External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>CFTC data for the week through July 18th reflect a significant deterioration in USD sentiment.</li>
<li>Speculative Accounts’ overall positioning against the USD versus the major currencies reflected an aggregate short position of USD 19.9bn in the latest week.</li>
<li>The week-over-week increase in aggregate USD shorts of USD7.4bn was the largest single week positioning shift against the USD since 2020. </li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


CFTC data for the week through July 18th reflect a significant deterioration in USD sentiment.
Speculative Accounts’ overall positioning against the USD versus the major currencies reflected an aggregate short position of USD 19.9bn in the latest week.
The week-over-week increase in aggregate USD shorts of USD7.4bn was the largest single week positioning shift against the USD since 2020. 

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Global FX Strategy - USD Sentiment Deteriorates Sharply

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>In the blistering heat of summer, Spanish voters went to the polls on Sunday.</li><li>It was expected to be a tough race for incumbent centre-left Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, but the result wasn’t as clear-cut as many expected.</li><li>Many analysts have pointed to a potential lengthy government formation process and painted this as really bad news for the Spanish economy – but is that really the case?</li></ul>

In the blistering heat of summer, Spanish voters went to the polls on Sunday.It was expected to be a tough race for incumbent centre-left Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, but the result wasn’t as clear-cut as many expected.Many analysts have pointed to a potential lengthy government formation process and painted this as really bad news for the Spanish economy – but is that really the case?

Great Game: Is a Hung Parliament bad news for markets?

<ul><li>USD edged off its lows Tuesday, perhaps reflecting the concerns I noted here yesterday that the sell-off had extended too far, too quickly.</li><li>There was little to support the USD from yesterday’s US data reports. Slower consumer demand and weaker industrial activity bolstered US slowdown expectations.</li><li>There was, however, a Market News report suggesting that Fed policymakers are concerned that rate hikes are feeding into the economy more quickly than anticipated; in other words, the fuller impact of rate hikes is already being felt and it has not been enough to slow the economy sufficient to bear down on prices. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

USD edged off its lows Tuesday, perhaps reflecting the concerns I noted here yesterday that the sell-off had extended too far, too quickly.There was little to support the USD from yesterday’s US data reports. Slower consumer demand and weaker industrial activity bolstered US slowdown expectations.There was, however, a Market News report suggesting that Fed policymakers are concerned that rate hikes are feeding into the economy more quickly than anticipated; in other words, the fuller impact of rate hikes is already being felt and it has not been enough to slow the economy sufficient to bear down on prices. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>With the disinflation narrative starting to catch momentum, a long-awaited process that we have anticipated would kick in late Q1 or early Q2, we are back on track for a global economic cooldown.</li><li>Central bankers are slowly but surely conceding to inflation being the last war and as they shift their primary focus shifts toward keeping the bottom up on the economy and avoiding the nasty R-word to spread.</li><li>Recently Knot in ECB has turned his back on the hawk line which is the first step toward an actual pivot as hardliners need to cede ground to the doves in the council:Chart 1: ECB Governing Council: Knot moving toward Center, more to follow?</li></ul>

With the disinflation narrative starting to catch momentum, a long-awaited process that we have anticipated would kick in late Q1 or early Q2, we are back on track for a global economic cooldown.Central bankers are slowly but surely conceding to inflation being the last war and as they shift their primary focus shifts toward keeping the bottom up on the economy and avoiding the nasty R-word to spread.Recently Knot in ECB has turned his back on the hawk line which is the first step toward an actual pivot as hardliners need to cede ground to the doves in the council:Chart 1: ECB Governing Council: Knot moving toward Center, more to follow?

Out of the Box #12: What if the deacceleration of EZ inflation starts to outpace that of the US?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we take you through 5 things that we have found particularly interesting in the past week.</li><li>Yesterday we launched the first of a couple of articles focusing on the current business cycle, giving our best guess on where in the cycle we are, what markets are pricing in and most importantly – what will happen next.</li><li>The full articles regarding the business cycle and how different asset classes are positioned for it will be released throughout the week for premium subscribers.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we take you through 5 things that we have found particularly interesting in the past week.Yesterday we launched the first of a couple of articles focusing on the current business cycle, giving our best guess on where in the cycle we are, what markets are pricing in and most importantly – what will happen next.The full articles regarding the business cycle and how different asset classes are positioned for it will be released throughout the week for premium subscribers.

5 Things We Watch – PMIs, FX, Japan, Brazil, Inflation

United States

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Global FX Strategy - USD Sentiment Deteriorates Sharply

Speculative Accounts’ overall positioning against the USD versus the major currencies reflected an aggregate short position of USD 19.9bn in the...

Scotiabank

Great Game: Is a Hung Parliament bad news for markets?

In the blistering heat of summer, Spanish voters went to the polls on Sunday. It was expected to be a tough race for incumbent centre-left Prime...

Steno Research

FX Daily - GBP Tumbles on Lower UK CPI

USD edged off its lows Tuesday, perhaps reflecting the concerns I noted here yesterday that the sell-off had extended too far, too quickly.

Scotiabank

Out of the Box #12: What if the deacceleration of EZ inflation starts to outpace that of the US?

With the disinflation narrative starting to catch momentum, a long-awaited process that we have anticipated would kick in late Q1 or early Q2, we...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch – PMIs, FX, Japan, Brazil, Inflation

Welcome to this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we take you through 5 things that we have found particularly interesting in the past...

Steno Research

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