Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BABA reported CY3Q24 top line, adjusted EBITA and non-GAAP net profit (1.0%), (1.6%) and in-line vs. consensus. </li>
<li>CMR improved amid monetization changes that narrowed the growth gap with GMV, but also eliminated some low-single profit sellers from its GMV. </li>
<li>Cloud and overseas e-commerce revenue also saw good growth and improved profitability. All of BABA’s key businesses are sputtering to life while macro tailwinds are also favorable. </li>
</ul>


BABA reported CY3Q24 top line, adjusted EBITA and non-GAAP net profit (1.0%), (1.6%) and in-line vs. consensus. 
CMR improved amid monetization changes that narrowed the growth gap with GMV, but also eliminated some low-single profit sellers from its GMV. 
Cloud and overseas e-commerce revenue also saw good growth and improved profitability. All of BABA’s key businesses are sputtering to life while macro tailwinds are also favorable. 


[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$120) Earnings Review]: Progress Made, Better Times Ahead

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity still high. Net buying very strong. 7 names traded more than US$1bn. Last week I said tech would continue to be bought. It was.</li>
<li>The trend continues to net sales of ETFs and high div SOEs. Net buying is very, very broad-based. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a> is batted around like crazy.</li>
<li>I expect HK-listed tech to <em>continue</em> getting bought. Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, etc are safe havens against Trump tariffs as they don't compete in the US.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity still high. Net buying very strong. 7 names traded more than US$1bn. Last week I said tech would continue to be bought. It was.
The trend continues to net sales of ETFs and high div SOEs. Net buying is very, very broad-based. Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) is batted around like crazy.
I expect HK-listed tech to continue getting bought. Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, etc are safe havens against Trump tariffs as they don't compete in the US.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Nov 2024); Tech Bought, High-Div SOEs Sold or Ignored, Again

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Total revenue grew slightly as we expected in our preview note.</li>
<li>The operating margin improved significantly, but this was due to the shrinks of non-cash items.</li>
<li>However, we believe Alibaba will benefit from the boycott against JD.com and the disposal of Sun Art.</li>
</ul>


Total revenue grew slightly as we expected in our preview note.
The operating margin improved significantly, but this was due to the shrinks of non-cash items.
However, we believe Alibaba will benefit from the boycott against JD.com and the disposal of Sun Art.


Alibaba (BABA US): 2Q25, Weak Quarter, But Waiting for Two Events to Benefit Top Line

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>Consensus underestimates earnings growth potential of Alibaba in coming years given tangible progress in its internal overhaul and improving China macro backdrop.</li>
<li>The September quarter is likely the end of the company’s earnings slowdown tracing back to 1HFY23, and we expect earnings recovery in FY2H25 will trigger major re-rating. </li>
<li>Fundamental turnaround and gradual bottoming-out of China property market going into 2025 will easily lift Alibaba’s valuation to above 15x P/E. </li>
</ul>


Consensus underestimates earnings growth potential of Alibaba in coming years given tangible progress in its internal overhaul and improving China macro backdrop.
The September quarter is likely the end of the company’s earnings slowdown tracing back to 1HFY23, and we expect earnings recovery in FY2H25 will trigger major re-rating. 
Fundamental turnaround and gradual bottoming-out of China property market going into 2025 will easily lift Alibaba’s valuation to above 15x P/E. 


2025 High Conviction Idea: Alibaba On the Cusp of Major Re-Rating

<ul>
<li>There were many positive events, but we believe most effects will emerge after the September quarter.</li>
<li>We believe total revenue will grow by 6% and the operating margin will be stable for FY 2Q25.</li>
<li>We conclude an upside of 105% and a price target of US$200 for the end of March 2025.</li>
</ul>


There were many positive events, but we believe most effects will emerge after the September quarter.
We believe total revenue will grow by 6% and the operating margin will be stable for FY 2Q25.
We conclude an upside of 105% and a price target of US$200 for the end of March 2025.


Alibaba (BABA US) 2Q25 Earnings Preview: Many Events Happened, But to Boost Later Quarters

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)

[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$120) Earnings Review]: Progress Made, Better Times Ahead

BABA's latest financial report shows improved performance across key businesses, with growth in cloud and overseas e-commerce revenue.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Nov 2024); Tech Bought, High-Div SOEs Sold or Ignored, Again

SOUTHBOUND continues to be a big net buyer of HK stocks. It is possible investors are looking to cheap tech, possible they are looking to buybacks....

Travis Lundy

Alibaba (BABA US): 2Q25, Weak Quarter, But Waiting for Two Events to Benefit Top Line

Total revenue grew slightly and the margin improvement was due to the shrinks of non-cash items. However, we believe Alibaba will benefit from the...

Ming Lu

2025 High Conviction Idea: Alibaba On the Cusp of Major Re-Rating

We expect up to 20% earnings CAGR amidst improving China macro backdrop will easily lift Alibaba's valuation to above 15x P/E by FY26, with the...

Eric Chen

Alibaba (BABA US) 2Q25 Earnings Preview: Many Events Happened, But to Boost Later Quarters

There were many positive events, but we believe most effects will emerge after the September quarter. We believe total revenue will grow by 6% and...

Ming Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$120) Earnings Review]: Progress Made, Better Times Ahead

​BABA's latest financial report shows improved performance across key businesses, with growth in cloud and overseas e-commerce revenue.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Nov 2024); Tech Bought, High-Div SOEs Sold or Ignored, Again

SOUTHBOUND continues to be a big net buyer of HK stocks. It is possible investors are looking to cheap tech, possible they are looking to buybacks....

Travis Lundy

Alibaba (BABA US): 2Q25, Weak Quarter, But Waiting for Two Events to Benefit Top Line

Total revenue grew slightly and the margin improvement was due to the shrinks of non-cash items. However, we believe Alibaba will benefit from the...

Ming Lu

2025 High Conviction Idea: Alibaba On the Cusp of Major Re-Rating

​We expect up to 20% earnings CAGR amidst improving China macro backdrop will easily lift Alibaba's valuation to above 15x P/E by FY26, with the...

Eric Chen

Alibaba (BABA US) 2Q25 Earnings Preview: Many Events Happened, But to Boost Later Quarters

There were many positive events, but we believe most effects will emerge after the September quarter. We believe total revenue will grow by 6% and...

Ming Lu

BABA's latest financial report shows improved performance across key businesses, with growth in cloud and overseas e-commerce revenue.

We expect up to 20% earnings CAGR amidst improving China macro backdrop will easily lift Alibaba's valuation to above 15x P/E by FY26, with the...