Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>
We are downgrading Consumer Discretionary to market weight as retail breakdowns and continued weakness in homebuilders and major autos has led to price and RS uptrend violations for the Sector. Reduce exposure.</li>
<li>
Many major indexes testing support. We cover the S&amp;P 500, Dow, small-caps, PHLX Semiconductor, international developed and emerging markets, which are all at logical support areas. While we expect to see these indexes firm up at current levels based on YTD trends, the potential for breakdowns is not far off.</li>
<li>
Big picture trends. The cyclicals  vs. staples ratio remains elevated and has not broken down. Something similar can be said of the growth vs. value ratio, where the uptrend remains intact.</li>
<li>
In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy, Consumer Staples, Materials, and Utilities.</li>
</ul>



We are downgrading Consumer Discretionary to market weight as retail breakdowns and continued weakness in homebuilders and major autos has led to price and RS uptrend violations for the Sector. Reduce exposure.

Many major indexes testing support. We cover the S&amp;P 500, Dow, small-caps, PHLX Semiconductor, international developed and emerging markets, which are all at logical support areas. While we expect to see these indexes firm up at current levels based on YTD trends, the potential for breakdowns is not far off.

Big picture trends. The cyclicals  vs. staples ratio remains elevated and has not broken down. Something similar can be said of the growth vs. value ratio, where the uptrend remains intact.

In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy, Consumer Staples, Materials, and Utilities.


Yield Surge Tests Equities; Downgrading Discretionary

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Macroeconomics

The monthly gain in non-farm payrolls (NFP) was a modest 157,000 in July 2018, well below consensus expectations of 190,000. Despite the considerable upward revisions of the previous two months' NFP, July was a softer month for a fiscally-fuelled US economy. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI moderated to an 11-month low of 55.7 (with the forward looking new orders slipping by 6.6 points MoM) and the manufacturing PMI was 1 point below its 12-month average in July, suggesting a broad-based loss of…

The monthly gain in non-farm payrolls (NFP) was a modest 157,000 in July 2018, well below consensus expectations of 190,000. Despite the considerable upward revisions of the previous two months' NFP, July was a softer month for a fiscally-fuelled US economy. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI moderated to an 11-month low of 55.7 (with the forward looking new orders slipping by 6.6 points MoM) and the manufacturing PMI was 1 point below its 12-month average in July, suggesting a broad-based loss of…

FOMC Retains Hawkish Tone Amid Higher Inflation, but ISM & NFP Betray First Signs of Growth Fatigue

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Trump's kowtow to Putin in Helsinki, coupled with the tightening of Mueller's vise around the 2016 Trump campaign's close ties to Russia, have tilted the balance in favour of moves to impeach Trump in 2019, once the Democrats have regained the House in this November's mid-term election. Although a Democrat-controlled House will impeach Trump, the Senate remains likely to vote against his ouster -- unless Mueller finds clinching evidence of clear collusion with Russia. With all Americans indicted…

Trump's kowtow to Putin in Helsinki, coupled with the tightening of Mueller's vise around the 2016 Trump campaign's close ties to Russia, have tilted the balance in favour of moves to impeach Trump in 2019, once the Democrats have regained the House in this November's mid-term election. Although a Democrat-controlled House will impeach Trump, the Senate remains likely to vote against his ouster -- unless Mueller finds clinching evidence of clear collusion with Russia. With all Americans indicted…

Will They Impeach? Not Yet, but Far More Likely in 2019, when a Recession Is Also Probable

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li>Cyclical indicators are softening this month - new orders index for the Philly Fed fell nearly 23 points while Japan’s PMI new export orders component fell for the first time in 22mths to sub 50.</li>
<li>A sustained tariff war and its unpredictable impact on highly integrated global supply chains as with Daimler’s profit warning last week is now generating downside volatility.</li>
<li>The 20% slump in mainland shares from recent highs has been less about trade war fears as deteriorating liquidity, reflected in…</li>
</ul>


Cyclical indicators are softening this month - new orders index for the Philly Fed fell nearly 23 points while Japan’s PMI new export orders component fell for the first time in 22mths to sub 50.
A sustained tariff war and its unpredictable impact on highly integrated global supply chains as with Daimler’s profit warning last week is now generating downside volatility.
The 20% slump in mainland shares from recent highs has been less about trade war fears as deteriorating liquidity, reflected in…


Trade Risks Start to Impact, as China Biotech Ambitions Grow…

Trump's idea that "trade wars are easy to win" is true only in one narrow sense: the US, having the economy with the largest trade deficit, has substantially greater negotiating clout if it chooses to use it, especially as its trading partners are substantially more trade-dependent. With the economy strong, the US is willing to use that bargaining power: by upping the ante on tariffs to US$200bn of imports from China (more than China imports from the US annually), Trump is demonstrating that…

Trump's idea that "trade wars are easy to win" is true only in one narrow sense: the US, having the economy with the largest trade deficit, has substantially greater negotiating clout if it chooses to use it, especially as its trading partners are substantially more trade-dependent. With the economy strong, the US is willing to use that bargaining power: by upping the ante on tariffs to US$200bn of imports from China (more than China imports from the US annually), Trump is demonstrating that…

Trump's Upside-Down Trade Policy Wrecks Alliances & Makes US "Adversaries" Smile, but He Has a Point

United States

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Yield Surge Tests Equities; Downgrading Discretionary

We are downgrading Consumer Discretionary to market weight as retail breakdowns and continued weakness in homebuilders and major autos has led to...

Vermilion Research

FOMC Retains Hawkish Tone Amid Higher Inflation, but ISM & NFP Betray First Signs of Growth Fatigue

The monthly gain in non-farm payrolls (NFP) was a modest 157,000 in July 2018, well below consensus expectations of 190,000. Despite the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Will They Impeach? Not Yet, but Far More Likely in 2019, when a Recession Is Also Probable

Trump's kowtow to Putin in Helsinki, coupled with the tightening of Mueller's vise around the 2016 Trump campaign's close ties to Russia, have...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Trade Risks Start to Impact, as China Biotech Ambitions Grow…

Cyclical indicators are softening this month - new orders index for the Philly Fed fell nearly 23 points while Japan’s PMI new export orders...

Sean Maher

Trump's Upside-Down Trade Policy Wrecks Alliances & Makes US "Adversaries" Smile, but He Has a Point

Trump's idea that "trade wars are easy to win" is true only in one narrow sense: the US, having the economy with the largest trade deficit, has...

Prasenjit K. Basu