Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We expect inflation for the first fortnight of December to stand at 0.38% bw, given the rebound in prices following “El Buen Fin” discount season.</li>
<li>This fortnight inflation would be in line with the increase of 0.38% bw that is typical observed in this period.</li>
<li>Our forecast is explained by the 0.45% bw increase in core inflation (typically 0.44% bw in the period).</li>
</ul>


We expect inflation for the first fortnight of December to stand at 0.38% bw, given the rebound in prices following “El Buen Fin” discount season.
This fortnight inflation would be in line with the increase of 0.38% bw that is typical observed in this period.
Our forecast is explained by the 0.45% bw increase in core inflation (typically 0.44% bw in the period).


Actinver Research - Macro Daily: Inflation 2h-Nov (Forecast)

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

<ul><li>The final Euro area inflation print for November trimmed its rise by 4bps, rounding it down to 2.2% y-o-y. Revisions were broadly spread over the special aggregates.</li><li>Median inflation remains close to annualising at 2%, although Germany is excessive like the UK. Our projections for underlying pressures softened slightly over the past month.</li><li>In our view, EA inflation will still slow to the 2% target in a few months and stay near there through 2025. Forceful ECB easing could break that benign outlook.</li></ul>

The final Euro area inflation print for November trimmed its rise by 4bps, rounding it down to 2.2% y-o-y. Revisions were broadly spread over the special aggregates.Median inflation remains close to annualising at 2%, although Germany is excessive like the UK. Our projections for underlying pressures softened slightly over the past month.In our view, EA inflation will still slow to the 2% target in a few months and stay near there through 2025. Forceful ECB easing could break that benign outlook.

<ul><li>UK inflation matched expectations by increasing to its highest headline pace since March, although this doubled the BoE’s forecast error to 0.2pp (0.1pp in services).</li><li>Only one division contributed much less to the monthly impulse than last year, with the median rate remaining excessive at 3% amid broadly high unit labour cost rises.</li><li>An early December index date will likely be used, weighing on airfares in the short term. Our forecast still gaps higher than others in 2025 despite the consensus rising.</li></ul>

UK inflation matched expectations by increasing to its highest headline pace since March, although this doubled the BoE’s forecast error to 0.2pp (0.1pp in services).Only one division contributed much less to the monthly impulse than last year, with the median rate remaining excessive at 3% amid broadly high unit labour cost rises.An early December index date will likely be used, weighing on airfares in the short term. Our forecast still gaps higher than others in 2025 despite the consensus rising.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>WPI inflation eased to 1.9%YoY in Nov'24, implying that the real policy rate was +4.6%, reining in industrial growth. Using CPI, the real policy rate in Nov'24 was +1.04%. </li>
<li>That seeming divergence is mainly caused by vegetable inflation, which moderated to a still-high 29.2%YoY in Nov'24 (from Oct'24's 42.2%YoY!). Core CPI inflation has remained below 4%YoY since Dec'23. </li>
<li>The bountiful winter harvest is likely to prompt a steady moderation in food/headline CPI inflation to below 4%YoY by Apr'25. We expect the repo rate to decline 75bp by Jun'25. </li>
</ul>


WPI inflation eased to 1.9%YoY in Nov'24, implying that the real policy rate was +4.6%, reining in industrial growth. Using CPI, the real policy rate in Nov'24 was +1.04%. 
That seeming divergence is mainly caused by vegetable inflation, which moderated to a still-high 29.2%YoY in Nov'24 (from Oct'24's 42.2%YoY!). Core CPI inflation has remained below 4%YoY since Dec'23. 
The bountiful winter harvest is likely to prompt a steady moderation in food/headline CPI inflation to below 4%YoY by Apr'25. We expect the repo rate to decline 75bp by Jun'25. 


India: Policy Rate to Decline 75bp by Jun'25 as Inflation Recedes

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>CPIFstood at 1.8% y/y andCPIF ex energyat 2.4% y/y in November.</li><li>The CPIF inflation was revised down by 0.1% point from 1.9% compared to the flash (but was unchanged at 1.85% with two decimals).</li><li>CPIF ex energy was confirmed. Seasonally adjusted, the monthly change in core inflation has geared up in recent months and has been somewhat above the 2% target.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CPIFstood at 1.8% y/y andCPIF ex energyat 2.4% y/y in November.The CPIF inflation was revised down by 0.1% point from 1.9% compared to the flash (but was unchanged at 1.85% with two decimals).CPIF ex energy was confirmed. Seasonally adjusted, the monthly change in core inflation has geared up in recent months and has been somewhat above the 2% target.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Swedish November inflation review: Several surprises

Inflation
When things get dearer

Actinver Research - Macro Daily: Inflation 2h-Nov (Forecast)

We expect inflation for the first fortnight of December to stand at 0.38% bw, given the rebound in prices following “El Buen Fin” discount season.

Actinver

EA Inflation Less Excessive Near Peak

The final Euro area inflation print for November trimmed its rise by 4bps, rounding it down to 2.2% y-o-y. Revisions were broadly spread over the...

Phil Rush

UK Inflation Extends Broad Rebound

UK inflation matched expectations by increasing to its highest headline pace since March, although this doubled the BoE’s forecast error to 0.2pp...

Phil Rush

India: Policy Rate to Decline 75bp by Jun'25 as Inflation Recedes

WPI inflation at 1.9% implies +4.6% real policy rate. Strong winter harvest to lower food prices, enabling CPI moderation below 4%YoY by Apr'25....

Prasenjit K. Basu

Swedish November inflation review: Several surprises

The CPIF inflation was revised down by 0.1% point from 1.9% compared to the flash (but was unchanged at 1.85% with two decimals).

Nordea

Actinver Research - Macro Daily: Inflation 2h-Nov (Forecast)

We expect inflation for the first fortnight of December to stand at 0.38% bw, given the rebound in prices following “El Buen Fin” discount season.

Actinver

EA Inflation Less Excessive Near Peak

The final Euro area inflation print for November trimmed its rise by 4bps, rounding it down to 2.2% y-o-y. Revisions were broadly spread over the...

Phil Rush

UK Inflation Extends Broad Rebound

UK inflation matched expectations by increasing to its highest headline pace since March, although this doubled the BoE’s forecast error to 0.2pp...

Phil Rush

India: Policy Rate to Decline 75bp by Jun'25 as Inflation Recedes

​WPI inflation at 1.9% implies +4.6% real policy rate. Strong winter harvest to lower food prices, enabling CPI moderation below 4%YoY by Apr'25....

Prasenjit K. Basu

Swedish November inflation review: Several surprises

The CPIF inflation was revised down by 0.1% point from 1.9% compared to the flash (but was unchanged at 1.85% with two decimals).

Nordea

WPI inflation at 1.9% implies +4.6% real policy rate. Strong winter harvest to lower food prices, enabling CPI moderation below 4%YoY by Apr'25....