External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Broader bearish USD sentiment has moderated somewhat, the latest positioning data from the CFTC shows.</li><li>Non-Commercial Accounts cut short USD positioning by a little over USD3.4bn in the week through Tuesday, taking the aggregate bear bet on the USD versus the major currencies back to USD15.8bn.</li><li>Data shows that Real Money Accounts trimmed their overall short USD position USD2.4bn to USD38.9bn over the week while Leveraged Accounts lifted their (modest) short USD position by USD2.5bn to USD4.8bn.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Broader bearish USD sentiment has moderated somewhat, the latest positioning data from the CFTC shows.Non-Commercial Accounts cut short USD positioning by a little over USD3.4bn in the week through Tuesday, taking the aggregate bear bet on the USD versus the major currencies back to USD15.8bn.Data shows that Real Money Accounts trimmed their overall short USD position USD2.4bn to USD38.9bn over the week while Leveraged Accounts lifted their (modest) short USD position by USD2.5bn to USD4.8bn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Sentiment Moderates

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We have spent this Sunday evening trying to prepare ourselves for the opening given the turmoil expected in China after Country Gardens (the former largest developer) is to suspend trading of at least 10 onshore bonds after a week where they failed to pay coupons of a couple of international payments.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng Property Index (HSP) is down 20% y-t-d but only lost 0.2% on Friday despite another landslide in the Country Garden stock.</li>
<li>If the HSP Index drops over the coming days, it ought to be taken as a signal that Chinese RE credit will decline further due to a lack of confidence in the financial system.</li>
</ul>


We have spent this Sunday evening trying to prepare ourselves for the opening given the turmoil expected in China after Country Gardens (the former largest developer) is to suspend trading of at least 10 onshore bonds after a week where they failed to pay coupons of a couple of international payments.
The Hang Seng Property Index (HSP) is down 20% y-t-d but only lost 0.2% on Friday despite another landslide in the Country Garden stock.
If the HSP Index drops over the coming days, it ought to be taken as a signal that Chinese RE credit will decline further due to a lack of confidence in the financial system.


Asset Allocation Watch: Country Garden Melt-Down? 5 Charts on Cross-Asset Spill-Overs!

<ul>
<li>Welcome to our weekly flagship editorial.</li>
<li>The markets over the past week or two have made little sense as commodities (especially energy) have continued to outperform risk assets despite China apparently suffering from long-covid symptoms economically.</li>
<li>Chinese money and credit trends look worse than US trends post Lehman, which means that either China rebounds or else it is the end of the Chinese economy as we know it! We have timed our rotation from high-beta tech/AI to Energy/Commodity proxies amazingly well, but we need to remain vigilant at this juncture.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to our weekly flagship editorial.
The markets over the past week or two have made little sense as commodities (especially energy) have continued to outperform risk assets despite China apparently suffering from long-covid symptoms economically.
Chinese money and credit trends look worse than US trends post Lehman, which means that either China rebounds or else it is the end of the Chinese economy as we know it! We have timed our rotation from high-beta tech/AI to Energy/Commodity proxies amazingly well, but we need to remain vigilant at this juncture.


Steno Signals #60: Worse than Lehman in China!? The 3 Most Important Questions Right Now!

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly Portfolio Watch.</li><li>Here, we delve into the performance of our portfolio and take a close look at the ever-changing landscape of financial markets.</li><li>Our decision to pivot towards energy and other traditional sectors seems to have been well-timed.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly Portfolio Watch.Here, we delve into the performance of our portfolio and take a close look at the ever-changing landscape of financial markets.Our decision to pivot towards energy and other traditional sectors seems to have been well-timed.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The CAD is heading for a fourth, consecutive lower weekly close on the USD, although the USD may end today well below its high point of the week reached on Tuesday.</li><li>It’s summertime, and markets are thin which may help explain the CAD’s recent disappointing performance.</li><li>Local USD sellers have emerged to take advantage of this week’s USD’s advance this week and place hedges. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The CAD is heading for a fourth, consecutive lower weekly close on the USD, although the USD may end today well below its high point of the week reached on Tuesday.It’s summertime, and markets are thin which may help explain the CAD’s recent disappointing performance.Local USD sellers have emerged to take advantage of this week’s USD’s advance this week and place hedges. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Stretches Undervaluation

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Sentiment Moderates

Non-Commercial Accounts cut short USD positioning by a little over USD3.4bn in the week through Tuesday, taking the aggregate bear bet on the USD

Scotiabank

Asset Allocation Watch: Country Garden Melt-Down? 5 Charts on Cross-Asset Spill-Overs!

We have spent this Sunday evening trying to prepare ourselves for the opening given the turmoil expected in China after Country Gardens (the former...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #60: Worse than Lehman in China!? The 3 Most Important Questions Right Now!

The markets over the past week or two have made little sense as commodities (especially energy) have continued to outperform risk assets despite...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Navigating Crossroads

We delve into the performance of our portfolio and take a close look at the ever-changing landscape of financial markets.

Steno Research

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Stretches Undervaluation

The CAD is heading for a fourth, consecutive lower weekly close on the USD, although the USD may end today well below its high point of the week...

Scotiabank

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