” DXY is trading off its earlier highs ahead of the North American session and effectively continues to consolidate within the October trading range.Risk appetite has softened somewhat as investors focus on developments in Israel/Gaza. President Biden plans to visit Israel tomorrow.European stocks and US equity futures are steady to lower but bonds have weakened. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Edges Higher, CAD Slips Ahead of CPI

<ul><li>Being away from the desk for a few days allows me to take a step back and ponder about some of the biggies in global macro.</li><li>I have spent the first few evenings in Spain investigating the intriguing differences between Europe and the US in monetary terms.</li><li>Conclusions up front:USD monetary trends keep outpacing EUR peers, leaving a stickier inflation picture ahead in the US.</li></ul>

Being away from the desk for a few days allows me to take a step back and ponder about some of the biggies in global macro.I have spent the first few evenings in Spain investigating the intriguing differences between Europe and the US in monetary terms.Conclusions up front:USD monetary trends keep outpacing EUR peers, leaving a stickier inflation picture ahead in the US.

Money Watch: Monetary trends scream >2% inflation still (in the US)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The monetary policy account for the ECB’sSeptember meeting showed that the decision to hike rates by 25bp had been a close call, and part of the reason for taking this step was to buy insurance against unanticipated inflation developments</li><li>In fact, the tone of the account was more relaxed compared to previous accounts,illustrating growing confidence that the past measures would be sufficient to bring inflation back to the target.</li><li>Largely gone were the earlier worries about stagflation.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The monetary policy account for the ECB’sSeptember meeting showed that the decision to hike rates by 25bp had been a close call, and part of the reason for taking this step was to buy insurance against unanticipated inflation developmentsIn fact, the tone of the account was more relaxed compared to previous accounts,illustrating growing confidence that the past measures would be sufficient to bring inflation back to the target.Largely gone were the earlier worries about stagflation.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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5 Things We Watch: BoJ, JPY & CNY, Monetary trends, UST selloff & Biden’s visit in Israel

Welcome to this week’s edition of our weekly recurring ‘5 Things We Watch’. Which fool said macro was boring? Loads of moves to address but we’ve...

Steno Research

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Bullish Sentiment Consolidates

Aggregate Non-Commercial (speculative) net USD longs are little changed after the prior week’s significant advance, falling USD291mn in the week to...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Edges Higher, CAD Slips Ahead of CPI

Risk appetite has softened somewhat as investors focus on developments in Israel/Gaza. President Biden plans to visit Israel tomorrow.

Scotiabank

Money Watch: Monetary trends scream >2% inflation still (in the US)

Being away from the desk for a few days allows me to take a step back and ponder about some of the biggies in global macro. I have spent the first...

Steno Research

ECB Watch: At the peak

The monetary policy account for the ECB’sSeptember meeting showed that the decision to hike rates by 25bp had been a close call

Nordea

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