Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

A veteran with 19-year experience in equity research.

Geographical coverage:
* Companies operating in China, but listed in Hong Kong and the U.S.
* Previously China A-share (listed in mainland China).

Equity sector coverage:
* Chinese App / Internet-based consumption in China, e.g., Alibaba, Tencent, etc.
* Previously covered education, transportation, telecom, power, bank, advertisement, hotel, etc.

Research methods:
* Generally bottom-up.
* Talk to related people on the ground.  Talk to readers and independent writers for analyzing a news portal.  Talk to parents and teachers for analyzing a tutoring school. 
* Visit stores and show photos as evidence in notes.
* Do technical analysis when finding a short-seller attacking an equity.

Languages:
* English
* Mandarin Chinese (Official language of China)
* Shanghainese (Language of Shanghai, the most developed city in China)
* Cantonese (Language of Hong Kong and Canton Province, one of the most developed provinces in China)

Overseas Chinese Equities

Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA): 1Q25, Growth Lower Than Expectation, But Many Expansion Plans Following

China Consumption Weekly (26Aug2024): 2Q24 Rev Up By - PopMart 62%, Zeekr 58%, Tongcheng 48%, Etc.

China Consumption Weekly (2 Sep 2024): Alibaba, Huawei, Kuaishou, Li Auto, Haidilao

China Consumption Weekly (29Jul2024): Xiaomi, Apple, Alibaba, Amazon, JD.com, East Buy

Alibaba (9988 HK): 4Q24, Main Business Began to Grow

China Consumption Weekly (3 Jun 2024): Alibaba, Alibaba Pictures, Li Auto, JD.com, JD Health

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe revenue will increase by 8% YoY in 1Q25, as most business lines have been growing.</li>
<li>We believe the operating margin will be stable, as cost cut plans came to an end.</li>
<li>We set an upside of 94% for March 2025, as we believe the stock is overly impacted.</li>
</ul>


We believe revenue will increase by 8% YoY in 1Q25, as most business lines have been growing.
We believe the operating margin will be stable, as cost cut plans came to an end.
We set an upside of 94% for March 2025, as we believe the stock is overly impacted.


Alibaba (BABA US): 1Q25 Preview, Stable Growth and Margin, But Overly Impacted