Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The EIA report moved oil markets markedly yesterday and the sell-off has continued today.</li><li>If the EIA report is indeed a true reflection of the slide in the retail gasoline demand, it may shave off &gt;1mn barrels a day in global demand for oil.</li><li>The BIG issue for the EIA report is that it is 100% out of sync with high frequent transportation data, so what do we make of it here?</li></ul>

The EIA report moved oil markets markedly yesterday and the sell-off has continued today.If the EIA report is indeed a true reflection of the slide in the retail gasoline demand, it may shave off &gt;1mn barrels a day in global demand for oil.The BIG issue for the EIA report is that it is 100% out of sync with high frequent transportation data, so what do we make of it here?

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul>
<li>This week’s standout story has undeniably been the startling EIA report from the US.</li>
<li>Unless we receive a substantial revision or information that undermines the bleak picture -the unfortunate reality is probably that US consumers are, regrettably, capitulating.</li>
<li>If this proves to be true, it aligns with the somewhat disheartening credit card spending data from BofA, as well as the diminishing excess savings and eroding real disposable incomes</li>
</ul>


This week’s standout story has undeniably been the startling EIA report from the US.
Unless we receive a substantial revision or information that undermines the bleak picture -the unfortunate reality is probably that US consumers are, regrettably, capitulating.
If this proves to be true, it aligns with the somewhat disheartening credit card spending data from BofA, as well as the diminishing excess savings and eroding real disposable incomes


Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>This week, we show why the economy is in the final innings of this economic cycle. The only macro-indicator that stubbornly refuses to acknowledge this is the US labor market. </li>
<li>Real yields are bad for Equities and good for Bonds, but gold is the unlikely asset class that really thrives when real rates spike above 2%. </li>
<li>We update our scary valuation chart, revealing a monstrous gap between yields and stock market valuation, and look at Bitcoin positioning, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index, and much more.</li>
</ul>


This week, we show why the economy is in the final innings of this economic cycle. The only macro-indicator that stubbornly refuses to acknowledge this is the US labor market. 
Real yields are bad for Equities and good for Bonds, but gold is the unlikely asset class that really thrives when real rates spike above 2%. 
We update our scary valuation chart, revealing a monstrous gap between yields and stock market valuation, and look at Bitcoin positioning, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index, and much more.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Real Rates = Growth Scare?

<ul><li>Every month, we present our best evaluation of the present and approaching month’s macroeconomic conditions, balancing risks and rewards.</li><li>We put to use our Macro Regime Indicator framework, alongside the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model, to carry out this analysis.</li><li>Coming into September, we wrote that: “Looking ahead, we do not expect sudden shocks or changes to the current conditions.</li></ul>

Every month, we present our best evaluation of the present and approaching month’s macroeconomic conditions, balancing risks and rewards.We put to use our Macro Regime Indicator framework, alongside the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model, to carry out this analysis.Coming into September, we wrote that: “Looking ahead, we do not expect sudden shocks or changes to the current conditions.

Macro Regime Model: Inflation down while growth is on the up?

<ul><li>It is no secret that we turned energy bullish early in the summer with pretty accurate timing and made a nice run based on being ahead of the crowd on the call.</li><li>We have kept various energy proxies alive in our portfolio and were stopped out of our Refiners spread earlier today due to a material sell-off on the back of the weekly EIA report.</li><li>The EIA report is usually not a &gt;1-2 sigma market mover, but oh boy it moved markets today and we find very good reasons why when assessing the data.</li></ul>

It is no secret that we turned energy bullish early in the summer with pretty accurate timing and made a nice run based on being ahead of the crowd on the call.We have kept various energy proxies alive in our portfolio and were stopped out of our Refiners spread earlier today due to a material sell-off on the back of the weekly EIA report.The EIA report is usually not a &gt;1-2 sigma market mover, but oh boy it moved markets today and we find very good reasons why when assessing the data.

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Oil Watch: The EIA plot thickens

Good Evening from Europe!The EIA report moved oil markets markedly yesterday and the sell-off has continued today. If the EIA report is indeed a...

Steno Research

EM by EM #24 Tightening the noose on EM

This week’s standout story has undeniably been the startling EIA report from the US. Unless we receive a substantial revision or information that...

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Real Rates = Growth Scare?

Defaults are rising, gasoline demand is falling out of bed, and price pressures reside despite spiking energy prices. Is the growth slump finally...

Jeroen Blokland

Macro Regime Model: Inflation down while growth is on the up?

Every month, we present our best evaluation of the present and approaching month’s macroeconomic conditions, balancing risks and rewards. We put...

Steno Research

Oil Watch: OUCH!

It is no secret that we turned energy bullish early in the summer with pretty accurate timing and made a nice run based on being ahead of the...

Steno Research

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