Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Cross Asset Strategy

Given the turns already seen in bonds and industrial metals, as well as major Equity indices failing to convincingly make new highs, the Oil chart seems to now be the one that could be 'out of tune' with the rest.Developments this week give early warning signs that we might be posting an interim high. The week's closing price will be key as well as the price action over the next few sessions.

Given the turns already seen in bonds and industrial metals, as well as major Equity indices failing to convincingly make new highs, the Oil chart seems to now be the one that could be 'out of tune' with the rest.Developments this week give early warning signs that we might be posting an interim high. The week's closing price will be key as well as the price action over the next few sessions.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Base case called for a head fake rally that fell just shy of our 4,264 projection as we roll into the more turbulent late June cycle. Slipping back below 4,240 represents a breakout failure and did break some short term support (now resistance on a bounce attempt).Our short focus has been  the DJI  that is showing some breadth and Dow theory red flags by not seeing a minor new high in line with the SPX. Our attention now turns to the NDX at the top of the wedge as the next short play.USD is gaining traction as yields bounced off of key support.A late June wobble and potential tantrum will set the stage for a nice long entry in July.

Base case called for a head fake rally that fell just shy of our 4,264 projection as we roll into the more turbulent late June cycle. Slipping back below 4,240 represents a breakout failure and did break some short term support (now resistance on a bounce attempt).Our short focus has been  the DJI  that is showing some breadth and Dow theory red flags by not seeing a minor new high in line with the SPX. Our attention now turns to the NDX at the top of the wedge as the next short play.USD is gaining traction as yields bounced off of key support.A late June wobble and potential tantrum will set the stage for a nice long entry in July. 

SPX Breakout Failure and Where to Focus Shorts into Late June Wobble

Is it still the time to be defensive on equities and have a notable allocation in Bonds as was described in the note from 11 May (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/us-equities-time-to-get-defensive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51332" rel="noopener">US Equities: Time to Get Defensive</a>)?Whichever chart we look at across markets - whether in fixed income, commodities, foreign exchange, or equities - the signs are clear…stay long bonds (Treasuries) in this environment for the short term.

Is it still the time to be defensive on equities and have a notable allocation in Bonds as was described in the note from 11 May (see US Equities: Time to Get Defensive)?Whichever chart we look at across markets - whether in fixed income, commodities, foreign exchange, or equities - the signs are clear…stay long bonds (Treasuries) in this environment for the short term.

The past 24 hours has seen a bearish outside day on the S&amp;P 500 e-mini futureThe last time we saw that was at the very high on 10 May when we finished at 4,183.From that level we fell an additional 154 points over 2+ sessionsAre we to see the same again and if so, what else could that suggest?

The past 24 hours has seen a bearish outside day on the S&amp;P 500 e-mini futureThe last time we saw that was at the very high on 10 May when we finished at 4,183.From that level we fell an additional 154 points over 2+ sessionsAre we to see the same again and if so, what else could that suggest?

The bounce back in the Nikkei 225 earlier this week might have initially looked 'constructive'However, judging from where it has so far stalled, the downside target of the 26,300-26,500 area still seems to be the danger in this environment. Refreshed chart below...

The bounce back in the Nikkei 225 earlier this week might have initially looked 'constructive'However, judging from where it has so far stalled, the downside target of the 26,300-26,500 area still seems to be the danger in this environment. Refreshed chart below...

United States

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Crude Oil: The Next Market to Watch

Developments this week give early warning signs that we might be posting an interim high. The week's closing price will be key as well as the price...

Shyam Devani

SPX Breakout Failure and Where to Focus Shorts into Late June Wobble

Base case called for a head fake rally that fell just shy of our 4,264 projection as we roll into the more turbulent late June cycle. Slipping back...

Thomas Schroeder

Bonds: All Charts Lead to Me

As we look across financial markets, there is an increasing degree of conviction that higher [US] bond prices and lower yields are likely to be...

Shyam Devani

S&P 500: Price Action Notes

A closer look at the S&P 500 e-mini future gives fresh indications that lower levels are likely to be seen over the coming days and possibly even...

Shyam Devani

Nikkei 225 Fails at the Sell Zone

The rebound on the Nikkei earlier this week seems to have given a fresh opportunity to sell as we stall at the 28,300 pivot / sell zone

Shyam Devani