Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

NU Holdings Ltd. of the Cayman Islands operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides loans and digital banking services, as well as issues, administrates, processes, and transfers payments to post-paid credit cards and equity investments in other entities. NU Holdings serves clients worldwide.

<ul>
<li>We take a more nuanced view on Nubank; the stock has corrected 16%+ from its high and, despite 28% YoY loan book growth, it has organically generated capital in 3Q24</li>
<li>Although Nubank is a digital bank success story, increased competition, especially from other fintechs, and a further deterioration in credit quality remain key business challenges going forward</li>
<li>Its recent share price correction and narrowing valuation gap leads us to recommend reducing short positions but, on balance, we remain sellers of Nubank; we stay positive on Bradesco</li>
</ul>


We take a more nuanced view on Nubank; the stock has corrected 16%+ from its high and, despite 28% YoY loan book growth, it has organically generated capital in 3Q24
Although Nubank is a digital bank success story, increased competition, especially from other fintechs, and a further deterioration in credit quality remain key business challenges going forward
Its recent share price correction and narrowing valuation gap leads us to recommend reducing short positions but, on balance, we remain sellers of Nubank; we stay positive on Bradesco


Nubank (NU US) – Gravity’s Pull and Key Business Factors

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Although the market is likely to revise down EPS estimates following weaker-than- expected 3Q24 earnings, using the KTX implied EPS tool, we find that most sectors (accounting for over 80% of total market capitalization) have partially priced in the negative factors, which limits the downside risk.</li><li>In addition, the SET Index's correction of -0.8% (since the 3Q24 earnings announcements) has kept the market risk premium (MRP) stable at 4.213%, matching the lower bound of the trading buy range at an MRP of 4.21% (-1 S.D.).</li><li>This suggests that the SET is at a level where the risk-reward appears attractive. </li></ul>

Although the market is likely to revise down EPS estimates following weaker-than- expected 3Q24 earnings, using the KTX implied EPS tool, we find that most sectors (accounting for over 80% of total market capitalization) have partially priced in the negative factors, which limits the downside risk.In addition, the SET Index's correction of -0.8% (since the 3Q24 earnings announcements) has kept the market risk premium (MRP) stable at 4.213%, matching the lower bound of the trading buy range at an MRP of 4.21% (-1 S.D.).This suggests that the SET is at a level where the risk-reward appears attractive. 

Special Report: Investment Strategy Post-3Q24 Earnings Reports - NOVEMBER 21, 2024

Co-Founder & CEO, Newmark Risk

Nicholas Pezolano

Co-Founder & CEO

Option analytics for institutional investors

Newmark Risk

Fin-tech company focused on providing option derived analytics for institutional investors.

We handle the complexity of options data so you don't have to.

- Data and Analytics available all in one place so you can focus on Strategy Development
- Custom Solutions for your data and/or portfolio needs
- Advisory services to lend our expertise

Knowledge is something that was meant to be shared and we provide insights to our clients and to the community via posting about our research findings.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>HKEX has launched weekly stock options for 10 listed equities on 2024-11-04.</li>
<li>We explore recent HKEX volume trends and believe this may be a positive catalyst for HKEX.</li>
<li>HKEX may prove to be a catalyst for more equity option product development in the region.</li>
</ul>


HKEX has launched weekly stock options for 10 listed equities on 2024-11-04.
We explore recent HKEX volume trends and believe this may be a positive catalyst for HKEX.
HKEX may prove to be a catalyst for more equity option product development in the region.


EQD | HKEX Weekly Equity Options off to a Strong Start

Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>For the first half of November, we forecast headline inflation at 0.40% bw, below the historical average due to the early discount season of “El Buen Fin”.</li>
<li>This would bring inflation to 4.59% YoY.</li>
<li>Our estimate of 0.40% bw is below the historical average of 0.54% bw for this period.</li>
</ul>


For the first half of November, we forecast headline inflation at 0.40% bw, below the historical average due to the early discount season of “El Buen Fin”.
This would bring inflation to 4.59% YoY.
Our estimate of 0.40% bw is below the historical average of 0.54% bw for this period.


Actinver Research - Macro Daily: Inflation 1h-Nov

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Japan Post Holdings Co. Ltd. operates post stations, banks, and insurance business. The Company offers letters and goods transportation services, stamp sales, deposits, loans, and insurance products.

<ul>
<li>H1 Results improved but did not raise guidance for the FY</li>
<li>Insurance subsidiary surprised with a buyback of shares after strong results</li>
<li>Bank subsidiary profits improved as expected as interest rates increase</li>
</ul>


H1 Results improved but did not raise guidance for the FY
Insurance subsidiary surprised with a buyback of shares after strong results
Bank subsidiary profits improved as expected as interest rates increase


Japan Post Holdings - Guidance Continues to Underwhelm

Financials
Follow the money trail

Nubank (NU US) – Gravity’s Pull and Key Business Factors

Its recent share price correction and narrowing valuation gap leads us to recommend reducing short positions but, on balance, we remain negative...

Victor Galliano

Special Report: Investment Strategy Post-3Q24 Earnings Reports - NOVEMBER 21, 2024

Listed companies reported a combined net profit (SET EPS) of Bt208bn in 3Q24, which was approximately 8.5% below the consensus estimate.

Krungthai XSpring

EQD | HKEX Weekly Equity Options off to a Strong Start

HKEX introduces weekly stock options, potentially boosting volume and driving further equity option product development in the region.

Nicholas Pezolano

Actinver Research - Macro Daily: Inflation 1h-Nov

For the first half of November, we forecast headline inflation at 0.40% bw, below the historical average due to the early discount season of “El...

Actinver

Japan Post Holdings - Guidance Continues to Underwhelm

Company's H1 results show improvement, but no guidance raise for FY; Financial subsidiaries gain from interest rate increases but holding company...

Rikki Malik

Nubank (NU US) – Gravity’s Pull and Key Business Factors

​Its recent share price correction and narrowing valuation gap leads us to recommend reducing short positions but, on balance, we remain negative...

Victor Galliano

Special Report: Investment Strategy Post-3Q24 Earnings Reports - NOVEMBER 21, 2024

Listed companies reported a combined net profit (SET EPS) of Bt208bn in 3Q24, which was approximately 8.5% below the consensus estimate.

Krungthai XSpring

EQD | HKEX Weekly Equity Options off to a Strong Start

​HKEX introduces weekly stock options, potentially boosting volume and driving further equity option product development in the region.

Nicholas Pezolano

Actinver Research - Macro Daily: Inflation 1h-Nov

For the first half of November, we forecast headline inflation at 0.40% bw, below the historical average due to the early discount season of “El...

Actinver

Japan Post Holdings - Guidance Continues to Underwhelm

​Company's H1 results show improvement, but no guidance raise for FY; Financial subsidiaries gain from interest rate increases but holding company...

Rikki Malik

Its recent share price correction and narrowing valuation gap leads us to recommend reducing short positions but, on balance, we remain negative...

HKEX introduces weekly stock options, potentially boosting volume and driving further equity option product development in the region.

Company's H1 results show improvement, but no guidance raise for FY; Financial subsidiaries gain from interest rate increases but holding company...