Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Z Holdings: FY19 Results Slightly Ahead of Guidance Range as Ad Revenue Growth Hits Three-Year High

Softbank Corp: Guidance for Stability and A (Very Modest) Dividend Boost

Softbank Corp Placement - Smaller Than Expected, but Overhang Weighs

Zozo Spreads Its Wings at Home and Overseas

Zozo Base Support Press - Short a Recovery

Zozo – Growth Cancellation Follows Dear Moon Cancellation

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We have been unabashedly negative on Zozo for closing in on two years and the stock is down 50% in that time. We remain negative. 4Q numbers improved slightly compared to the disastrous 3Q but this appears to have been driven by COVID and PayPay Mall and we do not consider these factors to be capable of sustaining significant growth. Active member growth was just 0.57% QoQ and we believe the underlying numbers support our stance that Zozo has hit the saturation wall.</p>

We have been unabashedly negative on Zozo for closing in on two years and the stock is down 50% in that time. We remain negative. 4Q numbers improved slightly compared to the disastrous 3Q but this appears to have been driven by COVID and PayPay Mall and we do not consider these factors to be capable of sustaining significant growth. Active member growth was just 0.57% QoQ and we believe the underlying numbers support our stance that Zozo has hit the saturation wall.

Zozo – 6% Revenue Growth Does Not Justify 15x EV/OP

ZOZO Inc

Zozo – 6% Revenue Growth Does Not Justify 15x EV/OP