Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>This week we would like to draw your attention to our monthly macro regime indicator which has been updated.</li><li>Then we’ll argue for a Riyadh Accord, and after that look at this week’s SLOOS release.</li><li>Then it is time to talk geopolitics and Ukraine.</li></ul>

This week we would like to draw your attention to our monthly macro regime indicator which has been updated.Then we’ll argue for a Riyadh Accord, and after that look at this week’s SLOOS release.Then it is time to talk geopolitics and Ukraine.

5 Things We Watch: Macro Regime, Riyadh Accord, Sloos, Ukraine, USD

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>USD consolidation yesterday after hefty losses last week have developed into more gains on the session so far today.</li><li>Stocks are a bit softer, bonds are better supported, with European fixed income outperforming modestly, while crude prices have dropped back.</li><li>Fed President Kashkari commented late yesterday that it was “too soon to declare victory over inflation”, helping add to the USD’s rebound.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

USD consolidation yesterday after hefty losses last week have developed into more gains on the session so far today.Stocks are a bit softer, bonds are better supported, with European fixed income outperforming modestly, while crude prices have dropped back.Fed President Kashkari commented late yesterday that it was “too soon to declare victory over inflation”, helping add to the USD’s rebound.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Steadies, Focus Turns to Fed Speakers

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD is trading broadly lower to start the week.</li><li>Treasury yields have nudged up a little on the session but European bond yields are up 3-4bps more on the day.</li><li>Stocks are lower in Europe but US equity futures are trading in the green. Crude oil prices remain choppy but have reversed some of Friday’s weakness. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD is trading broadly lower to start the week.Treasury yields have nudged up a little on the session but European bond yields are up 3-4bps more on the day.Stocks are lower in Europe but US equity futures are trading in the green. Crude oil prices remain choppy but have reversed some of Friday’s weakness. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>3Q23 results recap: growth recovered, but negative surprises prevailed</li><li>The market’s overall earnings improved in 3Q23 with operating profits growth rebounding to -4% yoy/+13% yoy ex-mining vs. 2Q23’s -6%/+11% yoy, hence driving 9M23 growth to -5% yoy/ +5% ex-mining (based on our coverage universe that has reported results).</li><li>While the 9M23 earnings were also broadly in-line with expectations (53%/ 43% of the companies’ results were in-line with our FY23F/the consensus), surprises skewed to the downside with 28%/ 34% missing (vs. 19%/23% beating estimates). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

3Q23 results recap: growth recovered, but negative surprises prevailedThe market’s overall earnings improved in 3Q23 with operating profits growth rebounding to -4% yoy/+13% yoy ex-mining vs. 2Q23’s -6%/+11% yoy, hence driving 9M23 growth to -5% yoy/ +5% ex-mining (based on our coverage universe that has reported results).While the 9M23 earnings were also broadly in-line with expectations (53%/ 43% of the companies’ results were in-line with our FY23F/the consensus), surprises skewed to the downside with 28%/ 34% missing (vs. 19%/23% beating estimates). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Strategy: 3Q23 EPS growth improved, expect more growth catalysts in 4Q23

<ul>
<li>The quarterly SLOOS survey from the Fed was released a bit more than an hour ago and the results resemble the quarterly credit surveys from Japan and Europe released ahead of the US ditto.</li>
<li>There is a sequential improvement in demand, while fewer banks tighten standards compared to Q3.</li>
<li>So, is it good news or did the survey rather confirm the credit contraction?</li>
</ul>


The quarterly SLOOS survey from the Fed was released a bit more than an hour ago and the results resemble the quarterly credit surveys from Japan and Europe released ahead of the US ditto.
There is a sequential improvement in demand, while fewer banks tighten standards compared to Q3.
So, is it good news or did the survey rather confirm the credit contraction?


Credit Watch: The Worst Is Behind Us in the SLOOS, But…

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5 Things We Watch: Macro Regime, Riyadh Accord, Sloos, Ukraine, USD

This week we would like to draw your attention to our monthly macro regime indicator which has been updated. Then we’ll argue for a Riyadh Accord,...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Steadies, Focus Turns to Fed Speakers

Stocks are a bit softer, bonds are better supported, with European fixed income outperforming modestly, while crude prices have dropped back.

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Strength Unravels

The USD is trading broadly lower to start the week. Treasury yields have nudged up a little on the session but European bond yields are up 3-4bps...

Scotiabank

Equity Strategy: 3Q23 EPS growth improved, expect more growth catalysts in 4Q23

The market’s overall earnings improved in 3Q23 with operating profits growth rebounding to -4% yoy/+13% yoy ex-mining vs. 2Q23’s -6%/+11% yoy

BRI Danareksa Research

Credit Watch: The Worst Is Behind Us in the SLOOS, But…

The quarterly SLOOS survey from the Fed was released a bit more than an hour ago and the results resemble the quarterly credit surveys from Japan...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)