Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week -0,5% lower EU CO2 Price to the moon The price of carbon in the EU’s emissions trading system hit a new all-time high on Friday.</li><li>The key reason for the rise was the surge in gas contracts for delivery next year.</li><li>That is making it more likely that increased burning of coal for power generation as an alternative to gas is more than a short-term blip to get the EU through a difficult winter.</li></ul>

The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week -0,5% lower EU CO2 Price to the moon The price of carbon in the EU’s emissions trading system hit a new all-time high on Friday.The key reason for the rise was the surge in gas contracts for delivery next year.That is making it more likely that increased burning of coal for power generation as an alternative to gas is more than a short-term blip to get the EU through a difficult winter.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Consumer Discretionary Select / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe that the bear market lows have already been established.</li>
<li>It remains to be seen whether the indexes will experience a meaningful pullback first, or whether we are already experiencing the initial leg of a new bull market.</li>
<li>Thus far, market indexes have ignored overbought conditions, which is historically a sign of strength during the initial leg of new bull markets.</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe that the bear market lows have already been established.
It remains to be seen whether the indexes will experience a meaningful pullback first, or whether we are already experiencing the initial leg of a new bull market.
Thus far, market indexes have ignored overbought conditions, which is historically a sign of strength during the initial leg of new bull markets.


Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight, Downgrading Energy & Health Care to Market Weight

<ul><li>Here is what is structurally wrong in the way leaders/politicians and people in general talk about the green transition, about fossil fuels, oil, gas and metals. A cyclical commodity bull market.</li><li>I'm in favor of combating man-made climate change and replacing most fossil fuels with renewables in the long term, but the way we are currently going about it is not realistic and will end badly for society and also in high commodity prices and much higher cost of living.</li><li>Why is that the case? Everyone wants renewable energy but no one wants to invest in the raw materials needed to build the EVs, the power lines, or the battery capacity. Due to political pressure, the financial world has had to jump on the #ESG bandwagon.</li></ul>

Here is what is structurally wrong in the way leaders/politicians and people in general talk about the green transition, about fossil fuels, oil, gas and metals. A cyclical commodity bull market.I'm in favor of combating man-made climate change and replacing most fossil fuels with renewables in the long term, but the way we are currently going about it is not realistic and will end badly for society and also in high commodity prices and much higher cost of living.Why is that the case? Everyone wants renewable energy but no one wants to invest in the raw materials needed to build the EVs, the power lines, or the battery capacity. Due to political pressure, the financial world has had to jump on the #ESG bandwagon.

<ul>
<li>The weight of the evidence suggests that the lows for this bear market have likely already been established, but that does not mean it will be smooth sailing from here.</li>
<li>The SPX and NDX are both testing important resistance levels (4165-4180 and the YTD downtrend, respectively), making this a logical spot for the indexes to stall and potentially pull back.</li>
<li>Ultimately, we would expect to see support near their 50-day MAs as the market goes through a bottoming process. We remain neutral overall.</li>
</ul>


The weight of the evidence suggests that the lows for this bear market have likely already been established, but that does not mean it will be smooth sailing from here.
The SPX and NDX are both testing important resistance levels (4165-4180 and the YTD downtrend, respectively), making this a logical spot for the indexes to stall and potentially pull back.
Ultimately, we would expect to see support near their 50-day MAs as the market goes through a bottoming process. We remain neutral overall.


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Key Resistance Levels; Pause Likely; Buying Biotech

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>US Treasuries may still be on the way up [in price]</li>
<li>The most interesting development is the fall in the Oil price as WTI takes out key levels</li>
<li>The price action on yields is so far no different to a month ago from where yields started to fall again after a strong NFP number. Equities may also benefit</li>
</ul>


US Treasuries may still be on the way up [in price]
The most interesting development is the fall in the Oil price as WTI takes out key levels
The price action on yields is so far no different to a month ago from where yields started to fall again after a strong NFP number. Equities may also benefit


United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

The Commodity Report #65

The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week -0,5% lower EU CO2 Price to the moon The price of carbon in the EU’s emissions trading system...

The Commodity Report

Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight, Downgrading Energy & Health Care to Market Weight

Upgrading Discretionary $XLY to Overweight, Downgrading Energy $XLE & Health Care $XLV to Market Weight; Many indexes with major bullish...

Vermilion Research

The Commodity Report #64

Here is what is structurally wrong in the way leaders/politicians and people in general talk about the green transition, about fossil fuels, oil,...

The Commodity Report

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Key Resistance Levels; Pause Likely; Buying Biotech

$SPX is testing important resistance in the 4165-4180 area, the same resistance level we were monitoring in early June before the market tumbled 13...

Vermilion Research

US Treasuries & Post NFP Thoughts

The fall in the Oil price is arguably more important than the NFP numbers. Should it continue, a move down on US 10 year yields would not be...

Shyam Devani

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