Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Brent Crude is approaching important levels at $124 and may be about to breakout</li>
<li>The overall picture on the chart indicates a move to $150. If seen with rising yields again, it would yet again provide a negative backdrop for equities.</li>
<li>While the S&amp;P 500 may stretch up to 4,300 in the short term, that would be a sell zone as the medium term picture points to further downside.</li>
</ul>


Brent Crude is approaching important levels at $124 and may be about to breakout
The overall picture on the chart indicates a move to $150. If seen with rising yields again, it would yet again provide a negative backdrop for equities.
While the S&amp;P 500 may stretch up to 4,300 in the short term, that would be a sell zone as the medium term picture points to further downside.


Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Nominal GDP increased 6.5%QoQsaar, but the GDP deflator was up 8%, so real GDP declined 1.4% in Q1CY22. With core PCE inflation at 5.4%, brace for 50bp hike next week.</li>
<li>With M2 growing faster in Apr'20-Mar'21 than any time in the past 150 years, the recent surge in inflation is precisely as we'd predicted.  The overheating economy needs monetary tightening. </li>
<li>Imports (+17.7% in Q1CY22) subtracted 2.5% from GDP and inventory-destocking subtracted 0.84%. These will be less negative as monetary policy tightens,  with FF rate rising to 2.75% by end-2022. </li>
</ul>


Nominal GDP increased 6.5%QoQsaar, but the GDP deflator was up 8%, so real GDP declined 1.4% in Q1CY22. With core PCE inflation at 5.4%, brace for 50bp hike next week.
With M2 growing faster in Apr'20-Mar'21 than any time in the past 150 years, the recent surge in inflation is precisely as we'd predicted.  The overheating economy needs monetary tightening. 
Imports (+17.7% in Q1CY22) subtracted 2.5% from GDP and inventory-destocking subtracted 0.84%. These will be less negative as monetary policy tightens,  with FF rate rising to 2.75% by end-2022. 


US Continues to Overheat, Reflected in a Seemingly-Weak GDP Print

<ul>
<li>The rebound on the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the past several weeks has been impressive, as is the case with other US stock market indices</li>
<li>However, when we zoom out and measure it in the proper manner against Gold with an historical lens, a different image emerges</li>
<li>Overall, the picture on this Spooky Chart –Dow/Gold Ratio– still warns of another low over the coming 1-2 months i.e. a move in favour of Gold and against stocks</li>
</ul>


The rebound on the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the past several weeks has been impressive, as is the case with other US stock market indices
However, when we zoom out and measure it in the proper manner against Gold with an historical lens, a different image emerges
Overall, the picture on this Spooky Chart –Dow/Gold Ratio– still warns of another low over the coming 1-2 months i.e. a move in favour of Gold and against stocks


Spooky Chart Update III - Dow/Gold: The Next Low Ahead

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>US breadth remains a challenge as we move into a more bearish April cycle. SPX risk to reward is less favorable above 4,500 (March ideal rally target).</li>
<li>Cycle: Call for more bullish cycle from March 16 (bottom on the 15th) into the 22nd, then expect a dip/rally into late March ahead of early April weakness/volatility.</li>
<li>RTY a top short under 2,100 and DJI to build a short toward 35k. Underperform makes a good case to short. NDX 15,100 ideal sell zone.</li>
</ul>


US breadth remains a challenge as we move into a more bearish April cycle. SPX risk to reward is less favorable above 4,500 (March ideal rally target).
Cycle: Call for more bullish cycle from March 16 (bottom on the 15th) into the 22nd, then expect a dip/rally into late March ahead of early April weakness/volatility.
RTY a top short under 2,100 and DJI to build a short toward 35k. Underperform makes a good case to short. NDX 15,100 ideal sell zone.


<ul>
<li>Fixed Income markets have stabilised after the Fed including the relentless rise in short end (2Y) yields. Short term Bonds are not a sell</li>
<li>Equity markets have also stabilised with positive short term price action while there are too many bears</li>
<li>The USD has stabilised and showing early signs of a slip (ex USDJPY). Watch the price action</li>
</ul>


Fixed Income markets have stabilised after the Fed including the relentless rise in short end (2Y) yields. Short term Bonds are not a sell
Equity markets have also stabilised with positive short term price action while there are too many bears
The USD has stabilised and showing early signs of a slip (ex USDJPY). Watch the price action


United States

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

A Crude Development

The rise in Oil is a development that cannot be ignored. A rally through $124 on Brent would open the way for not only $139 but possibly $150 -...

Shyam Devani

US Continues to Overheat, Reflected in a Seemingly-Weak GDP Print

GDP fell 1.4%QoQ in 1Q2022 because 6.5% nominal GDP growth was overwhelmed by 8% rise in GDP deflator; 17.7% rise in imports signals economic...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Spooky Chart Update III - Dow/Gold: The Next Low Ahead

The Spooky Chart - The Dow compared to the 1920's after the last pandemic - still provides a road map for where we are heading. We are warned of...

Shyam Devani

US Equity Risk/Reward Turning Negative

US breadth remains a challenge as we move into a more bearish April cycle. SPX risk to reward is less favorable above 4,500 (March ideal rally...

Thomas Schroeder

The MAD Report - Cross Market Analysis

A weekly report looking at price action across major markets. In the short term both a stock market and a bond market squeeze seem possible in the...

Shyam Devani