Decoding the Future of MENA Financial Markets, MENA Market Lab

Denis Collot

Decoding the Future of MENA Financial Markets

MENA Market Lab

Decoding the future of Middle East and North Africa Financial markets

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
<p>Inflation lower. Trade deficit improving.       </p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Next phase for privatisation pushed to Q1 2026. Markets all-in on Egypt.</p>
</li>
<li>It seems we could be in the last stretch of negotiations for a ceasefire in Ukraine.</li>
</ul>



Inflation lower. Trade deficit improving.       


Next phase for privatisation pushed to Q1 2026. Markets all-in on Egypt.

It seems we could be in the last stretch of negotiations for a ceasefire in Ukraine.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Hang Seng Bank Limited and its subsidiaries provide banking and related financial services.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)</a>’s IFA considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a>’s scheme privatisation offer of HK$155 per share to be fair and reasonable. </li>
<li>The key condition is scheme approval by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% disinterested shareholders' rejection). The scheme vote remains low risk.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and privatisation precedents. This is done. At the current price and for a 4 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.0%/7.1%.</li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)’s IFA considers HSBC Holdings (5 HK)’s scheme privatisation offer of HK$155 per share to be fair and reasonable. 
The key condition is scheme approval by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% disinterested shareholders' rejection). The scheme vote remains low risk.
The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and privatisation precedents. This is done. At the current price and for a 4 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.0%/7.1%.


Hang Seng Bank (11 HK): HSBC (5 HK)’s Scheme Vote on 8 January

ITOCHU-SHOKUHIN Co., Ltd. is a wholesaler of alcoholic beverages, general foods, and frozen foods.  The Company's products include beer, sake, distilled spirits, seasonings, canned goods, noodles, dried foodstuffs, confectionery, and processed foods.  Itochu-Shokuhin also plans, develops, and sells gift products.

<ul>
<li>On 14 November, media outlets reported that Sapphireterra has <a href="https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/e7ddad68-3d70-4201-b3f3-16f665298127/downloads/055ae6dd-96a9-457f-baab-01eafcc12759/STC%20IS%20Press%20Release%202025-11-05%20E%20FINAL.pdf?ver=1763150335833" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sent a letter</a> to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-shokuhin-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14985:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Shokuhin (2692 JP)</a> Board suggesting two strategic alternatives to improve shareholder returns. </li>
<li>Sapphireterra has suggested that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> privatise Itochu-Shokuhin at JPY14,000, a 50.5% takeover premium. Due to the shareholder structure, Itochu does not need to be this generous.</li>
<li>Sapphireterra has also alternatively suggested JPY7,000 special dividend. The strong YTD share performance suggests no pressing need for the Board to act on this proposal. </li>
</ul>


On 14 November, media outlets reported that Sapphireterra has sent a letter to the Itochu Shokuhin (2692 JP) Board suggesting two strategic alternatives to improve shareholder returns. 
Sapphireterra has suggested that Itochu Corp (8001 JP) privatise Itochu-Shokuhin at JPY14,000, a 50.5% takeover premium. Due to the shareholder structure, Itochu does not need to be this generous.
Sapphireterra has also alternatively suggested JPY7,000 special dividend. The strong YTD share performance suggests no pressing need for the Board to act on this proposal. 


Itochu-Shokuhin (2692 JP): Itochu Likely to Shrug off Sapphireterra’s Privatisation Call

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

ENN Energy Holdings Ltd. distributes natural gas in China.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, invests in, operates, and manages gas pipelines, and sells and distributes piped and bottled gas in China.

<ul>
<li>We now expect the privatisation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a> to be completed by mid-2026, given that the pre-conditions are yet to be satisfied.</li>
<li>For 3Q25, the gas sales volume of ENN Energy has picked up. Meanwhile, net profit for ENN Natural Gas has also recovered. Both results are positive.</li>
<li>Incorporating our latest timetable estimate, EPS forecasts, and adjusted undisturbed PERs, ENN Energy is valued at HK$67.40-72.16, meaning the share price is at 0.4% to 7% discount.</li>
</ul>


We now expect the privatisation of ENN Energy (2688 HK) to be completed by mid-2026, given that the pre-conditions are yet to be satisfied.
For 3Q25, the gas sales volume of ENN Energy has picked up. Meanwhile, net profit for ENN Natural Gas has also recovered. Both results are positive.
Incorporating our latest timetable estimate, EPS forecasts, and adjusted undisturbed PERs, ENN Energy is valued at HK$67.40-72.16, meaning the share price is at 0.4% to 7% discount.


ENN Energy (2688 HK): Our Latest Assessment Remains Positive

SCSK Corporation provides a variety of IT services including system solutions, software development, and data center and communication network management. The Company sells packaged software and network equipment and develops software for distribution, manufacturing, and financial systems among others.  SCSK handles infrastructure software as well.

<ul>
<li>Today, the <a href="https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUC291X90Z21C25A0000000/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5380:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP)</a> plans to privatise <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scsk-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19996:1" rel="noopener">Scsk Corp (9719 JP)</a> through a tender offer. Both shares were placed on a trading halt.</li>
<li>The Nikkei states that the total acquisition cost would be around JPY800 billion, based on an arbitrary assumption that the offer will be around 20% above the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The privatisation is strategically sensible. The rumoured offer price of JPY5,109.60 is attractive compared to peer multiples and would represent an all-time high. </li>
</ul>


Today, the Nikkei reported that Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP) plans to privatise Scsk Corp (9719 JP) through a tender offer. Both shares were placed on a trading halt.
The Nikkei states that the total acquisition cost would be around JPY800 billion, based on an arbitrary assumption that the offer will be around 20% above the undisturbed price.
The privatisation is strategically sensible. The rumoured offer price of JPY5,109.60 is attractive compared to peer multiples and would represent an all-time high. 


SCSK Corp (9719 JP): Sumitomo (8053 JP)’s Rumoured Privatisation Offer

Privatisations
Buy before they do

Egypt (December 16th 2025)

Inflation lower. Trade deficit improving. Next phase for privatisation pushed to Q1 2026. Markets all-in on Egypt. It seems we could be in the...

MENA Market Lab

Hang Seng Bank (11 HK): HSBC (5 HK)’s Scheme Vote on 8 January

The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and privatisation precedents. This is done. At the current price and for a 4 February payment,...

Arun George

Itochu-Shokuhin (2692 JP): Itochu Likely to Shrug off Sapphireterra’s Privatisation Call

Sapphireterra has suggested two proposals (privatisation by Itochu, special divs) to improve shareholder returns. The Board is likely to react to...

Arun George

ENN Energy (2688 HK): Our Latest Assessment Remains Positive

ENN Energy's privatisation is expected to be completed by mid-2026. With positive gas sales volume and net profit for 3Q25, our updated valuation...

Osbert Tang, CFA

SCSK Corp (9719 JP): Sumitomo (8053 JP)’s Rumoured Privatisation Offer

The privatisation is strategically sensible. The rumoured offer price of JPY5,109.60 (JPY800 billion acquisition cost) is attractive compared to...

Arun George