Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Are we starting to see the early signs of a 2022 dynamic in LNG?</li>
<li>The below chart describes the scenario we saw late summer last year here in Europe when policymakers all the sudden scrambled to secure natural gas.</li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;">For the cycle to truly have the chance of playing out we need natural gas demand to increase and the USD to strengthen as a product of the increase in demand.</span></li>
</ul>


Are we starting to see the early signs of a 2022 dynamic in LNG?
The below chart describes the scenario we saw late summer last year here in Europe when policymakers all the sudden scrambled to secure natural gas.
For the cycle to truly have the chance of playing out we need natural gas demand to increase and the USD to strengthen as a product of the increase in demand.


The Energy Cable #34 – Double Top… Now What?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>It’s Jackson Hole week and even if Wyoming is typically only full of cowboys (also when CBs gather), they are joined by a cowgirl from France this week for the conference.</li>
<li>The Fed and the ECB will enter the yearly conference with different macroeconomic backdrops as the US growth and inflation momentum seems stickier than Euro peers on our models.</li>
<li>And using leads/lags from the European PPI basket and the US HICP index, we intend on showing you that sub 2% inflation in Europe is a clear possibility in just 3 months from now.</li>
</ul>


It’s Jackson Hole week and even if Wyoming is typically only full of cowboys (also when CBs gather), they are joined by a cowgirl from France this week for the conference.
The Fed and the ECB will enter the yearly conference with different macroeconomic backdrops as the US growth and inflation momentum seems stickier than Euro peers on our models.
And using leads/lags from the European PPI basket and the US HICP index, we intend on showing you that sub 2% inflation in Europe is a clear possibility in just 3 months from now.


Inflation Watch: Why EUR Inflation Will Print Below 2% Before New Years

<ul><li>Markets are stuck in a discussion on the JPY this morning as BoJ governor Ueda and PM Kishida held a meeting allegedly discussing FX developments.</li><li>Our models continue to signal weakness ahead for the JPY.</li><li>Even a move to 1% in the YCC-curve control has NOT allowed the BoJ to become less interventionist.</li></ul>

Markets are stuck in a discussion on the JPY this morning as BoJ governor Ueda and PM Kishida held a meeting allegedly discussing FX developments.Our models continue to signal weakness ahead for the JPY.Even a move to 1% in the YCC-curve control has NOT allowed the BoJ to become less interventionist.

FX Nugget: What Policy Normalization? The BoJ Is as Interventionist as Ever….

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>'Bidenomics' investment subsidies aided the 7.7%QoQsaar growth in business investment in Q2CY23, delaying the onset of recession. Policy rate to stay near 5.5% until Q2CY24, thereby restraining growth until then.</li>
<li>ECB and BoE face less pressure to raise rates amid easing headline inflation, so yield differentials will strengthen USD; the latter will be a drag on net exports in H2CY23.</li>
<li>The spending restraints agreed in May'23 kick in from Oct'23, and will be a drag on aggregate demand from Q4CY23, the quarter a mild recession is likely to begin. </li>
</ul>


'Bidenomics' investment subsidies aided the 7.7%QoQsaar growth in business investment in Q2CY23, delaying the onset of recession. Policy rate to stay near 5.5% until Q2CY24, thereby restraining growth until then.
ECB and BoE face less pressure to raise rates amid easing headline inflation, so yield differentials will strengthen USD; the latter will be a drag on net exports in H2CY23.
The spending restraints agreed in May'23 kick in from Oct'23, and will be a drag on aggregate demand from Q4CY23, the quarter a mild recession is likely to begin. 


'Bidenomics' Delays Recession, but USD Rebound & Fiscal Reins Are Tipping Points

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s Great Game which will focus on two hot current topics and how to understand them – first the F16 donations to Ukraine and then the BRICS meeting in South Africa.</li><li>First of all, let’s try to unwrap the latest European gift to Ukraine:The F16s are no gamechanger in current numbersAs mentioned several times in this space, the Ukranian summer offensive has halted mainly due to a lack of air superiority.</li><li>It’s simply too hard to break through heavily fortified Russian positions without air bombardment and close air support.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s Great Game which will focus on two hot current topics and how to understand them – first the F16 donations to Ukraine and then the BRICS meeting in South Africa.First of all, let’s try to unwrap the latest European gift to Ukraine:The F16s are no gamechanger in current numbersAs mentioned several times in this space, the Ukranian summer offensive has halted mainly due to a lack of air superiority.It’s simply too hard to break through heavily fortified Russian positions without air bombardment and close air support.

Great Game: Will F16s destroy Russia? Will BRICS destroy the USD?

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The Energy Cable #34 – Double Top… Now What?

Are we starting to see the early signs of a 2022 dynamic in LNG? The below chart describes the scenario we saw late summer last...

Steno Research

Inflation Watch: Why EUR Inflation Will Print Below 2% Before New Years

It’s Jackson Hole week and even if Wyoming is typically only full of cowboys (also when CBs gather), they are joined by a cowgirl from France this...

Steno Research

FX Nugget: What Policy Normalization? The BoJ Is as Interventionist as Ever….

Markets are stuck in a discussion on the JPY this morning as BoJ governor Ueda and PM Kishida held a meeting allegedly discussing FX...

Steno Research

'Bidenomics' Delays Recession, but USD Rebound & Fiscal Reins Are Tipping Points

US averts recession before Q4CY23, as Bidenomics is buoying investment. Strong USD helped in H1 but will be a drag in H2CY23. Fiscal spending reins...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Great Game: Will F16s destroy Russia? Will BRICS destroy the USD?

Welcome to this week’s Great Game which will focus on two hot current topics and how to understand them – first the F16 donations to Ukraine and...

Steno Research

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