Equities. Commodities. Metals & Mining

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

Ultra Tech Cement Ltd. produces a wide range of cement products. This Company represents the cement operations of Larsen & Toubro which were spun-off into a separate entity in which Grasim Industries holds a majority interest.

<ul>
<li>FY25 EBITDA growth was primarily volume-driven, with EBITDA/ton declining to Rs988 due to flat realizations and initial dilution from acquisitions.</li>
<li> UltraTech is investing Rs1,800 crore to enter the cables and wires segment, targeting December 2026 commissioning and leveraging its existing retail and B2B networks.</li>
<li>At Rs12,000 per share, the stock trades at 51–53x FY26E EPS, supported by expectations of sustained volume growth and operational efficiency gains.</li>
</ul>


FY25 EBITDA growth was primarily volume-driven, with EBITDA/ton declining to Rs988 due to flat realizations and initial dilution from acquisitions.
 UltraTech is investing Rs1,800 crore to enter the cables and wires segment, targeting December 2026 commissioning and leveraging its existing retail and B2B networks.
At Rs12,000 per share, the stock trades at 51–53x FY26E EPS, supported by expectations of sustained volume growth and operational efficiency gains.


Strong Volumes Offset by Declining Margins and Capital Efficiency at UltraTech

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Pahalgam terrorist attack on April 25, 2025 caused a brief market correction, with the Nifty 50 falling by 0.86% which was in line with past trends.</li>
<li>Historically, geopolitical shocks like the Kargil War (1999) and Pulwama attack (2019) caused minimal corrections, with the Sensex rebounding by 33% post-Kargil and 400 points in two sessions after 26/11.</li>
<li>The market’s swift recovery, with the Nifty gaining 1.20% on April 28, 2025. Experts project a mild 5-10% correction if tensions escalate, followed by a return to fundamentals.</li>
</ul>


The Pahalgam terrorist attack on April 25, 2025 caused a brief market correction, with the Nifty 50 falling by 0.86% which was in line with past trends.
Historically, geopolitical shocks like the Kargil War (1999) and Pulwama attack (2019) caused minimal corrections, with the Sensex rebounding by 33% post-Kargil and 400 points in two sessions after 26/11.
The market’s swift recovery, with the Nifty gaining 1.20% on April 28, 2025. Experts project a mild 5-10% correction if tensions escalate, followed by a return to fundamentals.


Chartered Insights: Impact of Pahalgam Terrorist Attack On Markets

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Tanvi Arora

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Adani Green Energy Limited operates as a producer of renewable energy. The Company builds, owns, and operates power plants for solar and wind energy. Adani Green Energy serves customers worldwide.


<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Green Energy, Nickel Industries</li>
<li>The US equity market rebounded overnight to erase earlier losses in the day. The S&amp;P 500 was up for a fifth straight day (its longest streak since November 2024), albeit at just 0.1%.</li>
<li>In the US, the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index plunged to negative 35.8 (-14.1 e / -16.3 p) in March, reaching its lowest level since May 2020. The survey showed executives describing the situation as "chaos" and "insanity".</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Green Energy, Nickel Industries
The US equity market rebounded overnight to erase earlier losses in the day. The S&amp;P 500 was up for a fifth straight day (its longest streak since November 2024), albeit at just 0.1%.
In the US, the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index plunged to negative 35.8 (-14.1 e / -16.3 p) in March, reaching its lowest level since May 2020. The survey showed executives describing the situation as "chaos" and "insanity".


Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The past weeks have seen multiple geopolitical flashpoints emerge in Asia as various state and non-state actors take increasingly brazen steps to pursue their respective agendas.</li>
<li>The aftermath of the Kashmir terrorist attack has seen New Delhi and Islamabad ramp up retaliatory measures. Meanwhile, Beijing is seizing Sandy Clay and intensifying coercive tactics against Taiwan.</li>
<li>An inward-looking Washington and an unready China mean that there are no “adults in the room” who can moderate geopolitical risks, making such flashpoints more dangerous. </li>
</ul>


The past weeks have seen multiple geopolitical flashpoints emerge in Asia as various state and non-state actors take increasingly brazen steps to pursue their respective agendas.
The aftermath of the Kashmir terrorist attack has seen New Delhi and Islamabad ramp up retaliatory measures. Meanwhile, Beijing is seizing Sandy Clay and intensifying coercive tactics against Taiwan.
An inward-looking Washington and an unready China mean that there are no “adults in the room” who can moderate geopolitical risks, making such flashpoints more dangerous. 


Proliferating Political Risks A Feature, Not A Bug, Of The New World Disorder

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

<ul>
<li>Steelmakers are set for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling raw material costs boosting operating margins by INR 1,200-1,800 per tonne for steelmakers.</li>
<li>Lower input costs, particularly coking coal along with GOI's ADD will significantly improve profitability for steelmakers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jindal-steel-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6614:1" rel="noopener">Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN), </a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steel-authority-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14323:1" rel="noopener">Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN)  expects surge in PAT upto 700%.</a>
</li>
</ul>


Steelmakers are set for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling raw material costs boosting operating margins by INR 1,200-1,800 per tonne for steelmakers.
Lower input costs, particularly coking coal along with GOI's ADD will significantly improve profitability for steelmakers.

JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) , Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN) , Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN),  Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN)  expects surge in PAT upto 700%.



Themes of India: Revival of Indian Steel Industry Cycle In Q4 Feasible?