Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Despite being a hated stock among the Super Sevens, Apple shares are up &gt;51% YTD this year. Apple has had little to claim for within captivating AI hype.</li>
<li>Apple is not a first mover. Its reputation is of a late comer. But its superior products with mind bending experiences blows competition out of the water.</li>
<li>Outperformance of iPhone 15, deepening services penetration, and roll out of AI-features will propel Apple to a USD 4 trillion market cap in 2024.</li>
</ul>


Despite being a hated stock among the Super Sevens, Apple shares are up &gt;51% YTD this year. Apple has had little to claim for within captivating AI hype.
Apple is not a first mover. Its reputation is of a late comer. But its superior products with mind bending experiences blows competition out of the water.
Outperformance of iPhone 15, deepening services penetration, and roll out of AI-features will propel Apple to a USD 4 trillion market cap in 2024.


2024 High Conviction: Apple’s AI Foray & Services to Power Its Journey to USD 4 Trillion Valuation

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

<ul>
<li>TSMC looks set for a significant recovery in top-line growth in 2024F, driven by continued faster-than-expected demand for its 3nm volume production leading to significantly improved overall ASP.</li>
<li>This should be supported by a concurrent improvement in the inventory cycle at major clients, helping recover TSMC’s utilisation back to historic norms.</li>
<li>Lower capital intensity, improving internal inventory levels, and accelerating top-line growth should all combine to drive record levels of Free Cash Flow generation during 2024F.</li>
</ul>


TSMC looks set for a significant recovery in top-line growth in 2024F, driven by continued faster-than-expected demand for its 3nm volume production leading to significantly improved overall ASP.
This should be supported by a concurrent improvement in the inventory cycle at major clients, helping recover TSMC’s utilisation back to historic norms.
Lower capital intensity, improving internal inventory levels, and accelerating top-line growth should all combine to drive record levels of Free Cash Flow generation during 2024F.


2024 High Conviction: TSMC (2330 TT) Is Perfectly Poised for Revenue and FCF Growth Acceleration

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

BILL Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers cloud-based applications that simplifies, digitizes, and automates back-office financial processes for small and mid-sized businesses. BILL Holdings serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>BILL Holdings shares significantly underperformed in 2024 with shares down ~37% year-to-date versus a 12% gain on the Nasdaq Composite Index.  </li>
<li>Shares saw sell-off post 3Q’FY24 earnings as results indicated a weak 4Q’FY24 guidance and customer churn while SMBs continue to be pressured by high inflation and interest rates.</li>
<li>My bear case implies a $31 valuation (vs. prior $25 PT), based on ~2x FY25E EV/Revenue and bear case FY25E revenue of $1368M, representing ~40% downside vs. current levels.</li>
</ul>


BILL Holdings shares significantly underperformed in 2024 with shares down ~37% year-to-date versus a 12% gain on the Nasdaq Composite Index.  
Shares saw sell-off post 3Q’FY24 earnings as results indicated a weak 4Q’FY24 guidance and customer churn while SMBs continue to be pressured by high inflation and interest rates.
My bear case implies a $31 valuation (vs. prior $25 PT), based on ~2x FY25E EV/Revenue and bear case FY25E revenue of $1368M, representing ~40% downside vs. current levels.


2024 High Conviction Update: BILL Holdings, End of the Share Repurchase Program and Customer Churn

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

ASAHI INTECC CO., LTD. manufactures medical tools as well as both medical and industrial-use stainless wire rope.  The Company's main products include catheters, guidewires, and miniature coils for endoscopic devices.

