Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Key supports are currently being tested at 3900-3910 on the S&amp;P 500, $293 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $177-178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>We see a bounce as possible at these levels, but breaks below these levels would virtually guarantee a test of the YTD lows -- or worse.</li>
<li>WTI crude oil is breaking below the critical $85 support level, confirming a major top in place. The Bloomberg commodity index needs to break $32.50 to confirm a major top.</li>
</ul>


Key supports are currently being tested at 3900-3910 on the S&amp;P 500, $293 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $177-178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
We see a bounce as possible at these levels, but breaks below these levels would virtually guarantee a test of the YTD lows -- or worse.
WTI crude oil is breaking below the critical $85 support level, confirming a major top in place. The Bloomberg commodity index needs to break $32.50 to confirm a major top.


S&P 500 Testing 3900 Support; Commodities, WTI Crude Oil Topping?; Buying Uranium, Ag Equipment

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>Gold short met 1,730 PT to close and now kissing key support at 1,700 as the long pivot level. WTI's nasty give back needs basing at the key 85/86 support.</li>
<li>Gold 1,700 and WTI 85 are make or break bull/bear lines. Gold RSI bull divergence stands out as the driver amid risk aversion and a safe have bid in bonds.</li>
<li>WTI RSI uber bull divergence shows good energy to retake 93 but is it enough to offset demand destruction/Sept risk. Reserve levels are low and support the bull case.</li>
</ul>


Gold short met 1,730 PT to close and now kissing key support at 1,700 as the long pivot level. WTI's nasty give back needs basing at the key 85/86 support.
Gold 1,700 and WTI 85 are make or break bull/bear lines. Gold RSI bull divergence stands out as the driver amid risk aversion and a safe have bid in bonds.
WTI RSI uber bull divergence shows good energy to retake 93 but is it enough to offset demand destruction/Sept risk. Reserve levels are low and support the bull case.


<ul>
<li>In last week's Compass (Aug. 23) we discussed the increasing odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.</li>
<li>This was due to 5-week uptrend breaks on the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000, the Fed tightening, and with Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar (DXY), and commodities (DJP) inflecting higher.</li>
<li>The market remains in pullback mode; the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000 are all approaching 50-day MA support, the first big area of interest on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Compass (Aug. 23) we discussed the increasing odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.
This was due to 5-week uptrend breaks on the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000, the Fed tightening, and with Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar (DXY), and commodities (DJP) inflecting higher.
The market remains in pullback mode; the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000 are all approaching 50-day MA support, the first big area of interest on this pullback.


Headwinds Persist, Including Rising DXY, 10-Yr Treasury Yield, & Commodities; Buying Staples, Solar

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 2,4% higher</li><li>While natural gas made a higher high, the fertilizer complex remained in a sideways market for some time.</li><li>Last week fertilizer prices saw an awakening, as especially European natgas prices rallied further. US Gulf Urea futures jumped 20% while Middle East Urea futures jumped 18% w/w.</li></ul>

The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 2,4% higherWhile natural gas made a higher high, the fertilizer complex remained in a sideways market for some time.Last week fertilizer prices saw an awakening, as especially European natgas prices rallied further. US Gulf Urea futures jumped 20% while Middle East Urea futures jumped 18% w/w.

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (Aug. 18) we discussed that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but that the real test will come during the eventual pullback.</li>
<li>We are getting the pullback now, but so far, there has yet to be any failed breakouts among the indexes discussed over the past month -- a positive sign.</li>
<li>Worth noting- <em>further</em> breakout attempts have failed on some of the leading market indexes, notably the Nasdaq 100 and India's SENSEX, but they remain well-above their breakout levels from July.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (Aug. 18) we discussed that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but that the real test will come during the eventual pullback.
We are getting the pullback now, but so far, there has yet to be any failed breakouts among the indexes discussed over the past month -- a positive sign.
Worth noting- further breakout attempts have failed on some of the leading market indexes, notably the Nasdaq 100 and India's SENSEX, but they remain well-above their breakout levels from July.


Pullback Underway; Buy Ideas: Energy, Materials, Japan/India Motor Vehicles, Japan Health Care

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

S&P 500 Testing 3900 Support; Commodities, WTI Crude Oil Topping?; Buying Uranium, Ag Equipment

Key supports are currently being tested at 3900-3910 on $SPX, $293 on the $QQQ $NDX, and $177-178 on the $IWM. WTI crude oil is breaking below $85;...

Vermilion Research

Gold Bull/Bear Line and Oil Base Mend

Gold short met PT and now kissing 1,700 long support. WTI's nasty give back needs basing at the key 85/86 support. Is WTI RSI bull divergence...

Thomas Schroeder

Headwinds Persist, Including Rising DXY, 10-Yr Treasury Yield, & Commodities; Buying Staples, Solar

We still see the market as being in pullback mode; the $SPX, $QQQ $NDX, and $IWM $RUT are all testing 50-day MA support, the first big area of...

Vermilion Research

The Commodity Report #66

Last week fertilizer prices saw an awakening, as especially European natgas prices rallied further. US Gulf Urea futures jumped 20% while Middle...

The Commodity Report

Pullback Underway; Buy Ideas: Energy, Materials, Japan/India Motor Vehicles, Japan Health Care

Pullback Underway; Problem: U.S. Dollar $DXY, Global 10-Yr Sovereign Yields, and Commodities All on the Rise Again; Actionable Themes: Energy,...

Vermilion Research

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