Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Upwards revisions to Euro area labour costs and a jump in negotiated wage settlements extend cost growth inconsistent with a sustainable return to the 2% inflation target.</li><li>The ECB hopes this will subside swiftly in 2025, with productivity growth and squeezed profit margins helping contain inflation. But these hopes seem set to be disappointed.</li><li>Persistent wage pressures should prevent a 50bp rate cut in December and limit further cuts. Less dovish fundamentals feed bullish Euro seasonality, magnified by positioning.</li></ul>

Upwards revisions to Euro area labour costs and a jump in negotiated wage settlements extend cost growth inconsistent with a sustainable return to the 2% inflation target.The ECB hopes this will subside swiftly in 2025, with productivity growth and squeezed profit margins helping contain inflation. But these hopes seem set to be disappointed.Persistent wage pressures should prevent a 50bp rate cut in December and limit further cuts. Less dovish fundamentals feed bullish Euro seasonality, magnified by positioning.

Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

<ul>
<li>For the first half of November, we forecast headline inflation at 0.40% bw, below the historical average due to the early discount season of “El Buen Fin”.</li>
<li>This would bring inflation to 4.59% YoY.</li>
<li>Our estimate of 0.40% bw is below the historical average of 0.54% bw for this period.</li>
</ul>


For the first half of November, we forecast headline inflation at 0.40% bw, below the historical average due to the early discount season of “El Buen Fin”.
This would bring inflation to 4.59% YoY.
Our estimate of 0.40% bw is below the historical average of 0.54% bw for this period.


Actinver Research - Macro Daily: Inflation 1h-Nov

<ul><li>A surprising airfare rebound extended CPI inflation’s energised rise to 2.3%. Its higher weighting in core and services measures compounded the upside surprise there.</li><li>Underlying inflation also strengthened on other measures, like the median, and looks inconsistent with a sustainable return to the inflation target.</li><li>We still expect inflation to trend above the target in 2025 on excessive unit labour cost pressures. The BoE can remain gradual in its easing cycle, skipping a cut in December.</li></ul>

A surprising airfare rebound extended CPI inflation’s energised rise to 2.3%. Its higher weighting in core and services measures compounded the upside surprise there.Underlying inflation also strengthened on other measures, like the median, and looks inconsistent with a sustainable return to the inflation target.We still expect inflation to trend above the target in 2025 on excessive unit labour cost pressures. The BoE can remain gradual in its easing cycle, skipping a cut in December.

<ul><li>October's final Euro area inflation print confirmed its surprisingly steep rise to 2% y-o-y. Strength was not only broad across countries but components with median rates rising.</li><li>Underlying inflation pressures were broadly above expectations and target-consistent levels. Upwardly revised labour cost growth won’t help sustain 2% HICP inflation.</li><li>Confirmed price and wage inflation strength adds to hawkish GDP and unemployment news, curbing the case for 50bp to remain less likely than the dovish market hopes.</li></ul>

October's final Euro area inflation print confirmed its surprisingly steep rise to 2% y-o-y. Strength was not only broad across countries but components with median rates rising.Underlying inflation pressures were broadly above expectations and target-consistent levels. Upwardly revised labour cost growth won’t help sustain 2% HICP inflation.Confirmed price and wage inflation strength adds to hawkish GDP and unemployment news, curbing the case for 50bp to remain less likely than the dovish market hopes.

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

ICE US - Cocoa Futures
The Cocoa contract is the world benchmark for the global cocoa market. The contract prices the physical delivery of exchange-grade product from a variety of African, Asian and Central and South American origins to any of five US delivery ports (Port of New York District, Delaware River Port District, Port of Hampton Roads, Port of Albany, or Port of Baltimore). Calls for delivery of any kind of cocoa bean as   long as it meets FDA standards for importation.   
Standards: Established by Exch. licensed graders  in accordance with specified tolerances for defects, bean count, bean size and other standards.

<ul><li>Latest CTA-Flow Forecast CTA positioning and UBS' flow model indicate slightly bullish momentum for some agriculture commodities as well as energy and on the flip side bearish momentum for precious metals and industrial metals.</li><li>Particularly we would like to highlight the expected bullish flows in cotton and bearish flows in the flesh markets, which align with some of our market setups.</li><li>“In currencies, the US dollar gained renewed momentum from Trump’s win, with the 1.7% rise in the DXY index on 6 November the largest one-day advance in two years.</li></ul>

Latest CTA-Flow Forecast CTA positioning and UBS' flow model indicate slightly bullish momentum for some agriculture commodities as well as energy and on the flip side bearish momentum for precious metals and industrial metals.Particularly we would like to highlight the expected bullish flows in cotton and bearish flows in the flesh markets, which align with some of our market setups.“In currencies, the US dollar gained renewed momentum from Trump’s win, with the 1.7% rise in the DXY index on 6 November the largest one-day advance in two years.

Hershey’s Warns About Cocoa Inflation // Latest CTA-Flow Forecast

Inflation
When things get dearer

EA Wages Are Too Inflationary For 50bp

Upwards revisions to Euro area labour costs and a jump in negotiated wage settlements extend cost growth inconsistent with a sustainable return to...

Phil Rush

Actinver Research - Macro Daily: Inflation 1h-Nov

For the first half of November, we forecast headline inflation at 0.40% bw, below the historical average due to the early discount season of “El...

Actinver

UK Inflation Flies Cuts To 2025

A surprising airfare rebound extended CPI inflation’s energised rise to 2.3%. Its higher weighting in core and services measures compounded the...

Phil Rush

EA Inflation Doesn’t Need A 50bp Cut

October's final Euro area inflation print confirmed its surprisingly steep rise to 2% y-o-y. Strength was not only broad across countries but...

Phil Rush

Hershey’s Warns About Cocoa Inflation // Latest CTA-Flow Forecast

Particularly we would like to highlight the expected bullish flows in cotton and bearish flows in the flesh markets, which align with some of our...

The Commodity Report