Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

The Big Risks For 2022 .... Large Debts, Less Liquidity and Growing Indexation?

US Monetary Policy Stays Ultra-Loose Amid 30-Year-High Inflation; 'Taper' a Misnomer

Biden's "Socialist" Remake of the US: How Much Will Be Too Much for the Blue Dogs?

US Wages Are Resurgent, Even if Markets Haven't Noticed; Keep Your Eye on Inflation

US: Moving from Stealth to Formal Taper; Bond Yields Will Gently Rise

2 Months of Stealth Taper and Mild Delta-Driven Slowdown; but Inflation Still Surging

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>M2 growth consistently in the 12-13% YoY range is the key reason why all core inflation gauges scaled 30-year highs last month. Fiscal stimulus was a secondary contributor.</li>
<li>Mere tapering of asset purchases will not materially slow M2 growth, and housing will likely boost inflation further. FOMC will be obliged to tighten earlier in 2022 than markets expect. </li>
<li>Despite the US$1.2tn Infrastructure Act, the fiscal deficit in FY2022 will be only 5% of GDP, from 12.4% in FY2021, restraining the recovery. Stagflation will result by mid-2022. </li>
</ul>


M2 growth consistently in the 12-13% YoY range is the key reason why all core inflation gauges scaled 30-year highs last month. Fiscal stimulus was a secondary contributor.
Mere tapering of asset purchases will not materially slow M2 growth, and housing will likely boost inflation further. FOMC will be obliged to tighten earlier in 2022 than markets expect. 
Despite the US$1.2tn Infrastructure Act, the fiscal deficit in FY2022 will be only 5% of GDP, from 12.4% in FY2021, restraining the recovery. Stagflation will result by mid-2022. 


Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Inflation Caused by Monetary Surge; Risk of Stagflation in 2022 Amid Fiscal Tightening