IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> did not dispute the <a href="https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20241119/k10014643321000.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NHK article’s</a> claims that the founding family aims to raise buyout funds by the end of the fiscal year.</li>
<li>Since 13 November, there have been conflicting press reports on the MBO offer price. The NHK article’s implied offer price of JPY3,082 seems the most credible. </li>
<li>The MBO’s aggressive completion timeline pressures <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)</a> to respond by either overbidding, working with the founding family at the back-end or walking away.</li>
</ul>



Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) did not dispute the NHK article’s claims that the founding family aims to raise buyout funds by the end of the fiscal year.
Since 13 November, there have been conflicting press reports on the MBO offer price. The NHK article’s implied offer price of JPY3,082 seems the most credible. 
The MBO’s aggressive completion timeline pressures Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) to respond by either overbidding, working with the founding family at the back-end or walking away.


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Evaluating the Potential MBO

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Days ago we got a dramatic headline about Ito family scion ITO Junro and his family company Ito Kogyo making a bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The stock popped, then fell. Details were not clear. Was the ¥9trln an EV number? A market cap? Was he serious? How would he get funding. Skepticism was rife. </li>
<li>Today we get more headlines from NHK. who says the family wants to raise ¥8trln to take 7&amp;i private by end-Feb 2025.</li>
</ul>


Days ago we got a dramatic headline about Ito family scion ITO Junro and his family company Ito Kogyo making a bid for Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP). 
The stock popped, then fell. Details were not clear. Was the ¥9trln an EV number? A market cap? Was he serious? How would he get funding. Skepticism was rife. 
Today we get more headlines from NHK. who says the family wants to raise ¥8trln to take 7&amp;i private by end-Feb 2025.


7&I (3382) Ito Family MBO - New Urgency for ACT

<ul>
<li>A lot of the talk around the news that Ito family scion Ito Junro had proposed to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> an MBO was about thwarting Alimentation Couche-Tard.</li>
<li>Several mentioned that this bid - seemingly uncompetitive at the moment - would make ACT back down. I discussed the bid and its repercussions <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/7-i-3382-jp-an-ito-family-mbo-with-itochu-at-9trln-maybe-information-is-scarce?slug=7-i-3382-jp-an-ito-family-mbo-with-itochu-at-9trln-maybe-information-is-scarce" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. </li>
<li>Here I suggest an alternate solution which might get everyone what they want.</li>
</ul>


A lot of the talk around the news that Ito family scion Ito Junro had proposed to Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) an MBO was about thwarting Alimentation Couche-Tard.
Several mentioned that this bid - seemingly uncompetitive at the moment - would make ACT back down. I discussed the bid and its repercussions here. 
Here I suggest an alternate solution which might get everyone what they want.


7&I (3382) - What If...  A Modest Proposal

Renewable Japan Co., Ltd. engages in development, generation, operation, and management of renewable energy power plants. The Company develops renewable energy projects and provides related financing, maintenance, asset management, and other services. Renewable Japan conducts businesses in Japan.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renewable-japan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35211:1" rel="noopener">Renewable Japan (9522 JP)</a> has recommended a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyu-fudosan-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8355:1" rel="noopener">Tokyu Fudosan Holdings (3289 JP)</a>-sponsored MBO at JPY1,250 per share, a 132.3% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>The high takeover premium reflects the 55% YTD decline in the share price. While the timing is opportunistic, the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples. </li>
<li>The irrevocables and low required minority acceptance rate ensure that this is a done deal. The tender runs from 15 November to 8 January 2025 (34 business days).</li>
</ul>



Renewable Japan (9522 JP) has recommended a Tokyu Fudosan Holdings (3289 JP)-sponsored MBO at JPY1,250 per share, a 132.3% premium to the last close.
The high takeover premium reflects the 55% YTD decline in the share price. While the timing is opportunistic, the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples. 
The irrevocables and low required minority acceptance rate ensure that this is a done deal. The tender runs from 15 November to 8 January 2025 (34 business days).


Renewable Japan (9522 JP): Tokyu Fudosan (3289 JP)-Sponsored MBO Set at a 132% Takeover Premium

<ul>
<li>Yesterday a news article from Bloomberg suggested 7&amp;i was "considering" an MBO. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> later confirmed they had received a non-binding proposal from ITO Junro/family.</li>
<li>The initial number was ¥9trln. If market cap? High. If EV, too low. That would have implied a price just over the first "grossly inadequate" ACT price.</li>
<li>There is a lot we don't know. This changes the landscape. It probably shifts the range trade, but it will shift more when we get more clarity on ITO-san's price.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday a news article from Bloomberg suggested 7&amp;i was "considering" an MBO. Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) later confirmed they had received a non-binding proposal from ITO Junro/family.
The initial number was ¥9trln. If market cap? High. If EV, too low. That would have implied a price just over the first "grossly inadequate" ACT price.
There is a lot we don't know. This changes the landscape. It probably shifts the range trade, but it will shift more when we get more clarity on ITO-san's price.


7&I (3382 JP) - An ITO Family MBO? With Itochu? At ¥9trln? Maybe. Information Is Scarce