Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

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Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>US headline inflation disappointed. But the underlying CPI data is less concerning than the headline inflation rate suggests.</li>
<li>This means another Fed rate hike is now de facto dependent on oil prices and Saudi Arabia. Not where you want to be as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.</li>
<li>Historically, stocks perform well following a peak in inflation, but historical performance has been entirely priced in with a return of almost 18% since last year’s peak. </li>
</ul>


US headline inflation disappointed. But the underlying CPI data is less concerning than the headline inflation rate suggests.
This means another Fed rate hike is now de facto dependent on oil prices and Saudi Arabia. Not where you want to be as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Historically, stocks perform well following a peak in inflation, but historical performance has been entirely priced in with a return of almost 18% since last year’s peak. 


Saudi Arabia Is Now in Charge of the Federal Reserve

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Energy is the main culprit behind the reacceleration but it is also starting to spill-over the various broader goods categories.</li>
<li>The cyclical inflation pressure is back in the US before the inflation reaches its target.</li>
<li>It will be tricky for the Fed to get CPI/PCE back to 2% with these cyclical trends.</li>
</ul>


Energy is the main culprit behind the reacceleration but it is also starting to spill-over the various broader goods categories.
The cyclical inflation pressure is back in the US before the inflation reaches its target.
It will be tricky for the Fed to get CPI/PCE back to 2% with these cyclical trends.


PPI Nugget: New Pressures On Producer Prices To Come?

<ul><li>What a report that just dumped in our inbox.</li><li>Both core and headline surprise on the upside of expectations MoM, with headline increasing from 3.2% YoY to 3.7%, while core comes in at 4.3% YoY vs 4.7% previously – the era of rising headline inflation and falling core inflation is here.</li><li>The change is mostly driven by a HUUGE rebound in Energy inflation, coming in at 5.58% MoM vs 0.11% in July, with Gasoline prices up 10.5% since last month.</li></ul>

What a report that just dumped in our inbox.Both core and headline surprise on the upside of expectations MoM, with headline increasing from 3.2% YoY to 3.7%, while core comes in at 4.3% YoY vs 4.7% previously – the era of rising headline inflation and falling core inflation is here.The change is mostly driven by a HUUGE rebound in Energy inflation, coming in at 5.58% MoM vs 0.11% in July, with Gasoline prices up 10.5% since last month.

US CPI Review – 10% increase in Energy Inflation!

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Welcome back to the Energy Cable, where we always try to be concise and concrete about what’s going on in the energy space.</li>
<li>The last couple of weeks have presented us with what might be a new energy bull run, as markets liked the message from the Saudis amidst a global economy that is in far better shape than feared.</li>
<li>So how’s the outlook?</li>
</ul>


Welcome back to the Energy Cable, where we always try to be concise and concrete about what’s going on in the energy space.
The last couple of weeks have presented us with what might be a new energy bull run, as markets liked the message from the Saudis amidst a global economy that is in far better shape than feared.
So how’s the outlook?


The Energy Cable #37 – The good old fossil fuels are back in business

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Welcome to our inflation watch ahead of the all-important US CPI report on Wednesday.</li><li>Before showing our charts and models, we’d like to present you with our key take-aways up front</li><li>Headline/energy inflation will continue to accelerate and likely to a higher degree than priced in </li></ul>

Welcome to our inflation watch ahead of the all-important US CPI report on Wednesday.Before showing our charts and models, we’d like to present you with our key take-aways up frontHeadline/energy inflation will continue to accelerate and likely to a higher degree than priced in 

Inflation Watch: A bottom above 2%? 10 charts on USD inflation

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Saudi Arabia Is Now in Charge of the Federal Reserve

Whether the Fed hikes again largely depends on Saudi Arabia and oil and energy prices, all outside Powell's span of control.

Jeroen Blokland

PPI Nugget: New Pressures On Producer Prices To Come?

Energy is the main culprit behind the reacceleration but it is also starting to spill-over the various broader goods categories. The cyclical...

Steno Research

US CPI Review – 10% increase in Energy Inflation!

What a report that just dumped in our inbox. Both core and headline surprise on the upside of expectations MoM, with headline increasing from 3.2%...

Steno Research

The Energy Cable #37 – The good old fossil fuels are back in business

Welcome back to the Energy Cable, where we always try to be concise and concrete about what’s going on in the energy space. The...

Steno Research

Inflation Watch: A bottom above 2%? 10 charts on USD inflation

Welcome to our inflation watch ahead of the all-important US CPI report on Wednesday. Before showing our charts and models, we’d like to present...

Steno Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)