Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Alibaba reported a largely in-line December quarter as lower take rate and widened loss from international commerce businesses resulted in pressured bottom line.</li>
<li>The results also suggest a persisting pattern of China consumers trading down, which - along with the company’s ongoing internal overhaul – will continue to be headwind in 1H24.</li>
<li>That said, we see increase of US$25 billion share repurchase program and dividend policy to well support share price at current valuation. </li>
</ul>


Alibaba reported a largely in-line December quarter as lower take rate and widened loss from international commerce businesses resulted in pressured bottom line.
The results also suggest a persisting pattern of China consumers trading down, which - along with the company’s ongoing internal overhaul – will continue to be headwind in 1H24.
That said, we see increase of US$25 billion share repurchase program and dividend policy to well support share price at current valuation. 


Alibaba (BABA US): Upzised Share Repurchase to Support Share Price

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Alibaba reported 3QFY24 (March year-end) results: total revenue was RMB260.3bn, up 5% YoY, and non-GAAP net income for the quarter was RMB48.2bn, down 4% YoY, both largely inline with Bloomberg consensus.</li><li>Management remains committed to investment to drive top-line growth and market share gains for core businesses, as well as to continued loss reduction and exit of non-core business when market conditions improve.</li><li>Although business transition will likely take time, with an upsizing of the share repurchase program to US$35.3bn and guidance of at least 3% in annual reduction of total shares outstanding through Mar 2027, management’s determination in enhancing shareholder return remains firm. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Alibaba reported 3QFY24 (March year-end) results: total revenue was RMB260.3bn, up 5% YoY, and non-GAAP net income for the quarter was RMB48.2bn, down 4% YoY, both largely inline with Bloomberg consensus.Management remains committed to investment to drive top-line growth and market share gains for core businesses, as well as to continued loss reduction and exit of non-core business when market conditions improve.Although business transition will likely take time, with an upsizing of the share repurchase program to US$35.3bn and guidance of at least 3% in annual reduction of total shares outstanding through Mar 2027, management’s determination in enhancing shareholder return remains firm. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Alibaba (BABA US) - Enhancing Shareholder Return While Remaining Ambitious

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Alibaba’s revenue grew by 5% YoY and its operating margin improved by 2 percentage points YoY in 3Q24.</li>
<li>We believe the company turned its focus from margin improvement to revenue growth.</li>
<li>We set the upside at 20% and the price target at HK$90 for March 2025. Buy.</li>
</ul>


Alibaba’s revenue grew by 5% YoY and its operating margin improved by 2 percentage points YoY in 3Q24.
We believe the company turned its focus from margin improvement to revenue growth.
We set the upside at 20% and the price target at HK$90 for March 2025. Buy.


Alibaba (9988 HK): 3Q24, Unimpressive as Expected, But Turning Focus from Margin to Growth

<ul>
<li>Alibaba Changed its Tmall Taobao business unit from three centers to six departments.</li>
<li>We believe the change means Alibaba is moving its focus from cost cut to revenue growth.</li>
<li>We set the stock upside at 26% and the price target at HK$91. Buy.</li>
</ul>


Alibaba Changed its Tmall Taobao business unit from three centers to six departments.
We believe the change means Alibaba is moving its focus from cost cut to revenue growth.
We set the stock upside at 26% and the price target at HK$91. Buy.


Alibaba (9988 HK) 3Q24 Earnings Preview: Could Be Unimpressive, But Just Reorganized Main Business

<ul>
<li>Great Wall Motor’s revenue increased by 26%, but its profit increased by less than 5% in 2023.</li>
<li>Huawei’s shipments increased 36% YoY in 4Q23 and was the only company to witness an increase among the top five sellers.</li>
<li>Jack Ma, the founder, and Mr. Joe Tsai, the chairman, purchased Alibaba’s shares.</li>
</ul>


Great Wall Motor’s revenue increased by 26%, but its profit increased by less than 5% in 2023.
Huawei’s shipments increased 36% YoY in 4Q23 and was the only company to witness an increase among the top five sellers.
Jack Ma, the founder, and Mr. Joe Tsai, the chairman, purchased Alibaba’s shares.


China Consumption Weekly (29 Jan 2024): Great Wall Motor, Huawei, Alibaba, Mixue, Nayuki

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)

Alibaba (BABA US) - Enhancing Shareholder Return While Remaining Ambitious

Alibaba reported 3QFY24 (March year-end) results: total revenue was RMB260.3bn, up 5% YoY, and non-GAAP net income for the quarter was RMB48.2bn,...

CMB International

Alibaba (9988 HK): 3Q24, Unimpressive as Expected, But Turning Focus from Margin to Growth

Alibaba’s revenue grew by 5% YoY, but its operating margin improved by 2 percentage points in 3Q24. We believe the company turned its focus from...

Ming Lu

Alibaba (9988 HK) 3Q24 Earnings Preview: Could Be Unimpressive, But Just Reorganized Main Business

Alibaba Changed its Tmall Taobao business unit from three centers to six departments. We believe the change means Alibaba is moving its focus from...

Ming Lu

China Consumption Weekly (29 Jan 2024): Great Wall Motor, Huawei, Alibaba, Mixue, Nayuki

Great Wall Motor’s revenue increased by 26%, but its profit increased by less than 5% in 2023. Huawei shipment increased by 36% YoY in 4Q23. The...

Ming Lu

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Alibaba (BABA US): Upzised Share Repurchase to Support Share Price

While deflationary pressure continues to be headwind for Alibaba in the near term, we expect upsized share repurchase program and dividend policy...

Eric Chen

Alibaba (BABA US) - Enhancing Shareholder Return While Remaining Ambitious

Alibaba reported 3QFY24 (March year-end) results: total revenue was RMB260.3bn, up 5% YoY, and non-GAAP net income for the quarter was RMB48.2bn,...

CMB International

Alibaba (9988 HK): 3Q24, Unimpressive as Expected, But Turning Focus from Margin to Growth

Alibaba’s revenue grew by 5% YoY, but its operating margin improved by 2 percentage points in 3Q24. We believe the company turned its focus from...

Ming Lu

Alibaba (9988 HK) 3Q24 Earnings Preview: Could Be Unimpressive, But Just Reorganized Main Business

Alibaba Changed its Tmall Taobao business unit from three centers to six departments. We believe the change means Alibaba is moving its focus from...

Ming Lu

China Consumption Weekly (29 Jan 2024): Great Wall Motor, Huawei, Alibaba, Mixue, Nayuki

Great Wall Motor’s revenue increased by 26%, but its profit increased by less than 5% in 2023. Huawei shipment increased by 36% YoY in 4Q23. The...

Ming Lu