AI Generated Content, Heteronomics

Heteronomics AI

AI Generated Content

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The BOJ raised its policy rate by 15 basis points to 0.25%, contrary to consensus expectations, signalling a proactive stance in addressing inflationary pressures while supporting economic recovery.</li><li>Future interest rate decisions will be influenced by global economic developments, domestic economic indicators, inflation trends, financial market stability, and the impact of government economic measures.</li><li>The BOJ’s strategy focuses on gradual policy normalization, with a cautious approach to reducing JGB purchases and raising interest rates, ensuring sustained economic growth and stable inflation.</li></ul><div><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></div>

The BOJ raised its policy rate by 15 basis points to 0.25%, contrary to consensus expectations, signalling a proactive stance in addressing inflationary pressures while supporting economic recovery.Future interest rate decisions will be influenced by global economic developments, domestic economic indicators, inflation trends, financial market stability, and the impact of government economic measures.The BOJ’s strategy focuses on gradual policy normalization, with a cautious approach to reducing JGB purchases and raising interest rates, ensuring sustained economic growth and stable inflation.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Japan Policy Rate 0.25% (consensus 0.1%) in Jul-24

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

<ul><li>EA inflation exceeded consensus expectations by 0.2pp as it increased to 2.6% y-o-y in July but was within 1bps of our forecast as our surprises were less and offsetting.</li><li>Further resilience in services inflation kept the core at 2.9%, demonstrating upside news in the less volatile areas more reflective of domestic conditions.</li><li>Forecasts for July have been trending higher, challenging the ECB narrative where stability permits cuts. September remains likely, but the cycle could be doused swiftly.</li></ul><p></p>

EA inflation exceeded consensus expectations by 0.2pp as it increased to 2.6% y-o-y in July but was within 1bps of our forecast as our surprises were less and offsetting.Further resilience in services inflation kept the core at 2.9%, demonstrating upside news in the less volatile areas more reflective of domestic conditions.Forecasts for July have been trending higher, challenging the ECB narrative where stability permits cuts. September remains likely, but the cycle could be doused swiftly.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

ABN AMRO is a personal bank in the digital age. A bank committed to playing a serious role in society. This digital age helps us to bring banking ever closer to our clients and what they need. Our areas of focus are inclusion, sustainability, social entrepreneurship, innovation, daily banking and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The FOMC will keep its key policy rates on hold this week, but will start paving the way for a September rate cut</li><li>In recent months the balance of risk between price stability and full employment has shifted towards a more even stance</li><li>While inflation is generally coming down in line with expectations, and growth continues to surprise to the upside, signs of a weakening labor market are becoming increasingly clear, leading to an increasing amount of calls for a rate cut as early as this July meeting</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The FOMC will keep its key policy rates on hold this week, but will start paving the way for a September rate cutIn recent months the balance of risk between price stability and full employment has shifted towards a more even stanceWhile inflation is generally coming down in line with expectations, and growth continues to surprise to the upside, signs of a weakening labor market are becoming increasingly clear, leading to an increasing amount of calls for a rate cut as early as this July meetingContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FOMC Preview – Increased confidence on inflation, patience running out

<div><ul><li>Euro Macro: Upside GDP surprise driven by Ireland; periphery strength offsets German weakness – Eurozone GDP surprised to the upside in Q2, with the economy growing 0.3% vs 0.2% consensus/ABN (unrounded, growth was 0.259%, only a small surprise compared to our unrounded 0.22% forecast).</li><li>Ahead of the aggregate release, upside surprises in France and Spain were offset by a surprise contraction in Germany (see below).</li><li>Growth in Italy was in line with expectations at 0.2% q/q. </li></ul></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Euro Macro: Upside GDP surprise driven by Ireland; periphery strength offsets German weakness – Eurozone GDP surprised to the upside in Q2, with the economy growing 0.3% vs 0.2% consensus/ABN (unrounded, growth was 0.259%, only a small surprise compared to our unrounded 0.22% forecast).Ahead of the aggregate release, upside surprises in France and Spain were offset by a surprise contraction in Germany (see below).Growth in Italy was in line with expectations at 0.2% q/q. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Eurozone growth despite German contraction; HICP inflation to edge lower

Founder & Head of Research, Fortress Hill Advisors

Alex Ng

Founder & Head of Research

Fortress Hill Advisors

Founded in Hong Kong in 2019, Fortress Hill Advisor seeks to provide premium economic and financial researches.

Premium Economic & Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Concentration of debt, asset prices, and fiscal deficit will determine the tipping point of China’s debt. </li>
<li>If China does not continue to work on debt de-concentration, prop up its asset prices, or rein in fiscal deficit, China may as well face a debt crisis.</li>
<li>To examine the conditions for China’s debt situation, it is vital to look at three key indicators of debt sustainability: concentration of debt, currency stability, and fiscal budget.</li>
</ul>


Concentration of debt, asset prices, and fiscal deficit will determine the tipping point of China’s debt. 
If China does not continue to work on debt de-concentration, prop up its asset prices, or rein in fiscal deficit, China may as well face a debt crisis.
To examine the conditions for China’s debt situation, it is vital to look at three key indicators of debt sustainability: concentration of debt, currency stability, and fiscal budget.


Macroeconomics
Macroeconomics Insights

Japan Policy Rate 0.25% (consensus 0.1%) in Jul-24

The BOJ raised its policy rate by 15 basis points to 0.25%, contrary to consensus expectations, signalling a proactive stance in addressing...

Heteronomics AI

EA: Inflation Drift Risks Drowning Cuts

EA inflation exceeded consensus expectations by 0.2pp as it increased to 2.6% y-o-y in July but was within 1bps of our forecast as our surprises...

Phil Rush

FOMC Preview – Increased confidence on inflation, patience running out

The FOMC will keep its key policy rates on hold this week, but will start paving the way for a September rate cut In recent months the balance of...

ABN AMRO

Eurozone growth despite German contraction; HICP inflation to edge lower

Upside GDP surprise driven by Ireland; periphery strength offsets German weakness – Eurozone GDP surprised to the upside in Q2, with the economy...

ABN AMRO

The Tipping Point for China’s Debt

China's debt tipping point hinges on concentration of debt, asset prices, and fiscal deficit; without addressing these factors, a debt crisis looms.

Alex Ng

Japan Policy Rate 0.25% (consensus 0.1%) in Jul-24

The BOJ raised its policy rate by 15 basis points to 0.25%, contrary to consensus expectations, signalling a proactive stance in addressing...

Heteronomics AI

EA: Inflation Drift Risks Drowning Cuts

EA inflation exceeded consensus expectations by 0.2pp as it increased to 2.6% y-o-y in July but was within 1bps of our forecast as our surprises...

Phil Rush

FOMC Preview – Increased confidence on inflation, patience running out

The FOMC will keep its key policy rates on hold this week, but will start paving the way for a September rate cut In recent months the balance of...

ABN AMRO

Eurozone growth despite German contraction; HICP inflation to edge lower

Upside GDP surprise driven by Ireland; periphery strength offsets German weakness – Eurozone GDP surprised to the upside in Q2, with the economy...

ABN AMRO

The Tipping Point for China’s Debt

​China's debt tipping point hinges on concentration of debt, asset prices, and fiscal deficit; without addressing these factors, a debt crisis looms.

Alex Ng

China's debt tipping point hinges on concentration of debt, asset prices, and fiscal deficit; without addressing these factors, a debt crisis looms.