Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Bobcat Company specializes in design, manufacture, marketing and distribution of compact equipment for construction, rental, landscaping, agriculture, grounds maintenance, government, utility, industry and mining.

<ul>
<li>During Kim Byung-hwan's hearing, he acknowledged market concerns about the Doosan merger, increasing skepticism about Doosan's ability to maintain the original merger ratio.</li>
<li>Calculating Bobcat's net asset value using the net asset value method yields approximately ₩6.1T, derived from ₩5.95T in year-end equity plus ₩0.13T in adjustments.</li>
<li>Reassess arb trading opportunities; with no short hedge for Robotics, consider an outright long position in Bobcat if its swap price is revised and the spread widens.</li>
</ul>


During Kim Byung-hwan's hearing, he acknowledged market concerns about the Doosan merger, increasing skepticism about Doosan's ability to maintain the original merger ratio.
Calculating Bobcat's net asset value using the net asset value method yields approximately ₩6.1T, derived from ₩5.95T in year-end equity plus ₩0.13T in adjustments.
Reassess arb trading opportunities; with no short hedge for Robotics, consider an outright long position in Bobcat if its swap price is revised and the spread widens.


Robotics+Bobcat Merger: Merger Ratio Revision Possibility & Arb Spread Recalculations

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

Ryanair Holdings plc provides low fare passenger airline services to destinations in Europe.

<ul>
<li>Ryanair issued a stark warning on summer pricing today with 1Q25 results and we cut our FY25 net income 31% accordingly.</li>
<li>Our forecasts represent a re-set of unitary economics to pre-pandemic levels and it is difficult to plot improvement unless consolidation benefits or winter surgery help FY26.</li>
<li>Ryanair's cost advantage has widened markedly against peers, justifying a strategy of continued market share focus as competitors face greater challenges.</li>
</ul>


Ryanair issued a stark warning on summer pricing today with 1Q25 results and we cut our FY25 net income 31% accordingly.
Our forecasts represent a re-set of unitary economics to pre-pandemic levels and it is difficult to plot improvement unless consolidation benefits or winter surgery help FY26.
Ryanair's cost advantage has widened markedly against peers, justifying a strategy of continued market share focus as competitors face greater challenges.


Ryanair – FY25 Weakness Suggests a “normalization” and Prompts Structural Industry Questions

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha mainly provides marine transportation services and transportation management solution from international hub ports to both domestic and international ports. The Company operates container transportation, tramp and specialized carriers, and logistics and cruise lines. Nippon Yusen offers scheduled and unscheduled transportation services around the world.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-yusen-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12285:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP)</a> today announced an upward revision of H1 and full-year guidance. It was a dramatic increase.</li>
<li>The breakdown of the OP and RP numbers suggests a huge gain in containers in Q1 and into Q2. The breakdown of revenue and OP changes suggested substantial H2 conservatism.</li>
<li>On a capital-adjusted basis, Nippon Yusen is now slightly cheap vs its domestic peers and has shown a willingness to spend its excess cash on buybacks. Expect more.</li>
</ul>



Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP) today announced an upward revision of H1 and full-year guidance. It was a dramatic increase.
The breakdown of the OP and RP numbers suggests a huge gain in containers in Q1 and into Q2. The breakdown of revenue and OP changes suggested substantial H2 conservatism.
On a capital-adjusted basis, Nippon Yusen is now slightly cheap vs its domestic peers and has shown a willingness to spend its excess cash on buybacks. Expect more.


Nippon Yusen (9101) - Guidance Revision Up Still Conservative, Means More Capital Return Eventually

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk manufactures ceramic construction material for flooring. Through its subsidiary, the Company also distributes its products. The Company's factory is located in Tangerang, Banten.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arwana-citramulia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17042:1" rel="noopener">Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ)</a> is Indonesia's leading ceramic tile producer catering to the mass market but expanding into the higher-end porcelain tile space competing with Chinese imports at lower costs.</li>
<li>The recent move by the government to extend the gas subsidy for the industry bodes well for Arwana given the strides it has already made in reducing gas consumption.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arwana-citramulia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17042:1" rel="noopener">Arwana</a> continues to expand its capacity, especially in higher-margin porcelain tiles, which will help to drive future growth and profitability. Valuations are attractive as capacity-driven growth kicks in.</li>
</ul>



Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) is Indonesia's leading ceramic tile producer catering to the mass market but expanding into the higher-end porcelain tile space competing with Chinese imports at lower costs.
The recent move by the government to extend the gas subsidy for the industry bodes well for Arwana given the strides it has already made in reducing gas consumption.

Arwana continues to expand its capacity, especially in higher-margin porcelain tiles, which will help to drive future growth and profitability. Valuations are attractive as capacity-driven growth kicks in.


Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) - Top Notch Industrial with a Catalyst

Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Irate U.S. politicians have gunned down their own tech sector, triggering declines of 7% to 20% among leading semiconductor equipment stocks outside China. </li>
<li>We expect a bounce after such large declines - and further gains for Naura and AMEC in China. </li>
<li>Investors now face difficult questions about the future of Chinese demand, the sustainability of the AI boom, and valuations. We are not optimistic.</li>
</ul>


Irate U.S. politicians have gunned down their own tech sector, triggering declines of 7% to 20% among leading semiconductor equipment stocks outside China. 
We expect a bounce after such large declines - and further gains for Naura and AMEC in China. 
Investors now face difficult questions about the future of Chinese demand, the sustainability of the AI boom, and valuations. We are not optimistic.


Semiconductor Equipment Stocks: A Bounce Before the Reckoning

Industrials
Industrials Insights

Robotics+Bobcat Merger: Merger Ratio Revision Possibility & Arb Spread Recalculations

This post explores the potential revision of the Doosan Robotics & Bobcat merger ratio and recalculates the resulting arb spread.

Sanghyun Park

Ryanair – FY25 Weakness Suggests a “normalization” and Prompts Structural Industry Questions

We publish detailed analysis on Ryanair's pessimistic outlook, highlighting that FY25's performance simply reflects a normalization, and...

Neil Glynn

Nippon Yusen (9101) - Guidance Revision Up Still Conservative, Means More Capital Return Eventually

Nippon Yusen today set H1 and FY guidance higher. Revenues, OP, RP, and NP all higher with the bulk of the improvement in containers, but the H1/H2...

Travis Lundy

Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) - Top Notch Industrial with a Catalyst

Arwana continues to expand its capacity into higher-margin porcelain tiles, which will help to drive future growth and profitability. Valuations...

Angus Mackintosh

Semiconductor Equipment Stocks: A Bounce Before the Reckoning

Reports of tighter US sanctions and Trump's comments about Taiwan have broken the momentum of SPE stocks. A bounce seems likely, but a scenario of...

Scott Foster