Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>EUR assets will suffer if the activity levels rebound too quickly due to a lack of elasticity in the commodity/energy supply in Europe.</li><li>The EUR (and EUR assets) have suffered from a damned if you do, damned if you don’t a scenario in recent years as the scarcity of energy has taken center stage in the pricing of everything from the EUR, to EUR discount rates and EUR risk assets.</li><li>Low volatility in energy prices allows energy-sensitive industrials to brighten up the outlook, which is initially good for the EUR, but the problem is just that there is a potential negative embedded feedback loop in that journey.</li></ul>

EUR assets will suffer if the activity levels rebound too quickly due to a lack of elasticity in the commodity/energy supply in Europe.The EUR (and EUR assets) have suffered from a damned if you do, damned if you don’t a scenario in recent years as the scarcity of energy has taken center stage in the pricing of everything from the EUR, to EUR discount rates and EUR risk assets.Low volatility in energy prices allows energy-sensitive industrials to brighten up the outlook, which is initially good for the EUR, but the problem is just that there is a potential negative embedded feedback loop in that journey.

EUR Watch: Damned if You Do Until You Are Damned if You Don’t

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>This week we start out by looking at Trump’s chances of getting reelected then move on to European electricity markets after that we’ll discuss yesterday’s CPI print before moving on to crude oil and then ending with fixed income positioning.</li><li>President Biden’s approval ratings continue to sour as the country heads into potential Oil price headwinds and numerous unsolved foreign policy challenges.</li><li>The Biden camp has launched a number of PR offensives during 2023 – most notably the coining of “Bidenomics”, but none have managed to close the gap, which has even accelerated since summertime.</li></ul>

This week we start out by looking at Trump’s chances of getting reelected then move on to European electricity markets after that we’ll discuss yesterday’s CPI print before moving on to crude oil and then ending with fixed income positioning.President Biden’s approval ratings continue to sour as the country heads into potential Oil price headwinds and numerous unsolved foreign policy challenges.The Biden camp has launched a number of PR offensives during 2023 – most notably the coining of “Bidenomics”, but none have managed to close the gap, which has even accelerated since summertime.

5 Things We Watch: Trump, Electricity, CPI, Crude Oil, Fixed Income

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Last week’s broad rise in the USD is showing some signs of rolling over as markets position for the key economic releases due from the US in the next couple of days.</li><li>Today’s October CPI is expected to show a 0.1% rise in headline prices and a deceleration in the year-on-year rate to 3.3%, down from 3.7% in September.</li><li>Core prices are expected to rise 0.3% for a 4.1% gain in the October year—unchanged from September’s read. Retail Sales tomorrow are expected to reflect soft headline consumer activity in October (-0.3% m/m). </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Last week’s broad rise in the USD is showing some signs of rolling over as markets position for the key economic releases due from the US in the next couple of days.Today’s October CPI is expected to show a 0.1% rise in headline prices and a deceleration in the year-on-year rate to 3.3%, down from 3.7% in September.Core prices are expected to rise 0.3% for a 4.1% gain in the October year—unchanged from September’s read. Retail Sales tomorrow are expected to reflect soft headline consumer activity in October (-0.3% m/m). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>We have so far seen a very contained market reaction to the electricity aid package from Germany last week, but there are loads of reasons why markets can absorb the demand-fuelling news in energy markets short-term.</li><li>Maybe there is a window of opportunity for the German industry before price pressures return?</li><li>The IFO index covering the Germany industry is likely going to improve in the coming months.</li></ul>

We have so far seen a very contained market reaction to the electricity aid package from Germany last week, but there are loads of reasons why markets can absorb the demand-fuelling news in energy markets short-term.Maybe there is a window of opportunity for the German industry before price pressures return?The IFO index covering the Germany industry is likely going to improve in the coming months.

Electricity Watch: Why Ze Germans Are OK for Now

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, which due to delays in the CFTC data has been postponed to today (data was available yesterday evening).</li>
<li>Almost as usual, markets find themselves in an odd position, as they await the next big event to move price action after Powell’s latest shocker a couple of weeks ago coupled with a severe sell-off in bonds in recent weeks.</li>
<li>Today’s CPI report will likely not change a whole lot, but equity markets may continue their run upward if we are right in our prediction from yesterday (more on that here).</li>
</ul>


Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, which due to delays in the CFTC data has been postponed to today (data was available yesterday evening).
Almost as usual, markets find themselves in an odd position, as they await the next big event to move price action after Powell’s latest shocker a couple of weeks ago coupled with a severe sell-off in bonds in recent weeks.
Today’s CPI report will likely not change a whole lot, but equity markets may continue their run upward if we are right in our prediction from yesterday (more on that here).


Positioning Watch – The Cocktail of Heavy Logs in Both Equities and Bonds

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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EUR Watch: Damned if You Do Until You Are Damned if You Don’t

EUR assets will suffer if the activity levels rebound too quickly due to a lack of elasticity in the commodity/energy supply in Europe.

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch: Trump, Electricity, CPI, Crude Oil, Fixed Income

This week we start out by looking at Trump’s chances of getting reelected then move on to European electricity markets after that we’ll discuss...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Mixed Ahead of CPI

Last week’s broad rise in the USD is showing some signs of rolling over as markets position for the key economic releases due from the US in the...

Scotiabank

Electricity Watch: Why Ze Germans Are OK for Now

Energy-sensitive sectors such as Chemicals, Metals and Autos will probably see improving orders to inventory ratios in a light cyclical upturn.

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – The Cocktail of Heavy Logs in Both Equities and Bonds

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, which due to delays in the CFTC data has been postponed to today (data was...

Steno Research

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