China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$100) TP Change]: On Track for the Great Turnaround…Reiterate BUY

[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$85) Review]: Positive Transformation Still Underway…BUY on Dip

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Early 6/18 pulled June sales into May, leading to disappointing June NBS data. Combined, online retail grew 5.1% yoy in May/June, and 6.4% yoy in 2Q24. </li>
<li>PDD remained the top shelf-ecommerce platform with GMV growing ~20%, followed by Taobao/Tmall (TTG) at ~6-7%, and JD and VIPS at ~2-3% yoy. </li>
<li>We expect JD and BABA to report slight earnings beats and guide upbeat on continued profitability improvement in 2H24. </li>
</ul>


Early 6/18 pulled June sales into May, leading to disappointing June NBS data. Combined, online retail grew 5.1% yoy in May/June, and 6.4% yoy in 2Q24. 
PDD remained the top shelf-ecommerce platform with GMV growing ~20%, followed by Taobao/Tmall (TTG) at ~6-7%, and JD and VIPS at ~2-3% yoy. 
We expect JD and BABA to report slight earnings beats and guide upbeat on continued profitability improvement in 2H24. 


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