Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The US has ramped up its tariff threats months before Trump even takes office. The newly appointed trade representative is a China hawk with some questionable policy ideas.  </li>
<li>China has reduced its dependency on US exports by half over the last several years and is better prepared to handle trade negotiations.</li>
<li>Although previous trade negotiations during Trump's first term lasted more than a year, most of the tariffs were never imposed.</li>
</ul>


The US has ramped up its tariff threats months before Trump even takes office. The newly appointed trade representative is a China hawk with some questionable policy ideas.  
China has reduced its dependency on US exports by half over the last several years and is better prepared to handle trade negotiations.
Although previous trade negotiations during Trump's first term lasted more than a year, most of the tariffs were never imposed.


CHINA TARIFFS: Fact and Fiction (Correction)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>Ammonia is a highly toxic colourless gas with a distinct smell</li><li>It is composed of nitrogen and hydrogen</li><li>Ammonia can be produced in soil from bacterial processes and from the decomposition of organic matter</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ammonia is a highly toxic colourless gas with a distinct smellIt is composed of nitrogen and hydrogenAmmonia can be produced in soil from bacterial processes and from the decomposition of organic matterContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ESG Economist - What is the role of green ammonia in decarbonizing the world?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas

Based in Paris, BNP Paribas' Economic Research Department is composed of economists and statisticians: The OECD Economics team, in charge of macroeconomic and financial forecasts, and the team of statisticians, both headed by Hélène Baudchon. The Emerging Economies and Country Risk team, led by François Faure and assisted by Christine Peltier, responsible for assessing country risk and its components. The Banking Economics team, led by Laurent Quignon, studies the banking systems of major developed countries and the impact of prudential standards. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The economy continues to hold up.</li><li>A new period of drought will affect growth in 2024, but non-agricultural activity remains sustained.</li><li>Investment is recovering sharply and the rapid drop in inflation is buoying household consumption.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The economy continues to hold up.A new period of drought will affect growth in 2024, but non-agricultural activity remains sustained.Investment is recovering sharply and the rapid drop in inflation is buoying household consumption.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>In 2024, Angola’s economic growth struggles to bounce back significantly.</li><li>The non-oil economy is facing multiple headwinds, while the hydrocarbon sector is seeing a moderate return to growth.</li><li>Despite large current account surpluses, pressure on external accounts has remained strong since resumption, in 2023, of the servicing of the external debt owed to China.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In 2024, Angola’s economic growth struggles to bounce back significantly.The non-oil economy is facing multiple headwinds, while the hydrocarbon sector is seeing a moderate return to growth.Despite large current account surpluses, pressure on external accounts has remained strong since resumption, in 2023, of the servicing of the external debt owed to China.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Although tensions in the Middle East and the geopolitical risk have risen sharply since October 2023, there have been contrasting developments in the maritime trade and energy markets.</li><li>While the cost of some freight categories has risen, oil prices have fallen, mainly due to abundant supply.</li><li>An escalation of the conflict is still a possibility and would drive energy prices higher.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Although tensions in the Middle East and the geopolitical risk have risen sharply since October 2023, there have been contrasting developments in the maritime trade and energy markets.While the cost of some freight categories has risen, oil prices have fallen, mainly due to abundant supply.An escalation of the conflict is still a possibility and would drive energy prices higher.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Middle East: What are the consequences of the increased geopolitical risk in the Middle East?

Macroeconomics
Macroeconomics Insights

CHINA TARIFFS: Fact and Fiction (Correction)

Trump has appointed a China hawk as the USTR. China is not as dependent on US trade as it was under Trump's first term.

David Mudd

ESG Economist - What is the role of green ammonia in decarbonizing the world?

Ammonia is a highly toxic colourless gas with a distinct smell. It is composed of nitrogen and hydrogen. Ammonia can be produced in soil from...

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Morocco: Potential yet to be confirmed

The economy continues to hold up. A new period of drought will affect growth in 2024, but non-agricultural activity remains sustained.

BNP Paribas

Angola: the noose tightens

In 2024, Angola’s economic growth struggles to bounce back significantly.The non-oil economy is facing multiple headwinds, while the hydrocarbon...

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Middle East: What are the consequences of the increased geopolitical risk in the Middle East?

Although tensions in the Middle East and the geopolitical risk have risen sharply since October 2023, there have been contrasting developments in...

BNP Paribas