External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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FX & Rates

<ul><li>Just as consensus had started to gather around bear steepening driven by rising term premia, war in the Middle East adds to inflation and credit risks.</li><li>So far, the rise in oil prices has been modest.</li><li>However, a spike in energy prices is generally more likely to prompt rate hikes when following a period of too high inflation and less anchored inflation expectations</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Just as consensus had started to gather around bear steepening driven by rising term premia, war in the Middle East adds to inflation and credit risks.So far, the rise in oil prices has been modest.However, a spike in energy prices is generally more likely to prompt rate hikes when following a period of too high inflation and less anchored inflation expectationsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We have now formalized our recession call for Q1-2024 (in the US) as we have patiently waited all year and called for better than feared performance in the US economy.</li><li>Interestingly, we see a diverging path for Manufacturing and Services ahead short-term, which will likely wrongfoot many economists and traders.</li><li>Manufacturing is currently restocking, while services are on the decline.</li></ul>

We have now formalized our recession call for Q1-2024 (in the US) as we have patiently waited all year and called for better than feared performance in the US economy.Interestingly, we see a diverging path for Manufacturing and Services ahead short-term, which will likely wrongfoot many economists and traders.Manufacturing is currently restocking, while services are on the decline.

Steno Signals #69 – The recession playbook

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion.</li><li>Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week! Which of course leaves us with the question we attempt to answer every Saturday: How are markets positioned?</li><li>But before diving into that, we think it prudent to act with some context to the nature of the situation that markets have to digest</li></ul>

Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion.Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week! Which of course leaves us with the question we attempt to answer every Saturday: How are markets positioned?But before diving into that, we think it prudent to act with some context to the nature of the situation that markets have to digest

Positioning Watch:  Seeking Shelter in the Fog of War

<ul><li>The world has seen significant changes since the last release of Portfolio Watch, marked by the tragic events in the Middle East.</li><li>To add some context, it is perhaps helpful to refresh the six key takeaways before the Hamas incursion into Israel on Saturday.</li><li>1) We are on the sideline on Bonds but it is starting to look juicy 2) Yield curve steepener is good risk reward 3) We’re bearish on equities 4) We don’t wanna bet against the USD 5) Credit spreads are bound to widen  6) We think banks are starting to look detached from fundamentals</li></ul>

The world has seen significant changes since the last release of Portfolio Watch, marked by the tragic events in the Middle East.To add some context, it is perhaps helpful to refresh the six key takeaways before the Hamas incursion into Israel on Saturday.1) We are on the sideline on Bonds but it is starting to look juicy 2) Yield curve steepener is good risk reward 3) We’re bearish on equities 4) We don’t wanna bet against the USD 5) Credit spreads are bound to widen  6) We think banks are starting to look detached from fundamentals

Portfolio Watch: The Art of Resisting Panic

<ul><li>In light of the firmer than expected CPI report from the US, we have re-visited our curve views across major currencies.</li><li>We find the following to be decent risk/rewards:USD-EUR spreads can widen further due to diverging inflation outlooks.</li><li>We see value in March-2024 spreads.</li></ul>

In light of the firmer than expected CPI report from the US, we have re-visited our curve views across major currencies.We find the following to be decent risk/rewards:USD-EUR spreads can widen further due to diverging inflation outlooks.We see value in March-2024 spreads.

Rates Watch: Are we all still chasing that cutting cycle too early?

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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EUR rates: From the frying pan...

Just as consensus had started to gather around bear steepening driven by rising term premia, war in the Middle East adds to inflation and credit risks

Nordea

Steno Signals #69 – The recession playbook

Happy Sunday everyone and welcome to our flagship editorial!I will keep it short and sweet this week on my way to Mallorca! We have now formalized...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Seeking Shelter in the Fog of War

Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion. Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week!

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: The Art of Resisting Panic

The world has seen significant changes since the last release of Portfolio Watch, marked by the tragic events in the Middle East.

Steno Research

Rates Watch: Are we all still chasing that cutting cycle too early?

In light of the firmer than expected CPI report from the US, we have re-visited our curve views across major currencies. We find the following to...

Steno Research

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