Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Japan's markets have again failed to break to new highs creating a potential for a double-top pattern.</li>
<li>Trump's policies which target lower interest rates and a weaker dollar will put pressure on Japan's markets as can be seen from the high correlation between the JPY and TPX.</li>
<li>Sectors such as trading companies, autos and semiconductors could see the most pressure under a Trump presidency.</li>
</ul>


Japan's markets have again failed to break to new highs creating a potential for a double-top pattern.
Trump's policies which target lower interest rates and a weaker dollar will put pressure on Japan's markets as can be seen from the high correlation between the JPY and TPX.
Sectors such as trading companies, autos and semiconductors could see the most pressure under a Trump presidency.


Trump Trades and the JAPAN Market Are Like Oil and Vinegar

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

Mahindra Cie Automotive / Equity Bottom-Up

Mahindra CIE Automotive Limited designs, manufactures, installs, and repairs automotive components. The Company manufactures automotive components including engine and steering components as well as various other forged metal products.

<ul><li>CIEAUTO's Q2CY24 revenue was down 1.2% YoY and 5.5% QoQ. EBITDA was down 2.8% YoY and 0.2% QoQ.</li><li>The company missed our estimates on the Indian and EU topline by approximately 1.2% and 4.8%, respectively.</li><li>Consolidated EBITDA stood at Rs 360 Cr (a slight beat by 2.9%), and EBITDA margins came in at 15.7% (an 80bps beat), down 26bps YoY but up 84bps QoQ. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CIEAUTO's Q2CY24 revenue was down 1.2% YoY and 5.5% QoQ. EBITDA was down 2.8% YoY and 0.2% QoQ.The company missed our estimates on the Indian and EU topline by approximately 1.2% and 4.8%, respectively.Consolidated EBITDA stood at Rs 360 Cr (a slight beat by 2.9%), and EBITDA margins came in at 15.7% (an 80bps beat), down 26bps YoY but up 84bps QoQ. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CIE Automotive India Ltd - Q2CY24 EBITDA Beats Estimates

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

China Meidong Auto Holdings Limited is an automobile dealership and maintenance group in China.

<ul><li>Maintain BUY. Despite strong headwinds that dealers faced, we still project Meidong’s 1H24 net profit to be positive with subsidies from Porsche and Lexus.</li><li>We expect industrywide headwinds to continue in 2H24 but we believe investors could turn a bit more positive on Meidong’s FY25 outlook given removal of the convertible bond (CB) burden and a new NEV model cycle for BMW.</li><li>We project 1H24E net profit to be RMB43mn assuming no significant impairment. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain BUY. Despite strong headwinds that dealers faced, we still project Meidong’s 1H24 net profit to be positive with subsidies from Porsche and Lexus.We expect industrywide headwinds to continue in 2H24 but we believe investors could turn a bit more positive on Meidong’s FY25 outlook given removal of the convertible bond (CB) burden and a new NEV model cycle for BMW.We project 1H24E net profit to be RMB43mn assuming no significant impairment. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Meidong Auto (1268 HK) - We Expect 1H24 to Be Still Profitable

Founder, BWS Financial Inc

Hamed Khorsand

Founder

Independent Stock Specific Research

BWS Financial Inc

BWS provides independent stock specific research focused on companies with distinct value that are going through a special situation where there is a tangible catalyst not priced in. The catalyst can be anything from new product, restructuring, M&A, management change, change in business strategy, etc. BWS’s focus is to understand the change and evaluate the potential return for investors.

BWS utilizes a self formed proprietary approach in discovering stocks by putting great emphasis on deep research. BWS does generate short recommendations following a similar criteria.

Symbotic Inc operates as an automation technology company. The Company specializes in supply chain with its end-to-end, AI-powered robotic, and software platform. Symbotic serves the retail, wholesale, and food companies worldwide.

<ul>
<li>We are initiating coverage of Symbotic (SYM) with a Sell Rating and $10 target. </li>
<li>The latest quarterly report from SYM suggests there could be little in the form of catalysts with the biggest news being related to a business owned by the CEO</li>
<li>We believe investors are putting too much reliance on SYM generating revenue from Wal-Mart (WMT) even though WMT is also using SYM’s competition for warehouse automation. </li>
</ul>


We are initiating coverage of Symbotic (SYM) with a Sell Rating and $10 target. 
The latest quarterly report from SYM suggests there could be little in the form of catalysts with the biggest news being related to a business owned by the CEO
We believe investors are putting too much reliance on SYM generating revenue from Wal-Mart (WMT) even though WMT is also using SYM’s competition for warehouse automation. 


Sunny Optical Technology Group / Equity Bottom-Up

Sunny Optical Technology Group Co., Limited designs and manufactures optical and optical related products. The Company's products include glass/plastic lenses, prisms, mobile phone camera modules, microscopes, surveying instruments, and other analytical instruments.

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong market trades about 30% below analysts' estimated 12 month target price.</li>
<li>Analysts are raising forecasts for<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> as it meets success with new phone rollouts and its EV business.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK)</a> had a positive profit alert and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minth-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9232:1" rel="noopener">Minth Group Ltd (425 HK)</a> is showing growth in its international business. Both are rated BUY from analysts.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong market trades about 30% below analysts' estimated 12 month target price.
Analysts are raising forecasts forXiaomi Corp (1810 HK) as it meets success with new phone rollouts and its EV business.  

Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK) had a positive profit alert and Minth Group Ltd (425 HK) is showing growth in its international business. Both are rated BUY from analysts.


BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (July 22)