Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

This insight outlines the tight oil/equity correlation within the context of the oil/USD link and outlines why Euro resistance is the make or break level for the current elevated risk-on euphoric rise. Looking at Asia and EM macro cycles suggest there is a lot more upside potential into 2019 but this FX pivot point will be able to identify any tactical correction that is due in February (and then Q2).Oil, in recent years has demonstrated a tight correlation with US equities and risk with…

This insight outlines the tight oil/equity correlation within the context of the oil/USD link and outlines why Euro resistance is the make or break level for the current elevated risk-on euphoric rise. Looking at Asia and EM macro cycles suggest there is a lot more upside potential into 2019 but this FX pivot point will be able to identify any tactical correction that is due in February (and then Q2).Oil, in recent years has demonstrated a tight correlation with US equities and risk with…

Single Chart Inflection Point that Will Define Risk in 1H 2018

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

A 120-year History of Extreme Momentum: Is this month’s 30-year record reading in the World Index a sign of bullish acceleration, or bearish exhaustion? This is a very rare event, so what does history tell us?Firstly, that this is a unique juncture in market history, at least in more modern times.Since the inception of the Dow indices in 1897, no bull market has produced this much momentum this late in the cycle. I therefore view it as more likely that the market is in the throes of a buying climax, but one which is not quite complete. A 6% rise from the close when the 8-week RSI hit the 75% mark would put SPX at 3,003 and MXWD at 561.  (The stats in the table suggest this % as a minimum).However, since markets rarely peak on peak momentum (the only exceptions were 1897 and 1968), any sharp correction as buying is exhausted should be followed by at least one more attempt at a new high thereafter.Does this change my view that the Technology bull market is ending?  No.  And if my conclusion about a buying climax is correct, it arguably supports it.  As for NASDAQ 100 being "game over", this confirms that it is probably still in "extra time".  Perhaps I should have said "Game (Nearly) Over" ... If you read the results differently from me, I would love to hear.

A 120-year History of Extreme Momentum: Is this month’s 30-year record reading in the World Index a sign of bullish acceleration, or bearish exhaustion? This is a very rare event, so what does history tell us?Firstly, that this is a unique juncture in market history, at least in more modern times.Since the inception of the Dow indices in 1897, no bull market has produced this much momentum this late in the cycle. I therefore view it as more likely that the market is in the throes of a buying climax, but one which is not quite complete. A 6% rise from the close when the 8-week RSI hit the 75% mark would put SPX at 3,003 and MXWD at 561.  (The stats in the table suggest this % as a minimum).However, since markets rarely peak on peak momentum (the only exceptions were 1897 and 1968), any sharp correction as buying is exhausted should be followed by at least one more attempt at a new high thereafter.Does this change my view that the Technology bull market is ending?  No.  And if my conclusion about a buying climax is correct, it arguably supports it.  As for NASDAQ 100 being "game over", this confirms that it is probably still in "extra time".  Perhaps I should have said "Game (Nearly) Over" ... If you read the results differently from me, I would love to hear.  

World Index: A 120-Year History of Extreme Momentum

Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus, Aletheia Capital

Chris Roberts

Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

In this report we remind investors of the bigger picture for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index MXEF – USD1,120) – the 3rd long-term acceleration phase since the index’s inception in December 1987 is underway from the February 2016 low. The first two long-term acceleration phases in 1987-1994 and 2002-2007 resulted in spectacular returns.In Part 1 of this report we examined the price history of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index since inception in December 1987 and looked at the upside potential for the using long-term technical analysis. In Part 2 we introduce an extremely bullish alternative interpretation of the price action since the Global Financial Crisis low in 2008.We also look at some of the leading country constituents in the index: China, Korea, Brazil, South Africa and Russia.

In this report we remind investors of the bigger picture for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index MXEF – USD1,120) – the 3rd long-term acceleration phase since the index’s inception in December 1987 is underway from the February 2016 low. The first two long-term acceleration phases in 1987-1994 and 2002-2007 resulted in spectacular returns.In Part 1 of this report we examined the price history of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index since inception in December 1987 and looked at the upside potential for the using long-term technical analysis. In Part 2 we introduce an extremely bullish alternative interpretation of the price action since the Global Financial Crisis low in 2008.We also look at some of the leading country constituents in the index: China, Korea, Brazil, South Africa and Russia. 

MSCI Emerging Markets Index: Another Long-Term Acceleration Phase (Part 2)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

In our November Macro Vision report, we provide an appraisal and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors, with extra attention devoted to opportunities within the following areas: <ul><li>Energy:Market Weight.  Energy has shown a significant improvement over the last several months. A majority of the E&amp;P’s are breaking topside of their respective 200-day moving averages. A number of offshore drillers, which have lagged significantly over the last several years are reversing long-term downtrends and breaking above their respective 200-day moving averages.  </li></ul><ul><li>Financials: Overweight. Financials continue to demonstrate long-term leadership characteristics, with many breaking out to new highs or break above major bases.  </li></ul><ul><li>Technology: Overweight. Technology continues to reign in terms of leadership. The bases in this Sector are enormous, dating back to the 2000 bubble, and we believe that the upside potential after many years of consolidation is significant.  </li></ul><ul><li>Manufacturing: Overweight.  The main stalwart of strength had been within the confines of the aerospace industry, however automobile, truck, and construction equipment have garnered much of the attention over the last few months. We believe this is a positive sign for the economy.</li></ul>

In our November Macro Vision report, we provide an appraisal and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors, with extra attention devoted to opportunities within the following areas: Energy:Market Weight.  Energy has shown a significant improvement over the last several months. A majority of the E&amp;P’s are breaking topside of their respective 200-day moving averages. A number of offshore drillers, which have lagged significantly over the last several years are reversing long-term downtrends and breaking above their respective 200-day moving averages.  Financials: Overweight. Financials continue to demonstrate long-term leadership characteristics, with many breaking out to new highs or break above major bases.  Technology: Overweight. Technology continues to reign in terms of leadership. The bases in this Sector are enormous, dating back to the 2000 bubble, and we believe that the upside potential after many years of consolidation is significant.  Manufacturing: Overweight.  The main stalwart of strength had been within the confines of the aerospace industry, however automobile, truck, and construction equipment have garnered much of the attention over the last few months. We believe this is a positive sign for the economy.

U.S. Equity Strategy & Individual Sector Commentaries

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

-Appointing a non-economist as Fed chair is akin to appointing an economist (without legal training) as Chief Justice. The last time it happened, the US went into Stagflation. The flattening yield curve this time is already signalling recession risks for 2018; the appointment of Taylor and Warsh to two of the four emerging governor vacancies at the Fed will shift policy inexorably in a hawkish direction, and tip the US into recession by the end of 2018. -With the Democrats winning the…

-Appointing a non-economist as Fed chair is akin to appointing an economist (without legal training) as Chief Justice. The last time it happened, the US went into Stagflation. The flattening yield curve this time is already signalling recession risks for 2018; the appointment of Taylor and Warsh to two of the four emerging governor vacancies at the Fed will shift policy inexorably in a hawkish direction, and tip the US into recession by the end of 2018. -With the Democrats winning the…

Trump Now Has a Clear Path to Damage the Fed, Even as He Loses Political Ground

United States

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Single Chart Inflection Point that Will Define Risk in 1H 2018

This insight outlines the tight oil/equity correlation within the context of the oil/USD link and outlines why Euro resistance is the make or break...

Thomas Schroeder

World Index: A 120-Year History of Extreme Momentum

A 120-year History of Extreme Momentum: Is this month’s 30-year record reading in the World Index a sign of bullish acceleration, or bearish...