Steno Research

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>We just had the October inflation data from the US, and our projections were spot on.</li><li>0% MoM and 3.23% YoY, is a sign of successful cooling but also that tailwinds from base-effects are long gone.</li><li>As we rightly called, the energy component has collapsed, and while the category doesn’t contribute much (in its separate bracket) it does however feed into most of the other.</li></ul>

We just had the October inflation data from the US, and our projections were spot on.0% MoM and 3.23% YoY, is a sign of successful cooling but also that tailwinds from base-effects are long gone.As we rightly called, the energy component has collapsed, and while the category doesn’t contribute much (in its separate bracket) it does however feed into most of the other.

US CPI Reaction Nugget: Further Fuel for the Market Rally

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

<ul><li>While the internet seems totally preoccupied with the San Francisco summit between Xi and Biden, I find other news and analysis much more interesting right now.</li><li>This week saw the release of a major New York Times/Siena Poll of the 2024 Presidential Election – and some of the results were outright shocking.</li><li>I’m now at a point where a Trump win next November looks very likely to me.</li></ul>

While the internet seems totally preoccupied with the San Francisco summit between Xi and Biden, I find other news and analysis much more interesting right now.This week saw the release of a major New York Times/Siena Poll of the 2024 Presidential Election – and some of the results were outright shocking.I’m now at a point where a Trump win next November looks very likely to me.

Great Game – 3 Reasons Why Trump Will Win – And 1 Reason He Won’t

Managing Partner, VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Managing Partner

Valuation & Research Specialists (VRS) is a boutique financial advisor with more than 17 years of experience in Corporate Valuation and Finance, and a diversified client base including some of the largest Companies in Greece.

Since 2002, VRS has completed more than 200 engagements in the areas of business valuation and financial analysis for more than 100 clients in a wide range of industries.

VRS has been honored to work with small and large private and publicly traded companies in Europe and overseas.

Boutique Financial Advisor

FX & Rates

<ul><li>During the period under consideration, i.e. September 27th – October 27th, 2023, the EUR/USD exchange rate fluctuated between 1.049 and 1.061 until October 22nd, 2023, but thereafter it followed an instantaneous daily uptrend on October 23 to finally secure the price of 1.0668.</li><li>However, at the finish of October, the Euro notched a slight drop, but it was still trading higher than the levels at the end of September.</li><li>According to Graph 1, during the first 18 trading days of the period under consideration, the pair showed a consolidation pattern mainly along the range of 1.05-1.0593 (except 2 sessions). </li></ul>

During the period under consideration, i.e. September 27th – October 27th, 2023, the EUR/USD exchange rate fluctuated between 1.049 and 1.061 until October 22nd, 2023, but thereafter it followed an instantaneous daily uptrend on October 23 to finally secure the price of 1.0668.However, at the finish of October, the Euro notched a slight drop, but it was still trading higher than the levels at the end of September.According to Graph 1, during the first 18 trading days of the period under consideration, the pair showed a consolidation pattern mainly along the range of 1.05-1.0593 (except 2 sessions). 

Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD October 27, 2023

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul>
<li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! As per usual we take you for a chart-heavy guided macro tour around major asset classes.</li>
<li>Conclusions up front: – The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal– Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again– Equities still look (too) expensive on most parameters – JPY and CNY trends to continue worsening– Oil bulls have less to cheer about than Nat Gas bulls</li>
<li>Momentum in 2023 saw a positive impulse from 1) lower input costs for production due to lower commodity and energy prices than in 2022 and 2) Easing financial conditions due to higher multiples and an easing momentum in rates.</li>
</ul>


Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! As per usual we take you for a chart-heavy guided macro tour around major asset classes.
Conclusions up front: – The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal– Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again– Equities still look (too) expensive on most parameters – JPY and CNY trends to continue worsening– Oil bulls have less to cheer about than Nat Gas bulls
Momentum in 2023 saw a positive impulse from 1) lower input costs for production due to lower commodity and energy prices than in 2022 and 2) Easing financial conditions due to higher multiples and an easing momentum in rates.


Steno Signals #73 – An Abysmal Impulse for 2024

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Remember the abysmal numbers seen in the US economy around the year-turn of 2022/2023 and the sharp rebound in numbers into February/March (December and January data respectively)?</li><li>Well, for those of you who have been clients of Steno Research since January, it is no surprise that these trends were driven by extreme adjustment activities in spreadsheets.</li><li>The seasonal factors in ISM Manufacturing reached record negative territory in January, but adjustments penciled in for Dec this year are clearly less extreme.</li></ul>

Remember the abysmal numbers seen in the US economy around the year-turn of 2022/2023 and the sharp rebound in numbers into February/March (December and January data respectively)?Well, for those of you who have been clients of Steno Research since January, it is no surprise that these trends were driven by extreme adjustment activities in spreadsheets.The seasonal factors in ISM Manufacturing reached record negative territory in January, but adjustments penciled in for Dec this year are clearly less extreme.

Seasonality Watch: Why a Dec hike remains in play

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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EURO/US DOLLAR (EURUSD CURNCY)

US CPI Reaction Nugget: Further Fuel for the Market Rally

We just had the October inflation data from the US, and our projections were spot on. 0% MoM and 3.23% YoY, is a sign of successful cooling but...

Steno Research

Great Game – 3 Reasons Why Trump Will Win – And 1 Reason He Won’t

This week saw the release of a major New York Times/Siena Poll of the 2024 Presidential Election – and some of the results were outright shocking.

Steno Research

Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD October 27, 2023

During the period under consideration, i.e. September 27th – October 27th, 2023, the EUR/USD exchange rate fluctuated between 1.049 and 1.061 until...

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Steno Signals #73 – An Abysmal Impulse for 2024

The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal; Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again; Equities still look (too) expensive on most...

Steno Research

Seasonality Watch: Why a Dec hike remains in play

Remember the abysmal numbers seen in the US economy around the year-turn of 2022/2023 and the sharp rebound in numbers into February/March...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)