Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe revenue will increase by 8% YoY in 1Q25, as most business lines have been growing.</li>
<li>We believe the operating margin will be stable, as cost cut plans came to an end.</li>
<li>We set an upside of 94% for March 2025, as we believe the stock is overly impacted.</li>
</ul>


We believe revenue will increase by 8% YoY in 1Q25, as most business lines have been growing.
We believe the operating margin will be stable, as cost cut plans came to an end.
We set an upside of 94% for March 2025, as we believe the stock is overly impacted.


Alibaba (BABA US): 1Q25 Preview, Stable Growth and Margin, But Overly Impacted

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>Low volatility investing has taken the mantle from Dividend yield as the top strategy during July</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics (285 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> are rated BUYs as their businesses show improvement.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingdee-international-sftwr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37:1" rel="noopener">Kingdee International Software (268 HK)</a> is seeing a softening in its SME business, however there is  potential to gain market share from foreign ERP companies given the pledged government's policies.
</li>
</ul>


Low volatility investing has taken the mantle from Dividend yield as the top strategy during July
BYD Electronics (285 HK) and Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) are rated BUYs as their businesses show improvement.  

Kingdee International Software (268 HK) is seeing a softening in its SME business, however there is  potential to gain market share from foreign ERP companies given the pledged government's policies.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (July 29)

<ul>
<li>Xiaomi’s shipments increased by double digits, but Apple’s shipments decreased in China in 2Q24.</li>
<li>Alibaba’s Taobao and Tmall platforms have waived the AliPay fee for retailers.</li>
<li>Amazon will open a store on JD.com next Black Friday.</li>
</ul>


Xiaomi’s shipments increased by double digits, but Apple’s shipments decreased in China in 2Q24.
Alibaba’s Taobao and Tmall platforms have waived the AliPay fee for retailers.
Amazon will open a store on JD.com next Black Friday.


China Consumption Weekly (29Jul2024): Xiaomi, Apple, Alibaba, Amazon, JD.com, East Buy

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Early 6/18 pulled June sales into May, leading to disappointing June NBS data. Combined, online retail grew 5.1% yoy in May/June, and 6.4% yoy in 2Q24. </li>
<li>PDD remained the top shelf-ecommerce platform with GMV growing ~20%, followed by Taobao/Tmall (TTG) at ~6-7%, and JD and VIPS at ~2-3% yoy. </li>
<li>We expect JD and BABA to report slight earnings beats and guide upbeat on continued profitability improvement in 2H24. </li>
</ul>


Early 6/18 pulled June sales into May, leading to disappointing June NBS data. Combined, online retail grew 5.1% yoy in May/June, and 6.4% yoy in 2Q24. 
PDD remained the top shelf-ecommerce platform with GMV growing ~20%, followed by Taobao/Tmall (TTG) at ~6-7%, and JD and VIPS at ~2-3% yoy. 
We expect JD and BABA to report slight earnings beats and guide upbeat on continued profitability improvement in 2H24. 


[Blue Lotus E-Commerce Sector Update]: Tax Reform a Light at the End of the Tunnel for Ecommerce

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.</li>
<li>Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.</li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) , S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.
Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.


EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

Price Gauge
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Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)

Alibaba (BABA US): 1Q25 Preview, Stable Growth and Margin, But Overly Impacted

We believe revenue will increase by 8% YoY in 1Q25, as most business lines have been growing. We believe the operating margin will be stable, as...

Ming Lu

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (July 29)

Low volatility investing is performing well in July. BYD Electronics has seen better Apple related and NEV sales and Alibaba is increasing some...

David Mudd

China Consumption Weekly (29Jul2024): Xiaomi, Apple, Alibaba, Amazon, JD.com, East Buy

Xiaomi’s shipments increased by two digits, but Apple’s shipments decreased in China in 2Q24. Alibaba have waived the AliPay fee for retailers....

Ming Lu

[Blue Lotus E-Commerce Sector Update]: Tax Reform a Light at the End of the Tunnel for Ecommerce

June sales pulled into May led to disappointing June NBS data. Online retail grew 5.1% yoy in May/June and 6.4% yoy in 2Q24. PDD led in GMV...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Alibaba (BABA US): 1Q25 Preview, Stable Growth and Margin, But Overly Impacted

We believe revenue will increase by 8% YoY in 1Q25, as most business lines have been growing. We believe the operating margin will be stable, as...

Ming Lu

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (July 29)

Low volatility investing is performing well in July. BYD Electronics has seen better Apple related and NEV sales and Alibaba is increasing some...

David Mudd

China Consumption Weekly (29Jul2024): Xiaomi, Apple, Alibaba, Amazon, JD.com, East Buy

Xiaomi’s shipments increased by two digits, but Apple’s shipments decreased in China in 2Q24. Alibaba have waived the AliPay fee for retailers....

Ming Lu

[Blue Lotus E-Commerce Sector Update]: Tax Reform a Light at the End of the Tunnel for Ecommerce

​June sales pulled into May led to disappointing June NBS data. Online retail grew 5.1% yoy in May/June and 6.4% yoy in 2Q24. PDD led in GMV...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

​Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

June sales pulled into May led to disappointing June NBS data. Online retail grew 5.1% yoy in May/June and 6.4% yoy in 2Q24. PDD led in GMV...

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...