Fintech & EM-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Pru is currently trading below its embedded value, with the valuation assigning a negative value for the group’s new business profits.</li>
<li>Given its quality franchise across all key markets in Asia and continued strong new business recovery (to pre-Covid levels), this doesn’t seem to make sense at all.</li>
<li>We would continue underwriting the investment case of Pru in the coming year, with the stock offering significant upside potential. </li>
</ul>


Pru is currently trading below its embedded value, with the valuation assigning a negative value for the group’s new business profits.
Given its quality franchise across all key markets in Asia and continued strong new business recovery (to pre-Covid levels), this doesn’t seem to make sense at all.
We would continue underwriting the investment case of Pru in the coming year, with the stock offering significant upside potential. 


2024 High Conviction: Underwriting Prudential’s Investment Case into 2024

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The unfolding crisis is unlikely to have far-reaching impacts on Asia financial names, given their more robust deposit franchises and sector diversification.</li>
<li>That said, the Taiwanese financial holdcos do seem to be substantially more exposed than their peers in other markets owing to the USD fixed-income exposures at their life insurance units.</li>
<li>In a flight-to-quality scenario, we expect Fubon FHC to outperform the more geared Shin Kong FHC.</li>
</ul>


The unfolding crisis is unlikely to have far-reaching impacts on Asia financial names, given their more robust deposit franchises and sector diversification.
That said, the Taiwanese financial holdcos do seem to be substantially more exposed than their peers in other markets owing to the USD fixed-income exposures at their life insurance units.
In a flight-to-quality scenario, we expect Fubon FHC to outperform the more geared Shin Kong FHC.


Asia Financials: The Fallout from SVB and Silvergate | Where's the Biggest Asset/Liability Mismatch?

Private Capital Markets

FWD Group Holdings / Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The saga of CK Hutchison's Panama Canal Ports sale might also impact FWD due to tensions between China and the Li family.</li>
<li>Despite minimal mainland China presence, FWD faces exposure through its significant HK and Macau operations; HK and Macau contributed 40% - 50% of the group's VNB and operating profits.</li>
<li>After FWD's failed IPO attempts, PCG might consider a strategic sale for liquidity; FWD might offer a good strategic fit to Korean insurers looking to expand to Southeast Asia. </li>
</ul>


The saga of CK Hutchison's Panama Canal Ports sale might also impact FWD due to tensions between China and the Li family.
Despite minimal mainland China presence, FWD faces exposure through its significant HK and Macau operations; HK and Macau contributed 40% - 50% of the group's VNB and operating profits.
After FWD's failed IPO attempts, PCG might consider a strategic sale for liquidity; FWD might offer a good strategic fit to Korean insurers looking to expand to Southeast Asia. 


FWD: An Ideal Acquisition Target for Korean Insurers?

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Seoul Guarantee Insurance / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seoul-guarantee-insurance-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40123:1" rel="noopener">Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS)</a> is looking to raise around US$155m in its Korean IPO. </li>
<li>Seoul Guarantee Insurance (SGI) is a guarantee insurance firm operating predominantly in Korea.</li>
<li>In this note, we discuss its recent financials, and share our updated thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) is looking to raise around US$155m in its Korean IPO. 
Seoul Guarantee Insurance (SGI) is a guarantee insurance firm operating predominantly in Korea.
In this note, we discuss its recent financials, and share our updated thoughts on valuation.


Seoul Guarantee Insurance Pre-IPO Updated Thoughts on Valuation - Weaker Performance than Expected

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> IFA opines that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oversea-chinese-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1" rel="noopener">OCBC (OCBC SP)</a> S$25.60 offer is NOT fair but reasonable as it is below the valuation range of S$28.87-S$36.19 per share.</li>
<li>In response, OCBC declared the price final, and the final closing date is 12 July. Great Eastern will likely breach free float requirements and be suspended when the offer closes.</li>
<li>The offer will likely follow the Boustead Projects/Boustead Singapore blueprint, where SGX RegCo eventually (took seven months) enabled dissenters to receive a fair offer with a 24% uplift. </li>
</ul>



Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) IFA opines that the OCBC (OCBC SP) S$25.60 offer is NOT fair but reasonable as it is below the valuation range of S$28.87-S$36.19 per share.
In response, OCBC declared the price final, and the final closing date is 12 July. Great Eastern will likely breach free float requirements and be suspended when the offer closes.
The offer will likely follow the Boustead Projects/Boustead Singapore blueprint, where SGX RegCo eventually (took seven months) enabled dissenters to receive a fair offer with a 24% uplift. 


Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP): Playbook as OCBC Offer Declared Final, IFA Opines NOT Fair

United Kingdom

Prudential plc is an international company which provides a wide assortment of insurance and investment products and services. Insurance products include life, accident and health, property and casualty insurance, as well as fixed and variable annuities.  Financial and investment services include personal and group pensions, equity plans, mortgages and deposit accounts.

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Prudential PLC (PRU LN)

2024 High Conviction: Underwriting Prudential’s Investment Case into 2024

We continue underwriting Pru’s investment case into 2024, with the market now assigning a negative new business multiple. Any modest improvement in...

Alec Tseung

Asia Financials: The Fallout from SVB and Silvergate | Where's the Biggest Asset/Liability Mismatch?

For the most part, we expect Asia financial names to be able to withstand the SVB / Silvergate fallout. But risks in ALM are reminiscent of what...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

FWD: An Ideal Acquisition Target for Korean Insurers?

FWD also faces strategic crossroads amid Li family's China tensions, with its Hong Kong-heavy insurance business vulnerable despite minimal...

Alec Tseung

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Pre-IPO Updated Thoughts on Valuation - Weaker Performance than Expected

Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) is looking to raise around US$155m in its Korean IPO. In this note, we discuss its recent financials, and...

Clarence Chu

Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP): Playbook as OCBC Offer Declared Final, IFA Opines NOT Fair

Shares will likely breach float requirements and be suspended at offer close. While trading through terms, recent precedent suggests that investors...

Arun George

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