<ul>
<li>In Q3FY24, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-intecc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15915:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)</a> reported 8% YoY increase in revenue to ¥26B, ahead of estimate of ¥24B, mainly driven by the exchange rate impact of higher foreign currencies.</li>
<li>Higher SG&amp;A expenses impacted the profitability. Q3FY24 operating profit margin declined to 23.3% from 26.6% in Q3FY23, while net profit margin decreased to 16.0% from 18.5% during the same time.</li>
<li>In Q4FY24, revenue is expected to decline 3% YoY to ¥19.6B. Operating and net profits are anticipated to plunge 74% and 26%, YoY to ¥417M and ¥832M, respectively.</li>
</ul>


In Q3FY24, Asahi Intecc (7747 JP) reported 8% YoY increase in revenue to ¥26B, ahead of estimate of ¥24B, mainly driven by the exchange rate impact of higher foreign currencies.
Higher SG&amp;A expenses impacted the profitability. Q3FY24 operating profit margin declined to 23.3% from 26.6% in Q3FY23, while net profit margin decreased to 16.0% from 18.5% during the same time.
In Q4FY24, revenue is expected to decline 3% YoY to ¥19.6B. Operating and net profits are anticipated to plunge 74% and 26%, YoY to ¥417M and ¥832M, respectively.


2024 High Conviction Update: Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)- Q3FY24 Margins Take Hit; Tepid Q4 Expected

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Risk reward favours a shift in allocation between these markets.</li>
<li>Hong Kong washed out from a sentiment, valuation and positioning perspective.</li>
<li>Minimal investor expectations  and continual disappointment  have set the stage for a rally in 2024.</li>
</ul>


Risk reward favours a shift in allocation between these markets.
Hong Kong washed out from a sentiment, valuation and positioning perspective.
Minimal investor expectations  and continual disappointment  have set the stage for a rally in 2024.


2024 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of Japan into Hong Kong - Part 2

2024 High Conviction Ideas
High Conviction Ideas going into 2024

2024 High Conviction: Apple’s AI Foray & Services to Power Its Journey to USD 4 Trillion Valuation

Apple briefly overtook Microsoft as the most valuable firm measured by market cap. Share prices retreated relative to Microsoft by close of...

Mint Finance

2024 High Conviction: TSMC (2330 TT) Is Perfectly Poised for Revenue and FCF Growth Acceleration

Given that we have reached the peak of the Capex cycle, along with normalisation in its internal working capital, and with revenue growth set to...

Wium Malan, CFA

2024 High Conviction Update: Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)- Q3FY24 Margins Take Hit; Tepid Q4 Expected

Asahi Intecc reports 8% YoY revenue growth in Q3, but higher SG&A expenses dented profitability. Q4FY24 revenue is expected to decline 3% YoY with...

Tina Banerjee

2024 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of Japan into Hong Kong - Part 2

Since we published this piece, The HSI is up 12%, the HSCEI is up 16% and the HSCCI is up 17%. Since January's bottom, when we reiterated BUY,...

Rikki Malik

2024 High Conviction: Apple’s AI Foray & Services to Power Its Journey to USD 4 Trillion Valuation

Apple briefly overtook Microsoft as the most valuable firm measured by market cap. Share prices retreated relative to Microsoft by close of...

Mint Finance

2024 High Conviction: TSMC (2330 TT) Is Perfectly Poised for Revenue and FCF Growth Acceleration

Given that we have reached the peak of the Capex cycle, along with normalisation in its internal working capital, and with revenue growth set to...

Wium Malan, CFA

2024 High Conviction Update: BILL Holdings, End of the Share Repurchase Program and Customer Churn

Shares of BILL Holdings significantly underperformed due to customer churn, bleak macro environment and continued growth slowdown in a core SMB...

Andrei Zakharov

2024 High Conviction Update: Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)- Q3FY24 Margins Take Hit; Tepid Q4 Expected

​Asahi Intecc reports 8% YoY revenue growth in Q3, but higher SG&A expenses dented profitability. Q4FY24 revenue is expected to decline 3% YoY with...

Tina Banerjee

2024 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of Japan into Hong Kong - Part 2

Since we published this piece, The HSI is up 12%, the HSCEI is up 16% and the HSCCI is up 17%. Since January's bottom, when we reiterated BUY,...

Rikki Malik

Asahi Intecc reports 8% YoY revenue growth in Q3, but higher SG&A expenses dented profitability. Q4FY24 revenue is expected to decline 3% YoY with...