Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China’s landmark Third Plenum of the ruling party disappointed by offering policy tweaks which appeared underwhelming given concerns over supply-demand imbalances and feeble animal spirits among consumers and investors. </li>
<li>Beijing appears fixated on long-term national security, self-sufficiency and technological superiority, perhaps believing that near-term headwinds can be managed. </li>
<li>But achieving these aims is a herculean task for an economy which remains stuck in a low-growth rut. We do not see a strong comeback in the economy.    </li>
</ul>


China’s landmark Third Plenum of the ruling party disappointed by offering policy tweaks which appeared underwhelming given concerns over supply-demand imbalances and feeble animal spirits among consumers and investors. 
Beijing appears fixated on long-term national security, self-sufficiency and technological superiority, perhaps believing that near-term headwinds can be managed. 
But achieving these aims is a herculean task for an economy which remains stuck in a low-growth rut. We do not see a strong comeback in the economy.    


China Economics: Third Plenum Fails To Move The Dial Despite Growth Headwinds

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

<ul><li>CTA Positioning Update The latest CTA picture by UBS shows that managed money is currently maxed long coffee and oil and max short corn, soybeans cotton and lean hogs.</li><li>The contrarian ideas would speculate on the exact opposite of this positioning. On the other hand, the data currently suggests only slight changes in the current positioning.</li><li>On the other hand, the data currently suggests only slight changes in the current positioning.</li></ul>

CTA Positioning Update The latest CTA picture by UBS shows that managed money is currently maxed long coffee and oil and max short corn, soybeans cotton and lean hogs.The contrarian ideas would speculate on the exact opposite of this positioning. On the other hand, the data currently suggests only slight changes in the current positioning.On the other hand, the data currently suggests only slight changes in the current positioning.

The Return of La Niña // CTA Positioning Update

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

<ul><li>Take aways: China will flood markets with copper supply</li><li>Copper har decoupled from macro fundamentals according to our PCA tool</li><li>It’s a tuck or war between positioning and fundamentals in metals. <span style="font-weight: 400;">Crude tumbling despite all time highs in global flight data and crowded congestion</span></li></ul>

Take aways: China will flood markets with copper supplyCopper har decoupled from macro fundamentals according to our PCA toolIt’s a tuck or war between positioning and fundamentals in metals. Crude tumbling despite all time highs in global flight data and crowded congestion

Energy Cable: More pain to come in copper, while Nat Gas is a long trade?

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>FM Nirmala Sitharaman prepares to unveil the Union Budget for the fiscal year 2024-25 on July 23rd.</li>
<li>Movement of Sensex and Nifty around the Budget day and post that.</li>
<li>What sectors performed best and worst during the last 10 budget days?</li>
</ul>


FM Nirmala Sitharaman prepares to unveil the Union Budget for the fiscal year 2024-25 on July 23rd.
Movement of Sensex and Nifty around the Budget day and post that.
What sectors performed best and worst during the last 10 budget days?


Mapping Indian Market Performance Around Past 10 Budgets

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Welcome to the “Week at a Glance,” where we examine the key releases and themes for the week ahead through the lens of macro trading.</li><li>China has reduced the 7-day repo rate by 10 basis points, following up with a cut in the loan prime rate.</li><li>This move mirrors the strategy from June 13, 2023.</li></ul>

Welcome to the “Week at a Glance,” where we examine the key releases and themes for the week ahead through the lens of macro trading.China has reduced the 7-day repo rate by 10 basis points, following up with a cut in the loan prime rate.This move mirrors the strategy from June 13, 2023.

The Week At Glance: A look at US Cycle indicators. You sure consensus is right?

Insights Relevant to South Africa Equity Markets