Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous record of Q1 2021 by more than HK$100bn. The first three weeks in April were HK$168bn.</li>
<li>Gross and net flows this week subsided quite substantially compared to previous weeks. </li>
<li>We are in a post-tariff breather as the US says the ball is in China's court and China looks like it will wait things out. Port volumes are telling.</li>
</ul>


Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous record of Q1 2021 by more than HK$100bn. The first three weeks in April were HK$168bn.
Gross and net flows this week subsided quite substantially compared to previous weeks. 
We are in a post-tariff breather as the US says the ball is in China's court and China looks like it will wait things out. Port volumes are telling.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 18 Apr 2025); Buying of Internet, SOEs, and ETFs Previously Sold

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect Alibaba to deliver in-line-with-consensus revenue growth and adjusted EBITA for 4QFY25 (March year-end).</li><li>For core domestic e-commerce business, driven by healthy GMV growth and an increase in monetization rate aided by incremental technology service fee charges and the increase in penetration of Quanzhantui, Alibaba could sustain solid customer management revenue (CMR) growth and positive profitability growth of Taobao and Tmall (T&amp;T) Group in 4QFY25, in our view.</li><li>YoY revenue growth of cloud business could see further acceleration as expected driven by solid public cloud revenue growth and incremental contribution from AI cloud. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We expect Alibaba to deliver in-line-with-consensus revenue growth and adjusted EBITA for 4QFY25 (March year-end).For core domestic e-commerce business, driven by healthy GMV growth and an increase in monetization rate aided by incremental technology service fee charges and the increase in penetration of Quanzhantui, Alibaba could sustain solid customer management revenue (CMR) growth and positive profitability growth of Taobao and Tmall (T&amp;T) Group in 4QFY25, in our view.YoY revenue growth of cloud business could see further acceleration as expected driven by solid public cloud revenue growth and incremental contribution from AI cloud. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Alibaba (BABA US) - Positive Profitability Growth of Core E-Commerce Business Likely to Sustain

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>This Insight analyses <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> multi-leg option strategies traded over the last five trading days on the Hong Kong Exchange. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided.</li>
<li>These traders tailor structures to risk budgets and take calculated bets. With implied volatility below its median and below realized volatility, all strategies reviewed are long volatility.</li>
<li>Almost 20% of all strategies are Calendar or Diagonal Spreads. Diagonal spreads can even earn premium in the current volatility environment. A live strategy is examined.</li>
</ul>


This Insight analyses Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) multi-leg option strategies traded over the last five trading days on the Hong Kong Exchange. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided.
These traders tailor structures to risk budgets and take calculated bets. With implied volatility below its median and below realized volatility, all strategies reviewed are long volatility.
Almost 20% of all strategies are Calendar or Diagonal Spreads. Diagonal spreads can even earn premium in the current volatility environment. A live strategy is examined.


Alibaba (9988 HK): Top Trades - Strategies That Stand Out.

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>Tesla has strengthened ties with Baidu amid the US-Sino tech crossfire, showcasing the complex dynamics between the two countries.</li><li>China achieves a breakthrough in semiconductor technology with EUV, while lawmakers propose anonymous semiconductor purchases to secure the industry.</li><li>VCI Global's plan to establish India's first semiconductor wire plant in Chennai marks a significant milestone for the tech industry in the country, with Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen aiming to revolutionize China's AI.</li></ul>

Tesla has strengthened ties with Baidu amid the US-Sino tech crossfire, showcasing the complex dynamics between the two countries.China achieves a breakthrough in semiconductor technology with EUV, while lawmakers propose anonymous semiconductor purchases to secure the industry.VCI Global's plan to establish India's first semiconductor wire plant in Chennai marks a significant milestone for the tech industry in the country, with Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen aiming to revolutionize China's AI.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-Mar-2025): Tesla strengthens ties with Baidu amid US-China tech tensions.

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

<ul><li>Trading activity for daily leveraged certificates (DLCs) reached a 20-month high in February with a turnover of $447M.</li><li>Alibaba DLCs' trading turnover increased 457% month-on-month to $70M, driven by Chinese government support for AI industries.</li><li>Nvidia DLCs became the top traded US stock DLC in February, overtaking Tesla, with S$1.4M traded.</li></ul>

Trading activity for daily leveraged certificates (DLCs) reached a 20-month high in February with a turnover of $447M.Alibaba DLCs' trading turnover increased 457% month-on-month to $70M, driven by Chinese government support for AI industries.Nvidia DLCs became the top traded US stock DLC in February, overtaking Tesla, with S$1.4M traded.

DLCs Trading Activity Hit 20-Month High Amid Stock Market Rotation

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 18 Apr 2025); Buying of Internet, SOEs, and ETFs Previously Sold

SOUTHBOUND gross flows were super slow for the week comparatively speaking, but they were still a net buy. BABA and Tencent and Meituan were buys....

Travis Lundy

Alibaba (BABA US) - Positive Profitability Growth of Core E-Commerce Business Likely to Sustain

We fine-tune our SOTP-based target price to US$157.0 (was US$157.7), translating into 16.9x FY25E PE (non-GAAP). Maintain BUY

CMB International

Alibaba (9988 HK): Top Trades - Strategies That Stand Out.

Analysis of Alibaba's multi-leg option strategies on the HK Exchange shows traders taking calculated bets with long volatility strategies,...

Gaudenz Schneider

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-Mar-2025): Tesla strengthens ties with Baidu amid US-China tech tensions.

Weekly news roundup: Tesla strengthens ties with Baidu amid US-Sino tech tensions, China makes EUV breakthrough in semiconductors, lawmakers...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

DLCs Trading Activity Hit 20-Month High Amid Stock Market Rotation

Trading activity for daily leveraged certificates (DLCs) reached a 20-month high in February with a turnover of $447M. Alibaba DLCs' trading...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 18 Apr 2025); Buying of Internet, SOEs, and ETFs Previously Sold

SOUTHBOUND gross flows were super slow for the week comparatively speaking, but they were still a net buy. BABA and Tencent and Meituan were buys....

Travis Lundy

Alibaba (BABA US) - Positive Profitability Growth of Core E-Commerce Business Likely to Sustain

We fine-tune our SOTP-based target price to US$157.0 (was US$157.7), translating into 16.9x FY25E PE (non-GAAP). Maintain BUY

CMB International

Alibaba (9988 HK): Top Trades - Strategies That Stand Out.

​Analysis of Alibaba's multi-leg option strategies on the HK Exchange shows traders taking calculated bets with long volatility strategies,...

Gaudenz Schneider

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-Mar-2025): Tesla strengthens ties with Baidu amid US-China tech tensions.

Weekly news roundup: Tesla strengthens ties with Baidu amid US-Sino tech tensions, China makes EUV breakthrough in semiconductors, lawmakers...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

DLCs Trading Activity Hit 20-Month High Amid Stock Market Rotation

Trading activity for daily leveraged certificates (DLCs) reached a 20-month high in February with a turnover of $447M. Alibaba DLCs' trading...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Analysis of Alibaba's multi-leg option strategies on the HK Exchange shows traders taking calculated bets with long volatility strategies,...