External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Pakistan’s CPI Inflation jumped to 31.4% YoY in Sep-2023, breaking a three-months of YoY declining trend. The significant hike in inflation is due to higher local fuel and food prices.</li><li>On MoM basis, CPI inflation was up 2.0% in Sep 2023 as compared to 1.7% in Aug 2023 and last 3-month average of 1.6%.</li><li>This takes 1QFY24 average inflation to 29.04% compared to 25.11% in 1QFY23.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan’s CPI Inflation jumped to 31.4% YoY in Sep-2023, breaking a three-months of YoY declining trend. The significant hike in inflation is due to higher local fuel and food prices.On MoM basis, CPI inflation was up 2.0% in Sep 2023 as compared to 1.7% in Aug 2023 and last 3-month average of 1.6%.This takes 1QFY24 average inflation to 29.04% compared to 25.11% in 1QFY23.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan Economy - Inflation up 31% YoY in Sep-2023 as Expected

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>It’s once again time for us to give our weekly take on energy markets, as well as where to place your chips in the time to come.</li><li>The crude bull-case is seemingly running on fumes, but while Warren’s models are back on neutral, Andreas’ oil model is still signaling bullish price action for some time to come, and Steno Research’s gas model is now back in bullish territory, for those who want to stay in the energy-trade.</li><li>Cracks are forming in the oil market. More specifically, cracks spreads are plunging. Below, we plot the front month 3-2-1 crack spread traded on the NYMEX.</li></ul>

It’s once again time for us to give our weekly take on energy markets, as well as where to place your chips in the time to come.The crude bull-case is seemingly running on fumes, but while Warren’s models are back on neutral, Andreas’ oil model is still signaling bullish price action for some time to come, and Steno Research’s gas model is now back in bullish territory, for those who want to stay in the energy-trade.Cracks are forming in the oil market. More specifically, cracks spreads are plunging. Below, we plot the front month 3-2-1 crack spread traded on the NYMEX.

The Energy Cable #40 – Time to follow crack spreads!

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>There are good reasons to chant “Europe, Europe, Europe” on the golf course, but not in financial markets as Europe is once again tested by commodity developments.</li>
<li>
Oil markets remain in the driver’s seat of everything in Global Macro and even if it already feels like this energy squeeze is old hat, we find a continued strong risk/reward in betting on higher energy prices.
</li>
<li>
Our “chart of the week” reveals that the paper-market volume behind this latest oil market rally is very low, leaving the fear of a stretched positioning relatively dampened, which will allow the undersupplied physical market to drive price action.
</li>
</ul>


There are good reasons to chant “Europe, Europe, Europe” on the golf course, but not in financial markets as Europe is once again tested by commodity developments.

Oil markets remain in the driver’s seat of everything in Global Macro and even if it already feels like this energy squeeze is old hat, we find a continued strong risk/reward in betting on higher energy prices.


Our “chart of the week” reveals that the paper-market volume behind this latest oil market rally is very low, leaving the fear of a stretched positioning relatively dampened, which will allow the undersupplied physical market to drive price action.



Steno Signals #67 – 150bps Higher 10yr Yields and Parity up Next in EURUSD?

<ul>
<li>Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we run through interest positioning insights/data collected throughout the week.</li>
<li>It’s safe to say that energy is all everyone is talking about with the oil rally still going strong, but the trade might have more to give as positioning is not as exhausted as some people might tell you.</li>
<li>When you take into account the number of traders in the CFTC report, oil positioning is barely anything compared to history.</li>
</ul>


Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we run through interest positioning insights/data collected throughout the week.
It’s safe to say that energy is all everyone is talking about with the oil rally still going strong, but the trade might have more to give as positioning is not as exhausted as some people might tell you.
When you take into account the number of traders in the CFTC report, oil positioning is barely anything compared to history.


Positioning Watch – Oil Longs Are Not as Big as You Think

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Inflation Came down fast across Europe, yet bond yields continued to rally. We think markets are wrong on yields even though Italy and France have zero appetite to sustainably lower their budget deficits.</li>
<li>We discuss falling consumer sentiment and the increasing parallel between current macro-consumer conditions and Q4 2018 when retail sales tumbled. Are we in for a rerun? </li>
<li>Though not the mother of all stock market indices, several indices have dropped below their 200-day moving average, while the equally weighted S&amp;P 500 Index has reversed all of this year’s gains. </li>
</ul>


Inflation Came down fast across Europe, yet bond yields continued to rally. We think markets are wrong on yields even though Italy and France have zero appetite to sustainably lower their budget deficits.
We discuss falling consumer sentiment and the increasing parallel between current macro-consumer conditions and Q4 2018 when retail sales tumbled. Are we in for a rerun? 
Though not the mother of all stock market indices, several indices have dropped below their 200-day moving average, while the equally weighted S&amp;P 500 Index has reversed all of this year’s gains. 


The Weekly Market Monitor – Immaculate Disinflation, Spiking Yields, and the Waiting Continues

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Pakistan Economy - Inflation up 31% YoY in Sep-2023 as Expected

Pakistan’s CPI Inflation jumped to 31.4% YoY in Sep-2023, breaking a three-months of YoY declining trend. The significant hike in inflation is due...

Topline Securities

The Energy Cable #40 – Time to follow crack spreads!

It’s once again time for us to give our weekly take on energy markets, as well as where to place your chips in the time to come. The crude...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #67 – 150bps Higher 10yr Yields and Parity up Next in EURUSD?

There are good reasons to chant “Europe, Europe, Europe” on the golf course, but not in financial markets as Europe is once again tested by...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Oil Longs Are Not as Big as You Think

Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we run through interest positioning insights/data collected throughout the week.

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Immaculate Disinflation, Spiking Yields, and the Waiting Continues

Inflation is collapsing and even turned negative in the Netherlands. Yet, bond yields continue to spike, providing ample downside risk for equities.

Jeroen Blokland

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