Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Inflation for the first half of August stood at -0.03% bw, and on an annual basis, it decreased from 5.52% to 5.16%.</li>
<li>Core inflation fell below 4.0% for the first time since February 2021.</li>
<li>The revision to the CPI methodology shows a higher weight for services and a lower weight for energy products.</li>
</ul>


Inflation for the first half of August stood at -0.03% bw, and on an annual basis, it decreased from 5.52% to 5.16%.
Core inflation fell below 4.0% for the first time since February 2021.
The revision to the CPI methodology shows a higher weight for services and a lower weight for energy products.


Actinver Research - Macro Daily: Inflation 1h-Aug

<ul>
<li>We expect inflation for the first half of August to be 0.02% bw, as agricultural prices continue to reverse the increases observed in June and July.</li>
<li>On Thursday, in addition to inflation data, new consumer basket weights will be released.</li>
<li>Typically, inflation for this fortnight averages 0.29% bw.</li>
</ul>


We expect inflation for the first half of August to be 0.02% bw, as agricultural prices continue to reverse the increases observed in June and July.
On Thursday, in addition to inflation data, new consumer basket weights will be released.
Typically, inflation for this fortnight averages 0.29% bw.


Actinver Research - Macro Daily: Preliminary Inflation 1h-Aug

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

<ul><li>The final EA inflation print broadly confirmed the flash release’s surprise rise to 2.58% in July, with services only slowing to 4%. Median rates are pushing above 2% again.</li><li>Annual underlying inflation measures are still slowing, but the extent is being revised higher, and so are headline consensus forecast profiles.</li><li>Renewed slowing over the next two months, while medium-term projections are stable, should allow the ECB to cut in September. Resilience should urge cautious restraint.</li></ul>

The final EA inflation print broadly confirmed the flash release’s surprise rise to 2.58% in July, with services only slowing to 4%. Median rates are pushing above 2% again.Annual underlying inflation measures are still slowing, but the extent is being revised higher, and so are headline consensus forecast profiles.Renewed slowing over the next two months, while medium-term projections are stable, should allow the ECB to cut in September. Resilience should urge cautious restraint.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>CPIF ex energycame out at 2.2% y/y in July, 0.1 point lower than in June.</li><li>We saw CPIF ex energy at 2.0% and the Riksbank forecast was 2.2%.Seasonally adjusted, the monthly change in core inflation picked up after the low June reading.</li><li>Electricity pricesfell by 5.0% m/m, below our call at -3.7%.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CPIF ex energycame out at 2.2% y/y in July, 0.1 point lower than in June.We saw CPIF ex energy at 2.0% and the Riksbank forecast was 2.2%.Seasonally adjusted, the monthly change in core inflation picked up after the low June reading.Electricity pricesfell by 5.0% m/m, below our call at -3.7%.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Swedish July inflation review:  A bumpy ride

<ul><li>Easing US inflation since early summer has paved the way for US rate cuts starting in September.</li><li>We do not however share the market perception about an imminent recession and believe the Fed will not need to cut faster than 25bp/quarter, waiting until December for their second move.</li><li>More sticky Eurozone inflation means the ECB will also move at the same quaterly pace.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Easing US inflation since early summer has paved the way for US rate cuts starting in September.We do not however share the market perception about an imminent recession and believe the Fed will not need to cut faster than 25bp/quarter, waiting until December for their second move.More sticky Eurozone inflation means the ECB will also move at the same quaterly pace.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Major forecasts: Inflation low enough for the Fed