Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The Euro has weakened over the past week due to markets focusing on hawkish price and wage inflation, with more emphasis on activity growth rates and PMIs than on unemployment and underlying inflationary pressures.</li><li>The Flash HICP for November may not rise as expected due to base effects such as German package holidays, which is considered a temporary blip.</li><li>Despite most data warning against a 50bp cut, the RBNZ is likely to make this cut again, positioning it as an outlier.</li></ul>

The Euro has weakened over the past week due to markets focusing on hawkish price and wage inflation, with more emphasis on activity growth rates and PMIs than on unemployment and underlying inflationary pressures.The Flash HICP for November may not rise as expected due to base effects such as German package holidays, which is considered a temporary blip.Despite most data warning against a 50bp cut, the RBNZ is likely to make this cut again, positioning it as an outlier.

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Big Tech companies are already generating significant revenue from AI. Microsoft expects to reach $10 billion in AI revenue by the next quarter, making it their fastest-growing area.</li>
<li>In the third quarter of 2024 alone Microsoft, Google, and Meta collectively spent over $42 billion on AI infrastructure, primarily on building data centers and purchasing computing equipment.</li>
<li>Companies are projecting continued high spending on AI into 2025 to meet growing demand. However, challenges remain, including supply constraints for AI chips</li>
</ul>


Big Tech companies are already generating significant revenue from AI. Microsoft expects to reach $10 billion in AI revenue by the next quarter, making it their fastest-growing area.
In the third quarter of 2024 alone Microsoft, Google, and Meta collectively spent over $42 billion on AI infrastructure, primarily on building data centers and purchasing computing equipment.
Companies are projecting continued high spending on AI into 2025 to meet growing demand. However, challenges remain, including supply constraints for AI chips


Thematic Report: AI Wave- Big Tech's Spending Spree

<ul><li>Upwards revisions to Euro area labour costs and a jump in negotiated wage settlements extend cost growth inconsistent with a sustainable return to the 2% inflation target.</li><li>The ECB hopes this will subside swiftly in 2025, with productivity growth and squeezed profit margins helping contain inflation. But these hopes seem set to be disappointed.</li><li>Persistent wage pressures should prevent a 50bp rate cut in December and limit further cuts. Less dovish fundamentals feed bullish Euro seasonality, magnified by positioning.</li></ul>

Upwards revisions to Euro area labour costs and a jump in negotiated wage settlements extend cost growth inconsistent with a sustainable return to the 2% inflation target.The ECB hopes this will subside swiftly in 2025, with productivity growth and squeezed profit margins helping contain inflation. But these hopes seem set to be disappointed.Persistent wage pressures should prevent a 50bp rate cut in December and limit further cuts. Less dovish fundamentals feed bullish Euro seasonality, magnified by positioning.

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

OSE Immunotherapeutics SA is a biotechnology company based in France, developing immunotherapy products against invasive/metastatic late-stage cancers.

OSE Immunotherapeutics’ final analysis of the CoTikiS trial in ulcerative colitis (UC) confirmed that Lusvertikimab met the primary endpoint with statistical significance, highlighting its potential to offer a clinically meaningful solution for the condition. In our view, this marks a positive step forward for the candidate, which, to our knowledge, has a unique mechanism of action to address chronic inflammatory and autoimmune diseases. We believe that OSE plans to advance this programme to the next stages of development (Phase IIb or Phase III) once a partner is onboard. Based on the encouraging full results, we have increased our probability of success for Lusvertikimab in UC to 35% (from 17%), resulting in a valuation upgrade for OSE to €541.2m or €24.8/share (from €465.7m or €21.3/share previously).

OSE Immunotherapeutics’ final analysis of the CoTikiS trial in ulcerative colitis (UC) confirmed that Lusvertikimab met the primary endpoint with statistical significance, highlighting its potential to offer a clinically meaningful solution for the condition. In our view, this marks a positive step forward for the candidate, which, to our knowledge, has a unique mechanism of action to address chronic inflammatory and autoimmune diseases. We believe that OSE plans to advance this programme to the next stages of development (Phase IIb or Phase III) once a partner is onboard. Based on the encouraging full results, we have increased our probability of success for Lusvertikimab in UC to 35% (from 17%), resulting in a valuation upgrade for OSE to €541.2m or €24.8/share (from €465.7m or €21.3/share previously).

OSE Immunotherapeutics - Full Lusvertikimab results reflect potential in UC

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Vicat S.A. manufactures and sells cements, ready-mix concrete, aggregates and concrete pipes, as well as stucco and mortar for use in building construction internationally.  The Company also produces a variety of papers, medium-to-large capacity paper bags and chemicals and provides freight transportation services.

<ul><li>Vicat is a mid-sized global cement, aggregates, and ready-mix concrete operator with operations in 12 countries, primarily in developed markets.</li><li>Despite its strong presence in the industry, Vicat has traditionally traded at a discount compared to its European peers, but the discount has widened significantly in recent years.</li><li>With a solid balance sheet and attractive valuation metrics, Vicat's equity is currently trading at historically cheap levels, presenting a potential investment opportunity for investors.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Vicat is a mid-sized global cement, aggregates, and ready-mix concrete operator with operations in 12 countries, primarily in developed markets.Despite its strong presence in the industry, Vicat has traditionally traded at a discount compared to its European peers, but the discount has widened significantly in recent years.With a solid balance sheet and attractive valuation metrics, Vicat's equity is currently trading at historically cheap levels, presenting a potential investment opportunity for investors.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Vicat Sa (VCTP.PA) - Thursday, Aug 22, 2024