Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The final EA inflation print confirmed the flash at 2.52% in June, with services refusing to slow from 4.1%. Median inflation rates broadly rebounded, stabilising the 3mma.</li><li>Divergences between member states’ underlying pressures are balancing slightly above a target-consistent pace. The ECB is unlikely to be concerned about that.</li><li>Stability in the ECB’s medium-term forecast seems sufficient for it to cut again in September. Tight labour markets may yet renew pressures and pause cuts later.</li></ul><p></p>

The final EA inflation print confirmed the flash at 2.52% in June, with services refusing to slow from 4.1%. Median inflation rates broadly rebounded, stabilising the 3mma.Divergences between member states’ underlying pressures are balancing slightly above a target-consistent pace. The ECB is unlikely to be concerned about that.Stability in the ECB’s medium-term forecast seems sufficient for it to cut again in September. Tight labour markets may yet renew pressures and pause cuts later.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Morning from Europe! Remember that we release our “Week at a glance” publication instead of the “Something for your Espresso” every Monday before lunch-time.</li><li>Our aim is to digest the release calendar in an actionable way and assess the risk/reward around the macro themes in the context of the economic release calendar.</li><li>This week, we will focus on the US consumer (Retail Sales), UK inflation (CPI) and the EUR rates (ECB meeting).</li></ul>

Morning from Europe! Remember that we release our “Week at a glance” publication instead of the “Something for your Espresso” every Monday before lunch-time.Our aim is to digest the release calendar in an actionable way and assess the risk/reward around the macro themes in the context of the economic release calendar.This week, we will focus on the US consumer (Retail Sales), UK inflation (CPI) and the EUR rates (ECB meeting).

The Week At A Glance: Another inflation shocker in the UK paired with a rebound in US retail sales?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>CPIF ex energycame out at 2.3% y/y in June, 0.7 point lower than in May.</li><li>We and the Riksbank saw CPIF ex energy at 2.5%.Seasonally adjusted, the monthly change in core inflation came down substantially after the elevated May reading.</li><li>Electricity pricesrose by 3.0% m/m, in line with our call (3.1%).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

CPIF ex energycame out at 2.3% y/y in June, 0.7 point lower than in May.We and the Riksbank saw CPIF ex energy at 2.5%.Seasonally adjusted, the monthly change in core inflation came down substantially after the elevated May reading.Electricity pricesrose by 3.0% m/m, in line with our call (3.1%).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Swedish June inflation review:  Well below target

AI Generated Content, Heteronomics

Heteronomics AI

AI Generated Content

<ul><li>US CPI inflation for June 2024 is 2.97% y-o-y, which is below the consensus and shows successfully moderating inflationary pressures.</li><li>Core inflation is higher at 3.3%, but the monthly impulse has reassuringly slowed to 0.1%.</li><li>Mixed PPI trends indicate some price pressures persist, but the Fed is increasingly likely to cut in September.</li></ul><div><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></div>

US CPI inflation for June 2024 is 2.97% y-o-y, which is below the consensus and shows successfully moderating inflationary pressures.Core inflation is higher at 3.3%, but the monthly impulse has reassuringly slowed to 0.1%.Mixed PPI trends indicate some price pressures persist, but the Fed is increasingly likely to cut in September.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

US CPI Inflation 2.97% y-o-y (consensus 3.1%) in Jun-24

Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

<ul>
<li>Inflation in the second half of June was above our expectations, at 0.53%, while core inflation was at 0.13%.</li>
<li>So far, Banco de Mexico has not signaled that its monetary policy decisions will weigh core over headline inflation.</li>
<li>Thus, it increases the likelihood for only one cut in the rest of the year.</li>
</ul>


Inflation in the second half of June was above our expectations, at 0.53%, while core inflation was at 0.13%.
So far, Banco de Mexico has not signaled that its monetary policy decisions will weigh core over headline inflation.
Thus, it increases the likelihood for only one cut in the rest of the year.


Actinver - Macro Daily: Inflation, June 2024